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Keon Coleman Fantasy Forecast 2024

Coleman

Keon Coleman Fantasy Forecast 2024

Like many of his 2024 WR draft class peers, Keon Coleman is a multi-sport athlete. He devoted much of his youth to baseball, basketball and track. It wasn’t until 8th grade that Coleman started playing football. He continued with both basketball and football throughout high school, playing some prolific Ironman football and becoming his Louisiana high school’s (Opelousas Catholic) all-time leading scorer in basketball. Keon Coleman received somewhere in the vicinity of 50 collegiate offers. However, he was only interested in schools that would let him play both sports.

Recruiting and Collegiate Background

Keon Coleman’s recruiting history and collegiate experience are quite unique. Putting aside his adamance of playing both sports, Keon Coleman actually committed to two schools before opting out. Prior to his senior year, Coleman committed to Kansas but then backed out in October. By winter he was committed to Tulane only to again back out after Michigan State assured him that he would be able to play both sports at their school.

Spoiler alert: that didn’t work out. Coleman struggled to produce in both sports during his freshman year. He had more receptions (7) in football than he did points (5) in basketball. After a much better sophomore campaign in football in which he led the team in catches (58), yards (798), and TDs (7), which were all higher than teammate Jayden Reed’s stats, a decision was made for Coleman to focus solely on football and work to fix some nagging injuries. What I can’t determine, however, was exactly whose decision that was. The most I can find is that it was a “joint” one, but then we fast forward to April and see that Coleman enters the transfer portal to go to Florida State for his junior season. Usually where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

In Keon Coleman’s one season at FSU he quickly established a rapport with QB Jordan Travis and put in a near repeat performance of his sophomore season at Michigan. He had 50 grabs for 658 yards and 11 TDs on a team that many feel were snubbed from the college playoffs. Coleman felt he had put in enough to declare for the draft and skip his senior year.

Statistical and Athletic Notes

Below are the notes I made about Keon Coleman prior to this year’s draft.

  • 4 star recruit
  • Prolific high school basketball player
  • Had issues with college commitments as he was only looking for a school that would allow him to play bball and football. He also de-committed from both Kansas and Tulane after previously indicating he would attend them.
  • Entered transfer portal after sophomore season and made decision to drop basketball after hip and groin ailments
  • Played one season for FSU and is opting out of senior season for NFL Draft
  • Big bodied WR like DK Metcalf and Courtland Sutton, physically impressive, great ups, great hands, minimal drops, routinely catches 50/50 balls
  • Good on deep threats and as an end zone weapon
  • Consistently draws PI calls
  • Quick off the line and at top of routes
  • Experienced and willing to play special teams
  • Good blocker
  • Mixed bag of results at NFL Combine
  • His top speed is mediocre
  • Route running will need fine tuning at NFL level
  • Doesn’t consistently separate but has gotten by on physical strengths, which will be tougher in NFL 

Rookie Odds

Keon Coleman is currently +2500 to win offensive Rookie of the Year. While it’s unlikely that he earns this distinction, I don’t mind taking a stab at this price, considering that in the range of outcomes for his rookie year, he could become WR1 for the Bills and catch passes from Josh Allen.

The Good

Josh Allen and Coleman’s physical toughness is what’s good here. Keon Coleman routinely outfought defenders, and his gauntlet results at the combine were the best of this year’s WR class. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, Coleman has a great opportunity to make an immediate impact in the NFL. He has the physical traits to become a fan favorite in northwestern New York. Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, MVS, Chase Claypool, Mack Hollins, and KJ Hamler are all players with whom Coleman will have to compete in order to earn playing time, but it’s not like any one of them have ever been a WR1 themselves. 

The Bad

If asked to be a top starter right away, that could end miserably. There are many spots in Coleman’s game that need work. When looking at the Bills WR room, there are a variety of ways things could break. While this situation will need to be monitored throughout camp, giving the keys to Coleman to immediately become WR1 here seems both foolhardy and an unlikely scenario. 

2023 Redraft Fantasy Outlook

Keon Coleman is going around 114th overall, right near fellow rookie WR Brian Thomas. If gambling on a rookie WR is something you want to do at this stage of the draft, then I can stomach reaching for Coleman here as I believe he has the higher and likelier upside solely because he will be in the Bills offense with Allen throwing him passes. With Diggs and Davis gone, there are north of 200 targets up for grabs in Buffalo.

Dynasty Outlook

I see this going one of two ways, and it’s really going to depend on how Buffalo works Keon Coleman into their offense that determines it. If the Bills roll him out there early in the season to be their primary WR, then I think that hurts Coleman’s development and thus his fantasy ceiling in future years. If they take their time and develop him properly, well then that sucks for year one but is likely better for future seasons. Coleman is going to be someone I keep my eyes on during camps and the preseason so as to better assess where he should be drafted in both seasonal and dynasty.

Bold Prediction

While the collegiate production was nice, the overall performance never measured up to the expectations. Add in injuries, 2 de-commitments, and a transfer, and Coleman seems to me like someone who is out for himself before team. This is not what the Bills need right now. Coleman is going to have some success with this offense, but I’ll be surprised if he is in Buffalo beyond his rookie contract.

Fun Fact

Coleman likes to match his mouthpiece and wristband with his opponent’s colors.

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