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Jets WR Robby Anderson: Fantasy Diamond in the Rough?

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Robby Anderson Fantasy Value

Recently I was discussing “sleeper” candidates with a buddy of mine whom I’ve played fantasy football with for years. The normal names were flying around, guys like Jared Goff, Alvin Kamara, Paul Richardson, and Chris Conley were all mentioned. Except, when I threw out the name Robby Anderson, my favorite sleeper candidate for 2017,  he responded with, “who the heck is that”?

I told him not to feel bad, many fantasy owners don’t recognize his name. In fact, with the exception of Bilal Powell, most fantasy football owners didn’t have a single New York Jet player on their draft board this summer. Can you blame them? I heard that the Jets Betway’s betting odds have them pegged to win just three games in 2017.

Who is Robby Anderson?

Anderson is a second-year receiver out of Temple University, who came into the 2016 NFL Combine boasting 6’3” size and 4.34 speed in the 40-yard dash. Although, his thin frame (190 lbs) and lack of elite production in college did ultimately result in being selected by the Jets as an undrafted free agent last year.

So, why you may ask, am I so infatuated with Mr. Anderson? The answer comes down to the most important factor in fantasy football- opportunity. Not only the opportunity to play but start for the Jets as the number one wide receiver. This ascension up the depth chart can be contributed to two main factors. First being the departure of their top two receiving options in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Additionally, the Jets lost Quincy Enunwa to a season ending neck injury, making Anderson the de facto starting wideout.

With the loss of the Jets’ top 3 receiving options from last season coupled with the fact that the Jets will most likely be playing from behind in a majority of their contests, Anderson’s opportunity is exciting. Considering the fact that over the last three years the top receiver in the Jets’ offense has averaged 135 targets per year. Two of those seasons were under the current head coach Todd Bowles.

I expect that average of 135 targets to be Anderson’s goal for the season but wouldn’t be surprised if he sees closer to 150 targets. Admittedly, the Jets’ QB situation isn’t ideal, so I don’t expect a very high catch rate for Anderson. Somewhere around 54-56% seems reasonable, which would equate to approximately 73-76 catches on 135 targets. If we combine those 73 receptions with his average of 13.98 yards per catch from last season, we can reasonably expect Anderson to reach the magical 1,000-yard mark. Touchdowns will be hard to come by in the Jets offense, in my opinion, making his TD total hard to predict. If I had to take an educated guess, I’d say 5 scores are well within reach for Anderson this season.

 

All together my estimate of 73-1000-5 would mean 130 fantasy points according to NFL standard scoring system, almost identical to what Mike Wallace did last season with the Ravens. Not a bad potential comparison for a guy who’s ADP, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, is hovering around 13.08. Thus making Anderson the cheapest option possible to get a potential top 30 WR in your draft this year. If you’ve already drafted go check your waiver wire there’s a good chance Anderson waiting to be claimed.

Jermaine Kearse Traded to the Jets

On Friday, the Jets acquired WR Jermaine Kearse and a 2018 second-round pick from the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for DT Sheldon Richardson. A lot of people feel that Kearse could work his way into a role that could hurt Anderson’s value. Kearse is 27-years-old and was valued for his blocking by the Seahawks but has struggled to create separation as a receiver and was one of the league’s least efficient pass catchers. I’m not concerned at all by the presence of Kearse, however, I do like the fact that the Jets have added someone with experience that should help the team’s passing group as a whole.

 

 

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About the author

Tanner Bollers

Tanner is a Colorado Native and 3rd generation Denver Broncos season ticket holder. He grew up on a Cattle Ranch in North East Colorado. He began playing Fantasy Football in '08 while attending College at the University of Northern Colorado, and has been a Dynasty player since 2012. Tanner resides in the Colorado Springs area where he is an avid fisherman/hiker and enjoys pretty much anything outdoors (like most Coloradans). He has been married to his wonderful wife, Nicole since June 2014. And they are expecting a beautiful baby girl January 2017. Tanner has recently taken up Home Brewing, and if he doesn't blow anything up, aspires to own his own Brewery someday.

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