It is an unfortunate reality of fantasy football that wide receivers are dependent on their quarterbacks; yes, sure, there are a few (looking at you, Justin Jefferson) who are “quarterback proof,” but not many. No matter how good some are being in a shitty offense will stifle their productivity.
Here are four receivers whose ADP is slightly overvalued and who could bring your fantasy dreams to an abrupt stop. Remember you won’t win your fantasy league in your draft, but you can lose it there!
Just a little “housecleaning” before we get started: All betting odds are from bettingpros.com unless otherwise stated, and ADP is fantasypros.com half-PPR fantasy formats. Let’s go!
ADP 18.3, WR10
Adams is one of those players who is a sliver away from being “quarterback proof” (and thanks to Josh McDaniels “bad coach proof”). Just look what he accomplished last year playing with four different quarterbacks under center and it is worth mentioning that the combined passing yards for all three was 3,666 of which 1,144 went to Adams. The four quarterbacks together had 20 touchdowns and 18 interceptions and Adams still managed to emerge as WR10.
Adams finished last season with a 44.2% air yard share and, 33.1% target share with 175 targets with 29 of them being in the red zone (yet he only had eight touchdowns). He was a target whore and a volume beast but that was then.
This season, the Raiders begin with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and the 13th overall pick in the NFL 2024 Draft, tight end Brock Bowers, on the field. Brock Bowers is expected to relieve Adams of some of the target share and it is tough to imagine that newly announced starting quarterback Gardner Minshew can sustain two fantasy-relevant receivers.
This isn’t a knock-on on Adams’ talent, because it is there, it is just he is going before receivers who have a higher ceiling than he does because of their quarterbacks. You could take Atlanta Falcons’ Drake London (WR11, ADP 24.0) who has Kirk Cousins throwing to him, or even Travis Kelce (ADP 26.7) who we know is the first option in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes tossing him the ball.
Remember in fantasy drafts it isn’t always who you pick but more importantly, who are you passing on to make that pick?
Adams 2024 Betting Odds
- Offensive Player of Year +8000
- Total Receptions O 89.5 (even) U 89.5 (-124)
- Total Receiving Yards O 1000.5 (even) U 1000.5 (-110)
- Total Receiving Touchdowns O 6.5 (even) U 7.5 (-148)
ADP 40.0, WR 22
Diggs is currently going as the 42nd overall pick ahead of Mark Andrews, Amari Cooper, and Devonta Smith, all of whom have remained in the same system and except for Cooper have a quarterback who is not only comparable (or slightly better) but more familiar. Diggs is changing systems and unlike his last year in Buffalo has competition on the field for targets.
It isn’t only that Diggs has more competition, it is this competition was more efficient and more productive than Diggs, and the quarterback is more familiar with his receivers not named Diggs.
PRODUCTIVITY 2023
EFFICIENCY 2023
Stats courtesy of playerprofiler.com
There is little chance that Diggs will see a target share on the northern side of 25%, so unless he becomes super-efficient, expect his fantasy value to slide, lowering his ceiling and floor. In that same round, you could go with Lamar Jackson, Michael Pittman, or even Diggs’ teammate Joe Mixon, all of whom are going to offer higher ceilings and a safer floor.
Diggs 2024 Betting Odds
- Offensive Player of the Year, +7500
- Total Receptions, O 75.5, (even), U 75.5 (-124)
- Total Receiving Yards, O 900.5 (-110), U 900.5, (-110)
- Total Receiving Touchdowns, O 5.5 (-125), U 6.5 (-125)
- Comeback Player of the Year +15000
ADP 49.7, WR24
Listen, I like shiny new toys as much as the next person; I also like my new things to stay shiny and work well enough that I am compensated for the amount I put in. Enter Nabers or, more precisely, Daniel Jones. I’m not here to rag on Jones; others are taking care of that, but the unfortunate circumstance is rookie wide receiver Nabers will go as far as his quarterback can take him…and well…here’s hoping, or not.
Unfortunately, crossing your fingers and clicking your heels three times will not help you if you draft Nabers before DeVonta Smith, Mark Andrews, or Dalton Kincaid, all who are going after Nabers and all who are playing with better quarterbacks, better offensive lines, and better run games to even out the defensive pressure.
Nabers 2024 Betting Odds
- Total Receiving Yards, O 850.5 (-112), U 875.5 (-115)
- Total Receiving Touchdowns, O 4.5 (-125), U 4.5 (-115)
- Offensive Rookie of the Year, +1500
ADP 83.3, WR36
At first glance, it may seem that picking Reed in the seventh/eighth round is a safe bet until you see who he is going ahead of, Jake Ferguson, Jaylen Warren, and Diontae Johnson. Ferguson will only have Cee Dee Lamb competing for targets, Warren is hyper-efficient in an offense that will be run first, and Johnson is moving back to be the X receiver where he excels.
Reed is in an offense that has the second easiest schedule for wide receivers per fantasypros.com, he also has Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, all of whom out-snapped Reed last season and of this group, only Wicks had a lower snap share than Reed (47.6% to 56.8%).
The reason for concern with Reed is that he is almost exclusively a slot receiver and was only on the field when the Packers offense was in 11 personnel. Last year according to Pro Football Focus, Reed only had 14 snaps when the Packers played in two wide receiver sets and in 2023 that was for 378 of their approximately 1083 offensive snaps, Reed plays almost exclusively in three wide receiver sets (or 11 personnel).
For Reed to be fantasy-relevant, the Packers will have to play 11 personnel a lot, which they didn’t do last year.
- Packers were below league average in 11 personnel when the game was tied, 54.2%.
- The packers were below league average in 11 personnel when they were playing with a lead of 57.0%.
- Packers were higher than the league average in 11 personnel when playing from behind, 71.0%.
- The league average for teams playing 11 personnel last season was 63.3%.
The counterargument is last season during Weeks 14-18 (excluding Week 16) Reed averaged 19.95 fantasy points a game scoring double-digit fantasy points each week. This also coincides with tight end Luke Musgrave not being on the field because of injury and that is important because the Packers played 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers) on 31.6% of their offensive snaps, the third most in the league. When Musgrave went down with the injury the Packers played three wide receiver sets and Reed was back on the field.
The issue with Reed disappointing at his current ADP isn’t talent, it isn’t his quarterback or the offensive line, it is the offensive scheme the Packers play and their tendency to keep their wide receivers in their usual roles, (the Packers keeping wide receivers in the ‘usual roles’ the second most of all NFL teams).
Reed’s late surge contributed to his WR 25 finish last season. If Musgrave and Watson remain healthy this year and new running back Josh Jacobs produces like he did in 2022, Reed’s ceiling is limited, not by talent but by scheme.
Reed’s 2024 Betting Odds (per DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Offensive Player of the Year, +15000
- Total Receiving Yards, O 775.5 (-110), U 775.5 (-110)
- Total Receiving Touchdowns, O 4.5 (-120), U 4.5 (+100)
