Fantasy Football

Justin Fields Fantasy Outlook 2023

By Will Holtz

Posted on June 19, 2023

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Justin Fields Fantasy Outlook 2023

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields was incredible in the second half of the 2022 season, but there’s reason to believe he can be even better this year by turning a half-season of success into a full season of dominance in 2023.

Fields unleashed his running ability last year, showing remarkable improvement from his rookie season to his sophomore season. In 2021, the Bears quarterback rushed for 420 yards and two touchdowns on 5.8 yards per carry. In 2022, he totaled 1,143 yards on the ground, scored eight times with his legs, and gained a whopping 7.1 yards per attempt.

What Are The Odds?

Sometimes the best season fantasy preview of a player’s performance is to look at NFL Future odds. Currently, Justin Fields passing yard odds are set at (over/under) 2959, which averages out to be 174 yards per game if he were to play the whole season. These are very tempting odds as the Bears should be much improved. I’m sure Illinois sports fans that are of legal gambling age would love to jump at these odds, find more information here.

In just his second season in the NFL, Fields set multiple records as a dual-threat quarterback. He set the Bears’ single-season record for most rushing yards by a QB, rushed for the most yards by a QB over a five-game stretch in the Super Bowl era, and set the NFL’s single-game rushing record by a QB after notching 178 yards on 15 carries in Week 9 against Miami. Needless to say, Fields is a special talent.

While passing is the most obvious knock for the 24-year-old quarterback, it is worth noting that he showed signs of improvement last season. In the 12 games he played during his rookie season, Fields was only able to find the endzone seven times through the air while giving up 10 interceptions in the process. Last season, however, he threw for 17 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions in 15 games. His touchdown to interception ratio skyrocketed from year one to year two and it shouldn’t go unnoticed, especially considering the lack of talent in the receiving department.

Entering the 2023 season, the former Ohio State quarterback will be surrounded by better weapons than he’s ever had so far during his time in Chicago. Last year’s top target Darnell Mooney will be returning for the Bears after having surgery on his ankle in 2022 and trade deadline acquisition Chase Claypool is set to play his first full season with the Bears. Fields will also have options at the tight end position with Cole Kmet returning alongside newly signed Robert Tonyan. However, the most anticipated weapon for Chicago this season is DJ Moore. The five-year veteran wide receiver was acquired this offseason in a trade with Carolina that landed the Panthers the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Not only is Moore regarded as the WR1 entering the season, but he’s also expected to be the best talent on offense Justin Fields has had around him since being drafted in 2021. Moore failed to reach 1,000 yards last season due to a quarterback carousel in Carolina but gained over 1,100 yards in the previous three seasons. This is leaps and bounds more consistent than what Justin Fields has experienced so far.

The situation surrounding the Chicago signal-caller has been frustrating fantasy managers over the last two years. In his rookie year, Allen Robinson was supposed to be the top target but was quickly overtaken by Mooney as Robinson only started nine games alongside Fields. Last season, Mooney was expected to break out for Chicago, only to get off to a slow start before eventually having season-ending surgery. These types of struggles should be in the rearview mirror for the Bears considering their newfound pass-catching depth.

Fantasy ADP

As of early June, Fields’ ADP is at 44 with five quarterbacks being drafted ahead of him. This is consistent with his finish as the QB6 last season, but I still believe he can perform on an even higher level and I think that starts this season.

As a fantasy manager, I always wait to take a quarterback. This year, I can execute that same strategy while also snagging one of the most electrifying QBs with an extremely high ceiling. If he can take advantage of the plethora of weapons he’s now surrounded by and maintain his explosiveness as a runner, Justin Fields has the potential to finish as a top-three quarterback in fantasy football this year.