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Free NFL Teaser Picks and Bets for Week 11

Free NFL Bets and Teaser Picks

There were a lot of questions around the NFL coming into Week 10, and I think we finally got answers. At least some answers.

The Cowboys are still good, and their 40-point destruction of the Falcons proved that Dak Prescott just needed to shake off a little rust. The Bills proved that all a slumping team needs to break out of a funk is a date with the Jets. New England heard all the “are the Patriots back?” questions – and I think we heard them loud and clear. Kansas City has ripped off three wins in a row; they’re once again a very strong team. And finally yes, the Packers in fact do have a defense all of a sudden.

On the flip side – what’s going on with the Ravens? And while we’re at it, how about the Rams, Buccaneers, Chargers, and Browns? For my money, I think the Rams and Buccaneers will be just fine. I think we crowned the Chargers a bit early – they’re still a year or two away from being true contenders. Baltimore is a good team, but a Super Bowl seems unlikely. And Cleveland, well, it was a fun few seasons being good again. The Browns are a team that’s coming apart at the seams, and they’ve got a $40 million dollar question at the most important position looming over their upcoming offseason.

As for our best bets, we cashed in two of the three last week, the only miss being the teaser. Quietly, we’ve put together a little bit of a hot streak here, going 2-1 in two of the last three weeks after a little mid-season lull. Here are my two favorite bets and my best teaser for Week 11 as we look to build on our recent success. As always, make sure to check out all my Week 11 picks for free right here.

Packers -2 (-107)

Packers 8-2 vs. Vikings 4-5

This line is available on PointsBet. You can also find Green Bay -2 at -110 on DraftKings, but everywhere else lists the Packers at -2.5. I would still play them at -2.5, but obviously, you’re going to want to find the best line possible.

I know this is a square play, a public play, however you want to label it. But like I always say, the public wins sometimes too, and every so often I feel like the books get too sharp. This is one of those instances. I understand why the Packers are less than a field goal favorite. But I can debunk each and every reason. Firstly and most obviously, they’re on the road. But let’s dive into that a bit deeper. Home field advantage is worth about two points in the NFL, two-and-a-half at select venues like Kansas City and Buffalo where the fans are extra-passionate. So on a neutral field, the books are saying the Packers are only four points better than the Vikings. Really? I disagree. And on top of it, Aaron Rodgers is 7-6 in Minnesota lifetime, so it’s not like it’s a house of horrors for him. We’ve also got a heavily motivated Aaron Rodgers after everything that went on with his COVID situation.

Secondly, the Vikings are playing for their season. They’re 4-5, and a loss all but ends their season; they need to win. But do the Packers not need to win? Of course, they do, and they’re just as motivated. The top of the NFC playoff picture is loaded. So loaded, in fact, that the Los Angeles Rams are currently the five-seed. Home field advantage is absolutely crucial, especially when your home field is as big of an advantage as Lambeau Field. Rodgers and the Packers want to, and quite honestly need to beat every single team they’re supposed to beat the rest of the way.

And thirdly, Aaron Jones is out. That’s definitely a big loss, but it’s not like the Packers don’t have a capable backup. In fact, they’ve got a great one in AJ Dillon who they’ve already given 97 carries to this season. Clearly, they have faith in him, and he’s run for a respectable 4.3 yards per carry; that’s just one-tenth of a yard lower than Aaron Jones, and Dillon has only seen 26 fewer carries than Jones. This backfield was more of a split than you’d think, so there’s going to be no ramp-up period for Dillon. The Vikings also struggle to stop the run. Aaron Rodgers can throw on anyone, but when the Packers get the ground game going, there’s no stopping their offense. Minnesota is 28th in the league in stopping the run, and they’ve been particularly inefficient against power backs like Dillon. Just take a look at some of the teams that have gashed them on the ground: Cleveland, Dallas, and Baltimore to name a few. Three teams that can line up and run it right at you.

Finally, the Packers’ defense isn’t just showing a pulse lately, they’re actually good since they added pass rushers like Whitney Mercilus. Since allowing an ugly 27.7 points per game through the first three weeks and 24.4 through the first five, the Green Bay defense has given up just 11.6 points per game in the last five weeks including a shutout last week and a 13-point showing in Kansas City. Minnesota’s offense has been playing better, but I think the Packers roll in this one.

Texans +10.5 (-110)

Texans 1-8 vs. Titans 8-2

I can’t believe I’m betting on the Houston Texans, but this is a really typical letdown spot for the Titans. Tennessee has ripped off six wins in a row, and eight of their last nine including five straight against legitimate playoff teams. But they haven’t really been blowing any of these teams out, even when Derrick Henry and Julio Jones were playing. They beat the Saints by two last week and needed a gift of a roughing the passer call to do it. The Colts took them to overtime in Week 8. And they needed Josh Allen to slip and fall on fourth down to get past Buffalo. All legitimate wins for a good team, but all really tight games.

So, who’s riding higher than the Titans right now? Nobody. And with the AFC South crown all but in the bag and a really light schedule ahead, plus their bye week, the Titans are about to exhale. I’m not saying the Texans are going to catch them by surprise, but I don’t think we’re going to see a dominant effort from the Titans. We may get a tight game throughout, or we may get a backdoor cover from the Texans when the Titans take their foot off the gas late. Either way, we cash.

I mentioned the Titans’ upcoming bye. It’s in two weeks, but first, they’ll travel to New England in what all of a sudden has become an enormous game. Remember, the Titans were the last team to beat Tom Brady as a Patriot. Mike Vrabel spent his career in New England. This is a potential playoff matchup. Don’t be surprised if the Titans are overlooking a weak Houston team as they peek ahead to a tough matchup with the Pats.

Houston also has Tyrod Taylor back, while Tennessee will be missing Derrick Henry and Julio Jones again. That’s a lot of talent to lose from that Titans offense, I don’t care who their opponent is. As for Taylor, I know his performance against Miami was less than ideal, but it was his first action in two months. Look at how poorly Dak Prescott played after just one week off. And Russell Wilson after a month off. Taylor missed parts of seven games – rust was expected. Now, coming off a bye, I expect a much more polished performance. What do the Texans have to lose? Taylor is playing for another contract somewhere next year, even if it isn’t in Houston. And plenty of young Texans are fighting for jobs. There’s plenty of motivation to feed off of, especially against a divisional opponent.

This one is ugly, and we need all the points we can get. I only recommend betting this one with the half-point hook; don’t bet it at +10.

Two-Team Teaser Of The Week:

Dallas Cowboys +8.5 / Buffalo Bills -1 (-120)

This is a really fun teaser because we’re finally betting on two really good teams, and it’s always nice to play alternate lines on teams we can trust to perform well most of the time.

Starting with Dallas, they’re in Kansas City in a potentially awesome game. And the Chiefs tax is back; in simpler terms, they’re insanely overvalued because the books know the public is going to just blindly bet on them because they’re all of a sudden good again. They looked incredible against the Raiders, and they’ve reeled off three straight wins, but look closer. They snuck by the Giants because Joe Judge has no clue how to manage his timeouts. They beat Jordan Love by six. And they destroyed a Raiders team who spent the last month losing their coach, their number one cornerback, and their number one receiver. Let’s not forget how good the Cowboys are, and let’s also acknowledge that their loss to Denver was an aberration. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys win this game, but they’re certainly not losing by more than a touchdown with that offense against this Chiefs defense.

And Buffalo, they looked pretty much back to normal last week. Sure it was against the Jets, but sometimes good teams need to beat the daylights out of bad teams to get their swagger back, and I think that’s exactly what happened. The Colts are playing much better, but Carson Wentz in potentially rough weather is a recipe for disaster. All we need the Bills to do here is win at home, and with the added motivation of the Patriots right on their tail in the AFC East race, I see no way they falter again. Take a look at who the Colts have beaten: Dolphins, Texans, 49ers, Jets, Jaguars. Teams with bad quarterbacks. They’ve lost to Seahawks, Rams, Titans (x2), Ravens. Teams with good quarterbacks. Josh Allen is good, and I expect the Bills to roll.

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