NFL Picks

Free NFL Bets Week 7

Derek Carr

Free NFL Bets Week 7

The new expanded schedule which added a 17th game and 18th week to each team’s plate has created a bit of an issue for bettors and fantasy players: bye weeks. Week 7 features six teams on a bye week, which means there are three fewer games to bet, six fewer teams to use in your survivor pools, and countless players who are now forced to ride the bench in a crucial fantasy week.

There’s another wrench thrown into the betting equation: lopsided spreads. There are three double-digit favorites and three more who are favored by at least a touchdown, which makes the pickings slim when trying to find the best bets. Trust me on this one, much like my assignment help reviews, you can’t just dive into this weekend and expect easy results. So, let’s pivot to totals. Here’s what’s on tap.

Eagles / Raiders Over 48.5 (-110)

Eagles 2-4 vs. Raiders 4-2

There are some 49’s out there, but it’s such a key number that I would really prefer not to take this line at anything over 48.5. If you must, just keep in mind you may be flirting with a push while the rest of us are in prime position to cash a winning ticket.

I expected this total to be at least 50, so I think we’re getting at least a point and a half of value here. Philadelphia’s offense is nothing to write home about, but Jalen Hurts can make things happen with his legs, and the Raiders defense – while really not all that bad in terms of yards per play and yards allowed per game – gives up a ton of points thanks to chunk plays. They’re right in the middle of the pack, 16th in scoring defense allowing 24.0 points per game, but take a look at the offenses they’ve played: Baltimore (7th), Pittsburgh (25th), Miami (29th), LA Chargers (11th), Chicago (30th), and Denver (22nd). The only two good offenses of the bunch – the Ravens and Chargers – put up a combined 61 points on the Las Vegas defense.

The Raiders defense also does two things well – rush the passer and cover with their corners. Neither of those things are going to matter against the Eagles. Maxx Crosby can get after Jalen Hurts, but Hurts has the ability to escape pressure like few others can. And the Eagles really don’t have receivers that require locking down. DeVonta Smith is their de facto number one, but they use a combination of pass-catchers like Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert – none of whom spend a lot of time lining up outside. In short – the Eagles’ offensive strengths attack weaknesses of the Raiders defense, they don’t play into their strong points.

On the Raiders side of things, they can obviously score. They’re 13th in the NFL in scoring, and you’ve already seen the teams they played this year. Every single one of them has an above-average defense except perhaps Miami. Again, as was the case with the Eagles offense, the Raiders offense goes against what the Philadelphia defense does well. The Eagles are strong upfront, but the Raiders have no problem throwing the ball 40-plus times. And I think we’re getting a break on this total because of the play-caller. Greg Olsen will now call plays since Jon Gruden was dismissed, and sure, it’s just his second week on task, but he’s called offensive plays dating all the way back to 2004. He’ll be fine as long as he puts the ball in Derek Carr’s hands.

Weather won’t be a concern, there will be plenty of fans from both teams in attendance, and neither defense is going to be able to handle the potential tempo this game could feature.

Colts /49ers 1H Under 22.5 (-110)

Colts 2-4 vs. 49ers 2-3

Again, I’m going to go against the grain. Primetime usually means overs, and this game can go over if it so chooses, but I think it’ll start slow. Playing full game overs this year has been a death trap because teams make adjustments at halftime, key players on defense go down with injuries, and with the pace of today’s game – defenses simply get tired. Points are there to be had in the second half. But first halves have been a feeling out process.

Starting with the Colts, Frank Reich likes to keep games within reach as long as he can. He’s not a quick-strike, big-play type of coach, and Indianapolis is 11th in the NFL in time of possession. On the other side, my feelings about Kyle Shanahan are turning. He’s not a good head coach. He’s a great offensive coordinator, but as a head coach, he leaves so much to be desired. A team with all the offensive weapons the 49ers have should not be just 17th in points per game.

The first half for both of these teams has also been a struggle on offense. San Francisco averages just 10.8 points per first half, and Indianapolis averages 8.4. On defense, the Colts allow just 9.0 points in the first half, and the 49ers allow 9.4. No matter how this one shakes out, none of these averages add up to 23 points and add in the fact that no one – not even the 49ers – know who’s starting under center on Sunday night, and we should be in for a lethargic start. For what it’s worth, it’s looking like Jimmy Garappolo might get the nod, which is even better for us.

No George Kittle is obviously huge, and the Colts new-found reliance on the run game should keep the clock ticking. Plus, it’s going to be raining all day and night in the Bay Area. Sloppy conditions should help our under. Since points are so precious in the first half, I’d recommend trying to get 22.5, but staying at 21.5 or above is key since 21 is such a key number.

Two-Team Teaser of the Week:  Packers -1.5 / Patriots -1 (-120)

For the first time in a while, I’m going with the double-favorite teaser. Both handicaps are quite simple.

Starting with Green Bay – I’m not fading Aaron Rodgers when he’s in this kind of a zone. Essentially all the Packers have to do is win the game, and they’re facing a Washington team who are just flat-out terrible. Both defenses are bad, so if this game is going to be a score-for-score shootout, I’m going with Rodgers over Taylor Heinicke. Especially in Green Bay.

On the Patriots side, I’m taking them to essentially beat the Jets – something Bill Belichick has made light work of in his coaching career. New England has been playing much better, and despite losing to both Tampa Bay and Dallas, the Patriots have hung in both games and played well. It won’t take a herculean effort to beat the lowly Jets, and Belichick’s history against rookie quarterbacks has been well documented. He just doesn’t lose to them. He won’t on Sunday either.

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