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Free NFL Bets and Teaser Picks for Week 16

jonathan taylor

Free NFL Bets and Teaser Picks for Week 16

If there’s one positive to come out of the NFL’s COVID situation, it’s the fact that we get football five nights a week now. And sure, the quality of football over the past week or two has been pretty poor, but in just a few months once the Super Bowl has come and gone, we’ll all be begging for NFL football of any kind. So let’s enjoy it while it’s here.

We were so close to another perfect 3-0 week on best bets in Week 15, but Jonathan Taylor’s 67-yard touchdown run with two minutes to go ruined the Patriots +8.5 leg of our teaser. Other than that – unblemished! The Packers soared over their team total, and the Eagles covered without a problem against Washington’s practice squad on Tuesday.

Best bets are on a 7-2 run, with six winning weekends out of the last eight. Just two more wins this regular season will secure us guaranteed profit before we head into the playoffs, so let’s see if we can get both in Week 16.

If you’re thinking about placing a few wagers on games this weekend, always use websites that are legal online betting in New Jersey or whatever state you’re in. And be sure to check out all my picks for every NFL game right here.

Also, I added this disclaimer last week, and I’ll add it again each week until the COVID situation clears up, just in case anyone is new to the fun: due to COVID, a lot of both mine and your favorite bets could be rendered useless in just a matter of minutes. Make sure you’re betting within your means just in case something goes sour, and if possible, try to find a book with a reasonable cash-out option – just in case.

Miami Dolphins +3 (-105)

Dolphins 7-7 vs. Saints 7-7

These odds are available on DraftKings. Miami is +3 everywhere, but many other books have -110, even up to -120 odds. DraftKings is holding firm at -105, for now, so they’re the book of choice.

Are we really putting a ton of stock into the Saints 9-0 win over the Buccaneers? Apparently, the market is, but we shouldn’t be. Sorry to be so blunt, but the Saints are not a good football team right now. They have absolutely no receivers, they’re down to Taysom Hill at quarterback; their offense is essentially “give the ball to Alvin Kamara and hope he makes something happen.” Honestly, it’s not the worst plan in the world, Kamara is really good, but Miami’s defense is playing far too well to let a shell of an offense beat them. Even if it is on the road in a really hostile environment in primetime.

https://twitter.com/DavidFurones_/status/1473366219831054337?s=20

Back to that 9-0 Saints win. They shut out the Buccaneers, sure, but the Buccaneers didn’t have their top three receivers or their starting running back. Yeah, they have Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, but losing your four top weapons during a game is going to cripple any team. The Saints defense played well, but let’s not give them too much credit for shutting down Ronald Jones and Tyler Johnson. Since Jameis Winston tore his ACL, the Saints are 3-5. Two of those wins came against Tampa Bay, who is surprisingly 0-4 against the Saints in the regular season with Tom Brady at the helm, and the other was against the Jets.

New Orleans is 21st in offensive DVOA, 5.6% worse than an average offense. They’re about to go up against the 12th ranked defense per DVOA, and the second-best over the last seven weeks. In fact, few teams in the NFL are playing as well as the Dolphins right now – they’ve won six in a row after losing seven straight – the first team to accomplish that feat since the 1994 Giants. Miami’s offense is a nightmare for a defense like the Saints. New Orleans is 4th in defensive DVOA, but they like to play a physical brand of football. And while they don’t always send a ton of extra rushers – they’re 16th in blitz rate – they like to generate pressure from their front four. Problem is – Miami’s offense will dink and dunk you to death, right down the field. The Saints pass rushers aren’t going to have time to get to Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are 30th in yards per play, and it’s working.

I wouldn’t play the Dolphins at anything below a field goal here, and I wouldn’t take them at odds any lower than -110.

Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (-110)

Colts 8-6 vs. Cardinals 10-4

Every once in a while, I throw a square, public play into this article. But, Huey Lewis said it’s hip to be square, so let’s ride with the Colts! In all seriousness, I understand the public is going to be all over Indianapolis here, but sometimes the public wins too. Indy is red-hot, Arizona is ice-cold and just lost to the Lions somehow. This is Sharp Betting 101 – take the struggling team in a clear bounce-back spot and fade the hot team in a clear letdown spot. I just don’t see it in this one, so I’m going against the manual; the Colts offense is good at everything the Cardinals defense is bad at. And that’s the crux of this bet.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Fantasy/status/1473662110043234308?s=20

In case you haven’t heard, the Colts can run the football really effectively with Jonathan Taylor. He’s on his way to a rushing title, and some think he’s on his way to an MVP award as well. Indianapolis averages the second-most yards per game (157.0), and is averaging 190.3 per game over their last three contests. They’re also number one in rush DVOA and number one in yards per carry (5.2). Compare that to the Cardinals defense, who doesn’t get run on all that much because for most of the season, they’ve been leading and teams have needed to throw the ball to catch them. Arizona is 27th in yards allowed per rush (4.8); don’t let their respectable 112.8 rush yards per game allowed fool you, they only face 24.7 rushing plays per game – 11th-fewest.

The Colts have won eight of 11 and are looking like a really scary team heading into the playoffs. They’re motivated, and not to say the Cardinals aren’t, but contrary to what many are saying this week, I think that loss to Detroit took a lot of the wind out of their sails. Many experts think that loss will motivate Arizona to bounce back. I think it’s caused them to question themselves. They’ve been doubted and pushed aside all year as overachievers and a team that will come back down to earth. And losing to the worst team in the league is naturally going to have these players questioning if the nay-sayers were right all along.

I’m not stepping in front of this Colts train, and I would go as far as to play them down to a pick ‘em. If you want to play Indy moneyline, don’t let me stop you – as long as you’re getting plus money.

Two-Team Teaser of the Week:

Green Bay Packers -1.5 / Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-120)

The Patriots ruined our teaser last week, so let’s get back on the winning trail. The weekly teaser is now 4-2 in the last six weeks.

Starting with the Packers, they’re the only team left with fewer than four losses. They’ve dealt with turmoil after turmoil this year, and have come out basically unscathed. Last week was scary, though. They almost lost to Tyler Huntley. But they’re coming back to the frozen tundra and I don’t care who’s playing quarterback for the Browns – Aaron Rodgers is better. And when we’re only laying -1.5, I’ll take the better QB almost every time. The Packers know they hold the keys to the number one seed in the NFC, and that’s immensely important as all the NFC playoff teams are warm weather teams. And in case you’re new here, it’s cold in Wisconsin in January. Rodgers knows it, Matt LaFleur knows it, and they’ll be ready to roll over a Browns team whose season took a huge hit last week in a loss to the Raiders. Packers big in this one, especially if Myles Garrett doesn’t play.

The Chiefs still being -7.5 despite their 14-player long COVID list tells me the market expects at least some of those players to suit up this weekend. The list is long, and it includes a lot of good players like Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Jones. But, don’t forget the Chiefs still have a ton of weapons like Mecole Hardman, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Darrel Williams. Oh yeah, and that Patrick Mahomes guy. All joking aside, I know the Steelers have a ton to play for, but their offense simply isn’t good enough to not only outscore Mahomes, but to put together a complete game against a Chiefs defense that’s actually played extremely well over the last two months. Like the Packers, the Chiefs know they control their own destiny to home field advantage. Mahomes and Andy Reid have been here before, I can’t see them falling to the Steelers at Arrowhead.

Note: if the Chiefs key players all remain out and you need a pivot, swap in Buffalo +8.5.

 

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