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Gridiron 3X: Top Projected DraftKings Plays Week 10

Ben Roethlisberger

With half of the NFL season under our belts, it’s essential to take a look at your cash game ROI from the the first half of the season. If you haven’t been profitable, you’ll need to take a closer look at your cash game goals.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Plays Week 10

Gridiron 3x Daily FantasyWith half of the NFL season under our belts, it’s essential to take a look at your cash game ROI from the the first half of the season. If you haven’t been profitable, you’ll need to take a closer look at your cash game goals.

If you’re playing cash games on DraftKings, your goal for each player on your roster should be to score three times his salary.

For example, Dontrelle Inman is $3,100 on DraftKings this week. For Inman to score three times his salary, he would need to produce 9.3 points (3.100 x 3).

Finding players who will score three times their salary can be difficult, but a stable set of projections should be your starting point.

Last year, Gridiron Experts’ projections were very efficient in finding these players — we’ll call them our Gridiron 3X.

Our projections are posted every Tuesday morning by Jody Smith — you can find them here.

In the table below, you’ll see how often the average player surpassed 3X his salary last season — only players who were projected for more than 5.0 points were included to remove injured players and those with minor roles). Next to it, you’ll see how often our Gridiron 3X guys surpassed 3X their salary. The difference between the two is in the final column:

PositionAverageGridiron 3XDifference
QB44.3%53.0%+8.7%
RB29.3%48.6%+19.3%
WR34.0%41.1%+7.1%
TE35.9%42.1%+6.2%

So who fits the criteria in Week 10?

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger, $6800, Projected 4.0x: After initially being expected to miss four to six weeks after undergoing knee surgery, Roethlisberger predictably beat his recovery timetable and was under center in Week 9 against the Ravens. Roethlisberger has historically performed worse when a) coming off an injury and b) playing on the road. Both of those scenarios intersected last week and Ben threw for just 5.9 YPA and one touchdown. Luckily this week, he’ll have another week of rest and recovery while returning to Pittsburgh to host the Cowboys, who are missing two key starters in their secondary. Our projections have Roethlisberger scoring 27 DraftKings points this week, which would be well beyond the necessary threshold for 3X value.

marcus-mariotaMarcus Mariota, $5700, Projected 4.0x: In his last five games, Marcus Mariota has been a great play on DraftKings — he’s reached 3X value in all but one game while topping 30 DraftKings points on two separate occasions. Now a week after scoring four touchdowns, his price has inexplicably dropped $200 in a game against the Packers with one of the highest Vegas totals of the weekend (49.5). If you’re going cheap at the quarterback position this week, Mariota is one of the safer options.

Jay Cutler, $5300, Projected 3.7x: If you’re looking for a little more variance (and a cheaper price tag) than Mariota, drop down to Jay Cutler this week. He returned in Week 8 after missing most of the early part of the season with a thumb injury and managed to post an efficient performance against a tough Minnesota Vikings’ defense. After a week off for the bye, Cutler gets to face Tampa Bay on Sunday — they’re allowing the third-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks this season. It’ll take just 15.9 DraftKings points to hit 3X value this week, a number that all but two quarterbacks facing Tampa have hit in 2016.

Other Gridiron 3X QBs: Case Keenum, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Cody Kessler, Trevor Siemian, Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Philip Rivers, Alex Smith, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Brock Osweiler, Aaron Rodgers

Running Back

[the_ad id=”63198″]Darren Sproles, $4300, Projected 4.0x: I’m not sure how or why it’s happened, but Darren Sproles has played at least 80 percent of the RB snaps in Philadelphia in the last two weeks while taking over as the Eagles’ lead running back. He’s averaged 18 touches per game in that span, which is a crazy workload for a RB with just a $4300 salary. Matchup and Vegas total can take a back seat in this case. Regardless of those factors, Sproles is in line for a huge workload and should easily see enough volume to hit 3X his salary this week.

Melvin Gordon, $7100, Projected 3.8x: Similar to Darren Sproles, matchup and Vegas projections are becoming nearly irrelevant for Melvin Gordon. He’s had at least 27 touches in each of the last four games, including 36 last week against the Titans when he totaled 261 yards and a touchdown. Danny Woodhead and Dexter McCluster are on injured reserve, leaving just Kenneth Farrow behind Gordon to compete for snaps and touches. Gordon is just the fourth-highest priced running back this week at $7100 — he should be priced much higher.

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Paul Perkins, $3500, Projected 3.7x: Don’t look now, but there appears to be a changing of the guard in the Giants’ backfield. Last week, Perkins played his most snaps of the season (22) while leading the Giants’ RBs with 14 touches. He’s still priced as a backup at $3500, but he will be in a near-even timeshare at worst in Week 10 against the Bengals. He faces an easier matchup this week (Cincinnati allows 4.2 more DraftKings points per game than Perkins’ Week 9 opponent Philadelphia) and has the all-around ability to hit 3X value, even if it’s in a limited role.

Other Gridiron 3X RBs: Jay Ajayi, Jeremy Langford, Chris Ivory, DeMarco Murray, Isaiah Crowell, David Johnson, Peyton Barber, Le’Veon Bell, Kapri Bibbs

Wide Receiver

Quinton Patton, $3000, Projected 3.9x: Quinton Patton notched his first career 100-yard receiving game against the Saints in Week 9, but his DraftKings salary hasn’t moved a dime and he’s still minimum price for Sunday. He’s averaging 6.7 targets per game with Colin Kaepernick under center, which is an extremely high target number for someone with a $3000 salary. The 49ers are nearly two touchdown underdogs against Arizona this week, which means they should be passing often in the second half. There’s tons of upside for Patton in Week 10.

Nelson Agholor, $3100, Projected 3.8x: Nelson Agholor hasn’t been as involved in his team’s offense as Patton above, but he’s still seeing five targets per game over the last four weeks. He faces a much more profitable matchup than Patton in Week 10, as the Atlanta Falcons have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers this season. Those wideouts are averaging 15-182-1.6 per game this year, so if Agholor just maintains his WR reception share (25 percent), yardage share (23 percent), and touchdown share (17 percent), he’ll easily be in line to hit 3X value this weekend.

J.J. Nelson, $4200, Projected 3.5x: Before the Cardinals’ Week 9 bye, J.J. Nelson hauled in eight passes and two touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers and was named a starter moving forward by head coach Bruce Arians. John Brown has struggled with injuries for most of the year, Jaron Brown is on injured reserve, and Michael Floyd has massively underperformed expectations, allowing Nelson to leap into a meaningful role in this offense. As long as he runs as the number two or three wideout in this Cardinals’ offense, he’s severely underpriced at $4200.

Other Gridiron 3X WRs: Tajae Sharpe, Eli Rogers, Sammie Coates, Cordarrelle Patterson, John Brown, Tavon Austin, DeVante Parker, Tyrell Williams, Tyreek Hill, Dorial Green-Beckham, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Markus Wheaton, Jordan Matthews, Alshon Jeffery, Allen Hurns, Jermaine Kearse

Tight End

Zach Miller, $3600, Projected 3.9x: As mentioned in Jay Cutler’s section above, the Chicago Bears’ passing game has a great matchup against Tampa Bay in Week 10. Allowing 294 yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, the Bucs’ defense is one of the best targets for DFS purposes over the second half of the season. Miller was heavily involved in Cutler’s return two weeks ago, catching seven passes for 88 yards. For just $3600, it will take only 10.8 DraftKings points to hit 3X value for Miller, an easily attainable number in this matchup.

Lance Kendricks, $3000, Projected 3.8x: Lance Kendricks’ price really doesn’t reflect the reality of his involvement in the Rams’ offense. He’s averaged 9.7 targets per game over his last three contests, hauling in 19 total receptions and eclipsing 12.5 DraftKings points in each game. He’s become a trusted target for Case Keenum and has even seen three red zone targets during this span. He’s basically free on DraftKings with a high floor and high ceiling — there’s not much else you can ask for from your tight end.

Antonio Gates, $3900, Projected: 3.8x: Antonio Gates will appear in this column every single week until DraftKings increases his salary to reflect his role in the Chargers’ offense. He’s had nine red zone targets (!!) in the last three games and is averaging nearly 10 targets per contest during that time frame. With injuries to Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, Travis Benjamin, Dexter McCluster, and Hunter Henry, Philip Rivers doesn’t have many options in the passing game. He’ll continue to look to Gates and you should continue to put him in your DraftKings lineup at this cheap price tag.

Other Gridiron 3X TEs: Richard Rodgers, Coby Fleener, Martellus Bennett, Cameron Brate, Zach Ertz, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Gary Barnidge, Kyle Rudolph, Will Tye, Vance McDonald, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Jesse James

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