Gridiron 3X: Top Projected DraftKings Plays Week 5
While navigating through the Coronavirus cases in the NFL might seem like a minefield, Week 5 is still scheduled to go off. While the postponement of games and time changes might set you into a frenzy, GridironExperts is here to help and this particular article is here to help you win big in Daily Fantasy.
One of the most effective ways to help you win big on Draft Kings is to project which players can score three times the amount of their weekly price. Determining which players can achieve that is the exact purpose of this weekly article that Gridiron Experts has titled, 3X.
What is 3X
If you are looking for an explanation as to what we mean by a player delivering three times their weekly salary, let’s use Jonathan Taylor as an example.
Headed into his Week 5 matchup against the Browns, Taylor carries a DraftKings’ price tag of $6,200. For the Colts’ rookie to reach our 3X expectations, he will need to score 18.6 points (6,200 x 3).
One other thing I like to bring to your attention before we begin is explaining what we mean by saying that a player exceeds 3X expectations by a certain amount of points. For example, George Kittle had a price tag of $6,300 and that would mean that his 3X expectations were for the 49ers tight end to score 18.9. points. Kittle wound up scoring an astonishing 43.1 fantasy points. This would mean that Kittle exceeded his expectations by 24.2 points (43.1-18.9).
Let’s find out who can you win big in Week 5.
Joe Burrow ($6,000)
In Week 1 of this season, Joe Burrow finished just one point shy of his 3X expectations. In the three games that have followed, the Bengals rookie has successfully scored three times his DraftKings salary. While the Baltimore Ravens might sound like an intimidating play this week, I have full confidence that Burrow can exceed his 3X expectations (18 points) yet again.
Last season, the Ravens allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. This season has been a different story as the Ravens are allowing the ninth-most points to the position. As if that is not alarming enough, the defense has already allowed 40% of the touchdown passes they allowed last season. One more alarming comparison from season-to-season for the Ravens, last season, the defending AFC North champions had just one week in which they allowed more than 20-points to an opposing quarterback. In the last two weeks, the Ravens have had back-to-back weeks with allowing 20 or more points.
All of this sounds promising for Burrow who has had six touchdown passes and just one interception in his last three games. If you are looking for a Bengals stack this week, I would highly recommend Tyler Boyd who is priced at $6,200. The best part of all of this, Burrow is priced cheaper than he has been in weeks.
Josh Allen ($7,500)
Thanks to the Titans, this nomination comes with a disclaimer. This game has moved to Tuesday, and one would expect this game to be part of Week 5. This might wind up being an option for ‘Showdown Captain Mode‘ as I’m sure this will be moved from the weekend slate. While I will list some other 3X options below, here are my thoughts on Josh Allen.
Titans-Bills game scheduled for Sunday is being moved to Tuesday at 6 pm as long as there are no more positive tests with Tennessee, per sources.
Bills-Chiefs game being switched from next Thursday to Sunday but goes back it more positive tests in Tennessee, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 8, 2020
There are a handful of quarterbacks that are playing at a high level consistently. One of those signal-callers is Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. DraftKings is raising the stakes in Week 5 as Allen is more expensive than ever and will need to score 22.5 fantasy points to reach his 3X expectations. Up next for Allen and the Bills, as previously mentioned, are the Titans.
Without even venturing into which Titans will take the field, I would like to focus on what the Titans were doing while they were on the field. In their previous two games, the Titans defense allowed 20 or more fantasy points to the quarterback position. That would mark just the third time since 2018 that they allowed that many points in back-to-back games.
On top of Allen’s impressive 12 touchdown passes is his well-documented ability to run. So far this season, Allen has had three-rushing touchdowns and is on pace to be the first quarterback since Cam Newton in 2015 to have double-digit rushing touchdowns. Something will have to give this Sunday as the Titans, between the 2019 and 2020 season, have allowed just one rushing touchdown to a quarterback.
Regardless of how the running game shakes out between Allen and the Titans shakes out, the Bills quarterback has averaged 35.6 fantasy points over the last three weeks. The difference between Allen’s average and is 3X expectations is 13.1 points. With that huge gap, even if the Titans can contain Allen, the Bills signal-caller can still cash in on his 3X goal.
Other 3X Options: Dak Prescott ($7,400), Teddy Bridgewater ($5,900), Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500)
Mike Davis ($6,400)
Following the high-ankle sprain to Christian McCaffrey, redraft fantasy goers ran to their waiver wires, and the daily fantasy community yelled for a price-check on Mike Davis. It was a nice change of pace as we went from investing $10,000 in McCaffrey to less than $6,000 on Davis. Following two-straight games of 20+ fantasy points, DraftKings has smartened up and raised the price of Davis to $6,400 in Week 5. Be that as it may, with the Panthers set to face the Falcons, I still like the odds for Davis to make good on his 3X expectations (19.2 points).
Four weeks into the season, the Falcons are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the running back position. That would include Week 1 and 4 in which the Flacons were top-5 in points allowed. In case you’re wondering about Week 2 and 3, those games came against teams that are top-12 in fewest rushing attempts. In conclusion, in the case of the Falcons defense, with heavy usage comes fantasy points allowed. Fire up Davis with confidence.
Mike Davis is your early favorite for waiver wire MVP pic.twitter.com/Feir5YvOby
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 4, 2020
Josh Jacobs ($6,300)
Speaking of Davis and the Carolina Panthers, Josh Jacobs had a fantasy-explosion in Week 1 against the Panthers. In that game, Jacobs would be score 35.9 fantasy points and would finish as the number one running back. In his last three games since then, Jacobs has combined for just 34.1 fantasy points. Despite the sluggish three weeks, Week 5 could be the week Jacobs supporters have been expecting.
For Jacobs to reach his 3X expectations this weekend, he will need to score 18.9 fantasy points. Up next for the Raiders will be a trip to Arrowhead to take on a Chiefs defense that, on a per-game basis, is allowing an average of 25.2 fantasy points to running backs. Last week, the Chiefs allowed the eleventh-most points to the running back position as they allowed 31.9 points. That would be the second time this season that the Chiefs allowed 30 or more fantasy points in a game.
Despite the sluggish three games from Jacobs, the workload has been a constant. Headed into Week 5, Jacobs leads the league in carries and is tied for eighth in targets at the position. While the Raiders playing this weekend is going to be dictated by positive Covid-19 tests, if the game takes place, Jacobs will bounce-back.
Other 3X Options: James Robinson ($6,700), Kareem Hunt ($6,500), Todd Gurley ($5,700), Antonio Gibson ($5,000)
Will Fuller ($6,600)
Despite a non-existent Week 2, Will Fuller sits at eighteenth in fantasy points scored by a wide receiver. That would include two games with 20 or more fantasy points. For Fuller to reach his 3X expectations in Week 5, the boom or bust pass catcher will need to score 19.8 fantasy points.
In three career games against the Jaguars, Fuller has averaged just 10-points per game. Even while the Jaguars are currently in the top-10 in fewest points allowed to wide receivers, this defense is far from what Fuller has been used to seeing in those previous games. On top of that, those were also games in which DeAndre Hopkins was still his teammate.
Then there is the coaching change, and while I do not suggest that the Texans will only play well because of a coaching change, the playcalling will not be under Bill O’Brien’s thumb. The thought process would be that playcalling will gear towards getting their franchise quarterback cooking. If DeShaun Watson is throwing the ball and Will Fuller is healthy, the production for Fuller will be there. While analysts tend to get creative with statistics, sometimes it is that simple.
It would also be worth mentioning in Fuller’s favor that the Jaguars are in the top-10 in most points allowed to the quarterback position. So while the Jaguars have statistically played well against wide receivers, they are still allowing points to quarterbacks. Watson will continue to target his favorite pass catcher, Will Fuller, no matter what numbers might suggest.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,000)
Before the season’s start, one of the fantasy questions coming out of Dallas was which Cowboys’ wide receiver would be the odd man out. Four weeks into the season, all indications are the CeeDee Lamb is far from the odd-man-out. Headed into this weekend, Lamb is seventeenth at his position in Draft Kings scoring. That would include two games with 20 or more fantasy points and two touchdowns last Sunday.
In most of these blurbs, the next step would be to focus on the Cowboys opponent, the Giants. The only problem is the Cowboys’ biggest enemy is their defense. In four games this year, the Cowboys defense is allowing an average of 36.7 points per game. That is up 16 points from their per game average last season. As long as the Cowboys defense continues to lay an egg, Prescott and his pass-catchers will continue to benefit.
Darius Slayton ($4,800)
Back in Week 1, Darius Slayton would score 31.2 fantasy points and was a top-5 wide receiver. In the three games since then, Slayton has put up a total of 21.4 points. However, better Sundays are ahead for Slayton as he and the Giants will head to take on the Cowboys.
What is important to note is that even with Slayton putting up low numbers in the last three weeks, he has still seen his fair share of targets. Slayton has seen six or more targets in each of his games played and has just as many targets as players like Tyreek Hill and the previously mentioned CeeDee Lamb.
What people who have wanted to roster Slayton have been waiting for is the right opponent. Two out of three of those previous opponents are in the top-12 in fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Those three opponents combined are allowing 31.3 points per game to wide receivers. Slayton’s next opponent, the Cowboys, are allowing 53 points per game. Since I cannot trust Daniel Jones to stay turnover-free, I have a hard time recommending a Giants stack. That aside, Slayton will be able to do a lot more with his targets this weekend and will surpass his 3X expectations (14.4 points).
Other 3X Options: Marquise Brown ($6,300), DeVante Parker ($5,900), Diontae Johnson ($5,600), Zach Pascal ($4,600)
Ian Thomas ($3,400)
Remember last season when selecting a tight end was as easy as finding out who was facing the Cardinals. Four weeks into the 2020 season, the team to target now is the Falcons. While the three-touchdown performance from Robert Tonyan is fresh in everyone’s minds, the Falcons have continuously been bad against the position. So far this season, the Falcons have finished each week inside the top-6 in points allowed to tight ends. That would include the last two weeks in which they have been inside the top-2.
All of this sounds promising for Ian Thomas who will need to score 10.2 points in order to reach his 3X expectations. So far this season, Thomas has not produced all that much. Last week would be his best so far as he was caught two of five targets for a touchdown. The expectation here is that offensive coordinator Joey Brady will look to exploit the Falcons weakness and for what it is worth, I’m all for stacking some Panthers this weekend.
Evan Engram ($4,600)
Remember all of those things I said about how the Cowboys defense is terrible, all of that applies to this next selection. On the season, the Cowboys are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends. That would include the last two weeks in which the Cowboys have been in the top-5 in the most points allowed. Even if the Cowboys were the complete laughing stock that they are this season, they have had a history of being a promising matchup for tight ends. Since the 2018 season, the Cowboys have been in the top-10 in most points allowed to tight ends.
Let’s shift towards the player I am nominating, Evan Engram. For the redraft community, Engram has been a disappointment. Despite just one game with double-digit fantasy points, the Giants’ tight end is the third most targeted tight end in the NFL. In his previous six games against the Cowboys, Engram has averaged 16.8 points per game. In his previous appearance in Dallas, Engram put up 31.60 fantasy points and was the number one tight end on the week. Both of the tight end options I’m nominated this week have not done great but both have clear bounce-back potential.
Other 3X Options: Tyler Higbee ($5,600), Hayden Hurst ($4,700), Mo Alie-Cox ($4,200), Eric Ebron ($4,000)