Gridiron Experts

Jameis Winston Suspension Moves Bucs Team Win Odds in 2018

If it feels like there has been a high number of NFL suspensions in 2018, you’re right; there has been. But in terms of it being a record-setting year, 2018 is actually at a steady pace for matching historical trends. There have been 19 suspensions from January 1st to July 4th in 2018. That matches a total from 2017 and is up one from 2016. However, it’s the names on this years list that are arguably bigger concerning fantasy football and offensive production that has people concerned.

NFL 2018 Suspensions

  1. WR Josh Huff 2 games New Orleans Saints (Mar 18th)
  2. DE Corey Liuget 4 games Los Angeles Chargers (Mar 23rd)
  3. DE Josh Mauro 4 games New York Giants (Mar 18th)
  4. LB Thomas Davis Sr. 4 games Carolina Panthers (Apr 6th)
  5. LB Vontaze Burfict 4 games Cincinnati Bengals (Apr 12th)
  6. QB Mark Sanchez 4 games Free agent (Apr 13th)
  7. LB Kentrell Brothers 4 games Minnesota Vikings (Apr 20th)
  8. TE Kent Taylor 4 games Carolina Panthers (Apr 20th)
  9. WR Cayleb Jones 4 games Minnesota Vikings (Apr 30th)
  10. OL Vadal Alexander 4 games Oakland Raiders (May 1st)
  11. LB Akeem Ayers 4 games New York Giants (May 4th)
  12. RB Mark Ingram 4 games New Orleans Saints (May 8th)
  13. TE Demetrius Harris 1 game Kansas City Chiefs (May 22nd)
  14. WR Victor Bolden Jr. 4 games San Francisco 49ers (Jun 1st)
  15. WR Julian Edelman 4 games New England Patriots (Jun 6)
  16. DE David Irving 4 games Dallas Cowboys (Jun 15th)
  17. QB Jameis Winston 3 games Tampa Bay Bucs (June 28th)
  18. RB Robert Turbin 4 games Indianapolis Colts (Jun 29th)
  19. RB Aaron Jones 2 games Green Bay Packers (Jul 3rd)

The list continues here.

I’m a big fantasy football fan, but I’m also a sports betting Canadian based in Vancouver. For years the wife and I (before we had kids) would spend a vacation (or two) per year in Las Vegas. I think I’ve been to Vegas over 15 times and my second home would be the sportsbooks. Because of that, my eyes are drawn to betting odds and how they move. I love seeing trends throughout the NFL week or shifts in the odds. I feel it’s a great indication of how high-rollers view teams, players or matchups. Being an Eagles fan, I was extremely nervous about Super Bowl 52, until I started seeing more and more large bets being placed on the Eagles. The line moved leading up to that game because of the large wagers that were paced, and I feel with the high number of suspensions to key players this season, we could start to see a shift in future odds for the 2018 season.

 Jameis Winston

Suspended Three Games

Since Jameis Winston has been suspended three games for violating the league’s personal-conduct policy, the season win total odds for the Buccaneers has moved from over 7.5 (-130) to 6 (-140). You may not think that’s a significant change, but the suspension was just official last week. Which means the line could continue to move based on those placing bets. Most sports betting sites have simply taken down Team win odds to re-adjust, and I’m curious to see the new list.

 

Mike Evans Fantasy stock has fallen considerably since the suspension to his quarterback, however, at what point do you start to think things have gone too far? If the Bucs are going to be a bad team in 2018, wouldn’t that mean they’ll continuously be trailing in games and will need to air it out? Some may not see the team win totals having any effect on Buccaneer’s fantasy output at all as Ryan Fitzpatrick was a capable backup in relief last season, but trends and recency bias play a significant role on things like average draft position.

My Thoughts

I’m predicting the Buc’s low betting odds and dropped fantasy output ADP of players like Mike Evans, levels out and becomes value targets for those who can see past the noise. The suspension happened early enough into the year that the team won’t be throwing Ryan Fitzpatrick into the fire. The Bucs face the Saints, Eagles, and Steelers in the first three weeks of the season without their starting QB, but Tampa would have been arguably considered underdogs in those games anyways. With an early week five bye, the Bucs could re-group to a position that is respectable in 2018.

Regarding betting odds, I think over six wins is possible; however, I’m still hoping the Buc’s make a move to put themselves in a better position for the month of September. Currently, there is nothing but rumors for the Bucs to make a trade to help upgrade their QB position, but GM Jason Licht does have time. Albert Breer for SI. com has a great take on the situation for the team that is worth checking out if you want to explore this further.

In closing, I want to remind everyone playing fantasy football in 2018 or those betting on NFL futures to not let buzzing headlines sway you. Every year there are trends to follow and trends to avoid. Use your best judgment and filter out the background noise.

 

 

Thanks for Reading

Mike Rigz

Mike is the founding member at Gridiron Experts with over 1000+ articles credited to his name. With over 25 years of fantasy experience, Mike has a very unique style when picking sleepers and gems. He has always had an outside the box look on the NFL and rarely gets sucked into the hype over players or buzzing offenses. Mike has three kids and lives on the West Coast. He's happily married to a beautiful woman who also loves sports. Sundays are spent with friends and family watching games from opening kickoff to well into the evenings.

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