Free NFL Teaser Picks
So, last week was fun. Unless you’re in a survivor pool or have a fantasy football team filled with players from good NFL teams. And if you’re a bettor who loves to take favorites, your wallet is a whole lot lighter than it was this time last week.
Underdogs dominated Week 9, going 4-10 against the spread – their best week since Week 1. Three massive favorites fell, including two double-digit favorites, just a week after the first seven-point underdog won outright. The 10.5-point favorite Cowboys were stunned by the Broncos, the two-touchdown favorite Bills were shut down by the Jaguars, and the 7.5-point favorite Rams were dominated by the Derrick Henry-less Titans.
Here’s to another crazy week in the NFL – let’s see if we can make some money in the process. Don’t forget to follow all my weekly picks right here.
Dallas Cowboys -9.5 (-110)
Cowboys 6-2 vs. Falcons 4-4
The Cowboys blew their half of our teaser last week, so I’m looking for a bounce-back in Week 10. I think we’re in a perfect spot to get one against a heavily-overrated Falcons team. I don’t normally like laying more than a touchdown – in fact, this is the first time I’ve done it in a best bet article all season. But I really like this spot for Dallas. Here’s why.
The Cowboys defense has been good this year, sure, but this game has all the makings of a shootout. And if this is a shootout, the Cowboys are going to score as many times as they possibly can to get the sour taste from last week out of their mouths. Atlanta simply cannot keep up with that, especially without Calvin Ridley.
Even after Sunday's dreadful performance, the #Cowboys offense still ranks:
4th in EPA per play
1st in yards per play
5th in successful play %
4th in scoring drive %
6th in rushing yards before contact
4th in rushing yards after contact
4th in explosive pass %
— John Owning (@JohnOwning) November 8, 2021
There’s been a lot of love for Atlanta’s A.J. Terrell – and rightfully so. He’s given up the fewest yards of any corner in the league thus far, and he’s graded out at the top of PFF’s list. But who is he going to cover in this diverse Cowboys offense? CeeDee Lamb? Sure, but what are they going to do with Amari Cooper, and vice versa? And how are they going to stop the second-best rushing attack in the league with the 24th ranked rushing defense? The simple answer is: they’re not. The Falcons simply aren’t equipped to lock down the Cowboys, especially a motivated Cowboys offense that got embarrassed last week by a middle-of-the-pack Minnesota defense.
Atlanta’s offense is also obviously missing Calvin Ridley, which eliminates their most dynamic weapon. Remember, Dan Quinn is Dallas’ defensive coordinator; the same Dan Quinn who coached this very same Falcons group just last year. He’s familiar with most of the offense, he’ll be able to game plan against them, and he’s going to make Matt Ryan beat his defense with one weapon – either Kyle Pitts or Cordarrelle Patterson. You can’t keep up with the Cowboys with just one offensive option.
Dallas overall is the fifth-best team in the NFL per DVOA; Atlanta is 31st. That’s second-to-last, despite the Falcons 4-4 record, and makes them 32.7% worse than an average team per Football Outsiders. Keep in mind who Atlanta’s four wins have come against: the Giants on a walk-off field goal, the Dolphins on another walk-off field goal, the Jets in London, and the Saints with their third-string quarterback. This is an extremely overrated team and one I think gets run over in Dallas on Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-110)
Eagles 3-6 vs. Broncos 5-4
At best, this is a coin flip game against the Denver Broncos, so I’ll gladly take the Eagles getting a field goal in a game I view as a toss-up. The Broncos are overrated based on two factors. The first is their flukey 5-4 record. Denver ran off three straight wins against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets to start the year, then dropped four in a row looking feeble in the process, and have now won back-to-back weeks against a terrible Washington team and a sleepwalking Cowboys team.
The second reason, as I basically just touched on, is their win last week in Dallas. They trounced the Cowboys and were up 30-0 at one point over a team that many including myself view as a Super Bowl contender. They’re severely overvalued based on one game that yes, they played well in, but also is a complete outlier based on their track record this season.
The Eagles on the other hand have actually been playing much better over the last few weeks. They beat Carolina before the bottom fell out of that team, they played the Buccaneers tough and only lost by six, and the one stinker of the bunch was an 11-point loss in Vegas – a game Philadelphia had plenty of chances in but just couldn’t hold onto the football. Since that loss, the Eagles destroyed the hapless Lions by 38 and then played the Chargers down to the wire last week, losing 27-24. They were let down by their defense, not their offense, and Denver just doesn’t have the offense to exploit the Eagles’ weakness.
Jalen Hurts is 7th in the NFL with 2,369 total yards
He is the only player in the NFL with 2250+ total yards and 5 or fewer giveaways
He ranks 6th among NFL QBs in redzone passer rating (112.5)
What do you think his ceiling is? pic.twitter.com/fqWepl0dmx
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) November 11, 2021
The Broncos are also in a tough spot. They’re coming off a huge win in Dallas, so they’re flying high, and next week is their bye week. Do we really think their focus is at an all-time high? I don’t. I think they’re still celebrating last week’s win, and the players who aren’t are looking forward to the week off. Plus, the Broncos just traded the face of the franchise in Von Miller despite being .500 at the time. What sort of message does that send to the team? To me, it says that the front office believes this team doesn’t have the roster to compete.
Don’t play the Eagles at anything below +3; we need to make sure the key number of three is kept in play. Sprinkle a bit on the moneyline here if you desire, but Philly +3 is the official play.
Two-Team Teaser Of The Week:
Vikings +8.5 / Raiders +8.5 (-120)
Two weeks ago we played two favorites. Last week we played a favorite and an underdog. And this week we’re going full-180 and taking two underdogs and teasing them up.
Let’s start with Minnesota. They’re every teaser bettor’s dream because all they do is play in close games. Every game except for one – a 30-17 win over Seattle – has been decided by one score or less. We’re getting more than one score against a Chargers team who I think is a bit overrated and is no longer the trendy dark horse Super Bowl contender. And a Chargers team who also loves to play in close games. Thirteen of their 16 games last year were of the one-score variety, and six of eight this year have been decided by a score or less. These are two Jekyll and Hyde teams who are pretty similar – high-potential offense with a defense that varies week to week. This has all the makings of a tight one.
As for the Raiders, I actually don’t know why they’re underdogs here. Sorry to everyone who is still stuck in the past, but they’re better than the Chiefs, and the Chiefs are simply not a good team. I’m sure any sharp bettor will tell you the Chiefs are favored because their offense can pop at any time. They’d be right, but it’s been over two months and it still hasn’t clicked. Plus, their defense is horrendous. And they’ll tell you that the Raiders have been decimated by off-the-field issues. I won’t argue that, but sooner or later professional football players are going to wake up and realize they’re fighting for a playoff spot. I think Las Vegas plays like it in a huge, absolutely huge divisional showdown in prime time. I also think this is a perfect week for their offense to bounce back and figure things out in the post-Ruggs era against a really bad Chiefs defense. Primetime games are always close – this will be no different.
Mike is an avid sports bettor and fantasy football player, and has been writing since 2013. He previously worked for NBC Sports Philadelphia and Alliance Football Focus, and currently contributes to BettingPros as a featured writer. Mike is a resident of New Jersey, a graduate of Rider University, and currently works as a research analyst. When he isn’t searching for his next wager or watching the New Jersey Devils, Mike enjoys spending time with his wife, his dog and his two cats.