Free NFL Bets Week 7
Another red-hot week is in the books. Our Week 6 picks went a perfect 2-0, the fourth time in six weeks we’ve had an undefeated record. Free bets are now 9-3 (75.0%) on the year, and player prop bets released on my Twitter account are 12-9 (57.1%).
Also, don’t forget to check out Gridiron Experts Picks page, where our entire staff posts their picks straight-up and against the spread for every game, every week. Last week was one of our best weeks, and we were rewarded atop the against the spread leaderboard:
— TS Sports (@tallysight) October 20, 2020
And on the against the spread and straight-up combined leaderboard as well:
— TS Sports (@tallysight) October 20, 2020
Here’s a look at this week’s edition of betting trends before we jump into Week 7’s free bets.
- Overs were 29-19 (60.4%) through the first three weeks of the season. In Weeks 4-6, overs are just 19-24 (44.2%).
- In games where totals closed at 50 points or higher, overs are just 16-16 (50.0%). In games where totals closed below 50 points, overs are 20-12 (62.5%). The market is inflating high totals, and the public is falling into the trap.
- Favorites of seven-or-more points are 16-13 (55.2%) against the spread, but favorites of less than seven points are just 26-35 (42.6%) against the spread. Of the 35 teams who covered as an underdog of seven-or-less, 26 won straight up.
Let’s take a look at our Week 7 free bets, as we try to go undefeated for a third straight week:
Chargers (-7) vs. Jaguars
Justin Herbert is absolutely for real, and the Jaguars are who we thought they were before the season: a bad football team.
Herbert is completing 68.8% of his passes, and he’s third in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9), behind only Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. He may still be winless, but those are impressive numbers considering he’s gone up against the Chiefs, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Saints. He’s taking deep shots, he’s hitting them, and he’s got a real opportunity to hit on a few more against a dreadful and injured Jaguars defense.
Jacksonville has cooled off since their impressive start when they beat the Colts and nearly beat the Titans. Their offense has come back down to earth, but it’s the defense that’s been the source behind their demise. They’re 29th in total defense, they’re allowing 30.2 points per game, and they’re getting absolutely no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. In fact, they’re second-to-last in the league in sack rate. They could also be without their two best defenders in Myles Jack and Josh Allen.
You may be scared to lay a touchdown with a one-win Chargers team, but don’t be. The Jaguars have lost each of their last four games by more than seven points, and three of those losses gave their opponent their first win of the season. Half of the available books have the Chargers at -7 (namely PointsBet and Bet365), half have -7.5. While I still like Los Angeles -7.5, I like it much more without the half-point-hook. If you see -7, jump on it before it disappears.
Steelers (+7.5)/Panthers (+13.5) Six-Point Teaser
Back-to-back weeks with a teaser as one of our free bets. Let’s start with Pittsburgh.
I don’t understand this line movement at all. The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites and almost instantly flipped to 1.5-point underdogs. The Titans are a good team, but aside from Buffalo, they haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record. They’ve beaten Denver, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Houston by a combined 12 points, six of them coming in an overtime win last week. Their defense is 26th in the NFL, and they’ve struggled to give their offense any sort of breathing room all year. This will also be the Titans’ third game in under two weeks.
Without Tennessee being able to create much distance on the scoreboard, I trust a fantastic Steelers team with a top-three defense to be able to keep this game within one score. Also, the Steelers offense has kicked it into another gear since they unleashed Chase Claypool, and the Titans defense just isn’t equipped to hold them in check for long. I really like that I’m getting the extra half-point on top of the seven-point spread as well.
As far as the second half of this teaser goes: Carolina has been quite possibly the most surprising team in the league this year. Their new coaching staff, lead by head coach Matt Rhule, has been outstanding. The Panthers could realistically be 6-0 against the spread; they’re never out of a game, they’re competitive, and they play extremely hard. Plus, they’ve got Teddy Bridgewater, who is an absolute spread-covering machine. Check this out:
Teddy Bridgewater is the cover king during his career
30-10-0 ATS (75%) overall
13-3-0 ATS (81%) following a SU loss
18-4-0 ATS (82%) as an underdog
16-3-0 ATS (84%) on the road
14-2-0 ATS (88%) as a road underdog
(data via @CBSSportsHQ )
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) October 22, 2020
And now I’m getting an extra six points on top of the usual spread? Yes, please.
I don’t expect the Panthers to walk into New Orleans and upset the Saints, but they don’t have to. Plus, the Saints aren’t themselves right now. For starters, the Superdome just isn’t the same without fans. One of the best home-field advantages in the NFL has basically been eliminated. And the Michael Thomas fight saga may be over, but he popped up on the injury report on Wednesday with a hamstring issue, in addition to the ankle injury that’s kept him out for the last month. Mid-week injuries are never promising, so even if he suits up, he’ll be playing at less than 100%.
I like Bridgewater to keep yet another game within striking distance against a Saints defense that’s struggled so far this year.