Free NFL Bets: Super Bowl LVI Prop Bets

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Free NFL Bets: Super Bowl LVI Prop Bets

The Super Bowl has more prop bets than any other sporting event of the year. If you dive deep enough, you’ll find Super Bowl player props, team props, game props, even kicking and punting props (spoiler alert). Some are common, like the ones we see every week of the NFL season. For example – Cam Akers over/under 63.5 rushing yards. Or Joe Burrow over/under 1.5 touchdown passes. But some are more niche, and are only offered for the Super Bowl.

My word of advice – be careful. The sportsbooks aren’t releasing all these props so everyone can have fun. They’re releasing these props so they can make money. Don’t bet on lines just to have a taste of the action, or just because it feels like a longshot that could hit if everything breaks right. Do your research and play the props that you feel confident in. Just because there are thousands of crazy props doesn’t mean you have to bet them all. With that being said, here are my three favorites for Super Bowl LVI.

Cooper Kupp Over 102.5 yards (-115)

Let’s start off with a prop everyone is familiar with, and one I guarantee everyone has played at least once this year – Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards to the over. At first glance, this seems like a square play – the best player on the field to go over his total. Really? The books saw me coming, right? Wrong – I actually think while the casual bettors who only come around for the Super Bowl are looking for the biggest longshot to hit and make them rich overnight, they’re missing the best prop that’s staring them right in the face.

Most people get scared away when they see the highest total on the board in any market, but we’re not going to fall into that bucket. Kupp is a stud. For my money, he’s the MVP and he’s already the Offensive Player of the Year. This is the Super Bowl. Sean McVay isn’t going to get gimmicky and try to maneuver his way around the Bengals defense. He’s going to trust the horse that got him here, and that horse is his 2,000 yard receiver.

Cooper Kupp is having a year for the ages pic.twitter.com/8OPMrIwjCb

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) February 1, 2022

Throughout these playoffs when the Rams have needed a big play, who’ve they gone to? Cooper Kupp. Well, in the Super Bowl, every play is a big play, and they’re going to lean heavily on their star wideout. I know Odell Beckham Jr. has taken on a lot of the spotlight with his resurgence, but Kupp is still averaging 128.7 yards per game in the postseason. His connection with Matthew Stafford is undeniable; let’s take a look at his game log.

In addition to averaging 128.7 yards per game in the postseason, Kupp averaged 114.5 per game in the regular year – both far clear of this over. He averaged 11.2 targets per game in the regular season and has still averaged 10.7 per game in the postseason despite all the extra attention from better defenses. He’s going to get his looks, and with his 78.1% catch rate, he should be safe for 8-9 grabs in this one; and at 15.4 yards per catch, his expected output is somewhere between 124 and 139 yards.

Final point on Kupp: -115 gives him a 53.5% implied odds to cash this over. Kupp has gone over this total in two of three postseason games – excluding the rout of Arizona – and in 13 of 20 games overall this season. That’s 65.0%, giving us an 11.5% edge on the market. Play Kupp up to 103.5.

Over 6.5 Total Punts (-110)

This is a much simpler handicap than the previous one, so I’ll get right to it. I don’t expect a lot of points early on in this one – there will be nerves. Zac Taylor is a young coach, Joe Burrow is a young quarterback, and Matthew Stafford has waited over a decade for this. There will be butterflies and some stalled drives early, leading to punts.

These defenses are also very good. Cincinnati forced the Chiefs to punt four times in Arrowhead last week, and the Rams defense forced teh 49ers to punt five times. That’s nine combined and two more than we need in the Super Bowl. The Rams defense is also going to have their way on a few series with their ferocious pass rush against the Bengals’ mediocre-at-best offensive line. More punts.

And finally, these are two of the more conservative play-callers in the NFL. During the regular season, the Rams converted just 0.5 fourth downs per game (31st in the NFL), while the Bengals converted just 0.7 (22nd). These two coaches just do not push the envelope like say, Brandon Staley, and with the bright lights of the big stage, expect them to continue those ways as they’ll be tentative to ensure one mistake does not cost their team the Super Bowl. Don’t play a number any higher than 6.5, but I’m comfortable with this line all the way down to -125.

Second Half Highest Scoring Half (-130)

There are a few reasons why I like this bet. First and foremost, I take it every year for the same key pillars. The obvious one – if on the off chance there is overtime, it counts for the second half. Bonus points, potentially. And two, which I sort of touched on in the above handicap – teams come out nervous and with butterflies in the Super Bowl. There aren’t a lot of points early, historically. Just look at the first quarter line – the total is just 7.5 for a contest where the full game total sits at 48.5. The books expect just 15% of the points to be scored in the first 25% of the game.

The second half has also been the highest-scoring half in four of the last five Super Bowls – including the 13-3 snoozefest between the Rams and Patriots. Last year was the only year this bet didn’t cash in the last five – and that was thanks to the score being lopsided as the fourth quarter began.

And finally, look at the trends in these playoffs. All hell breaks loose in the fourth quarter; defenses disappear. The second half has been the highest-scoring half in nine of the 12 postseason games this year, and I expect to make it 10 of 13 here. Play this line all the way down to -150.