John Brown Fantasy 2017
After a disappointing 2016 season marred by injury, the Arizona Cardinals seem confident that John Brown can return to something like his best in 2017. But regarding fantasy football, is John Brown’s best worth having on your fantasy team?
We’ve seen that Brown doesn’t exactly find the end zone an awful lot, but does he make up for this by racking up yardage? The table below shows his yardage totals by game and the percentage of his games in which he hit that mark.
In short, he has amassed 50 yards or less in 58.7% of his career games. His shortage of 100-yard games is a major knock on his fantasy appeal, as those are ten points that he could get without having the bother of scoring touchdowns. Incidentally, he has scored a touchdown in just one of his 100-yard games. So it wouldn’t be fair to call him a feast or famine, as there is very rarely a feast.
As you would expect given the above numbers, he has been a fantasy match winner very rarely in his NFL career. Here are his weekly finishes in standard scoring leagues (courtesy of NFL.com).
In exactly half of his career weeks, he has finished as the WR49 or worse. Of all the numbers I have gathered for Smoky, this was by far the most surprising. A consistent WR5 is not someone you can ever trust to deliver in fantasy football. I don’t like to use the term WR5. I think my term is much more appropriate. Bench. Or, if you want to go even stronger, Waiver Wire.
Of course, John Brown did battle a serious medical condition in 2016, and the difference regarding numbers between his “breakout” 2015 campaign and last year are marked. But in three seasons, we’ve seen one decent season and two very ordinary one. It would be foolish to ignore the weight of probability, in this case, I believe.
Between January and February, according to the mock drafters over at Fantasy Football Calculator, John Brown was being taken on average in the 14th round. With a new rookie class soon to enter the league, I would not be stunned if this ADP dropped dramatically, with Smoky starting the 2017 fantasy season on the waiver wire in many leagues. His previous stats point to a player whose ceiling is a WR3, and a low-end one at that. Speaking as someone who likes to draft, and acquires talent during the season, for upside, I’m struggling to see any for John Brown.