Kenneth Walker III Fantasy 2025
Kenneth Walker didn’t quite have the season I was expecting in 2024 under OC Ryan Grubb’s highly touted offense. There are few reasons for that. For starters, new offenses can take time to adjust to, and it looked like Geno Smith and company struggled with that for a bit. Additionally, the offensive line play was subpar by NFL standards. Third, Walker incurred a few injuries, including a season-ending ankle injury in week 16. Additionally, game scripts and Zach Charbonnet’s presence certainly factored in as well.
But what about 2025? Walker is currently going off the board around pick #44 in standard leagues. That’s in the middle of the 4th round. Is that the correct price for him? Is it an overpay? Let’s figure that out.
Seattle Seahawks Changes
We have a new OC and new offensive line coach in town here in Seattle. Klint Kubiak takes over after one year of Ryan Grubb. I’m not sure how much of a fair chance Grubb was given in the NFL ranks, as he got only one year in Seattle. However, he is now off to Alabama and back to college to serve as their OC.
Last year’s offensive line for the Seahawks was not good. HC Mike MacDonald clearly found this unacceptable, which is likely why Kubiak has brought line coach John Benton and run game coordinator Rick Dennison along with him. The team drafted Grey Zabel in the first round to hopefully play LG and join LT Charles Cross in solidifying the left side of the line. The right side of the line is where improvements must be made, and if I’m following Kubiak’s, Dennison’s, and Benton’s track records, there likely will be.
Also, an era is over in Seattle as both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are no longer with this team. QB Geno Smith is gone as well, and Sam Darnold is here after recently reviving his career in Minnesota.
What Are the Odds?
- MVP +50,000 to +75,000 depending on which book you are using
- OPOY +10,000
- Comeback Player of the Year +8,000
- Most rushing yards +4700 to +7500
- O/U 875.5 rushing yards
- O/U 6.5 rushing TDs
Obviously, if you are going to dip into the MVP or most rushing yards props, I would urge you to find the best possible price. MVP is probably unattainable, but I honestly wouldn’t write off the most rushing yards prop. See below for the coaching factor in Walker’s upcoming year for why.
The rushing yard and rushing TDs over/unders I’m not supremely confident about, but this backfield should eclipse over 1300 yards rushing and 10 TDs, it just depends on what kind of a factor Charbonnet will be as well as whether or not Walker can stay healthy.
I’m staying away from Comeback Player of the Year. Walker didn’t miss that much time in 2024 to truly be in the front running for it.
Fantasy Impact
Kubiak, Dennison, and Benton have track records of success. Kubiak and Dennison specifically have engineered huge fantasy years for guys like Arian Foster, Dalvin Cook, CMC, and as recently as last year in New Orleans with Alvin Kamara. The hiring of these coaches, as well as the selection of Grey Zabel in the first round, is Seattle telling us what they want to do on offense: run the ball.
This group of coaches is well known for instituting zone blocking schemes and West Coast offenses. They’ve been doing it for years. Zabel was one of the best linemen in college in such a scheme, and Sam Darnold has performed well in such offenses, even working with this group of coaches when he was in San Francisco two seasons ago.
All this suggests to me that drafting Ken Walker in the 4th round is a perfectly reasonable move. At pick 44 he is the 16th RB off the board. He possesses the ability and the coaching scheme to be a top-10 performer at the position. I would just make sure that I also get Zach Charbonnet around pick 104 as well. The Seahawks’ backfield will produce a ton in 2025, so I want to ensure I have access to all of it.
