FantasyDraft Lineup Advice: Week 4
How did we all do in FantasyDraft in Week 3? Any winners? If you have not played FantasyDraft this season, please check out my earlier article on what separates it from other Daily Fantasy Sites. You will not want to miss out!
Recap From Week 3:
- Great Hits – Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Todd Gurley, Michael Thomas, George Kittle, Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton, Jakeem Grant, Will Fuller
- Descent Calls – Emmanuel Sanders, Paul Richardson, Tevin Coleman
- Bad Calls – Golden Tate, Rob Gronkowski, Kenyan Drake, Latavius Murray, John Ross, Marquise Goodwin
FantasyDraft Cash Game Picks for Week 4
ProTip: Try to choose players in cash games that will be sufficient regardless of the game script. So whether the team is winning, losing, or in a tight matchup there usage on offense remains the same.
Players to Target
Philip Rivers ($12,300), Matt Ryan ($11,400), Drew Brees ($11,900) Deshaun Watson ($12,000) Andy Dalton ($11,400), Ben Roethlisberger ($11,300)
Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan are facing off this week in what projects to be one of the highest scoring games of the week. Second highest total projection on the week (51), this game features two quarterbacks that are coming in hot. Ryan has scored 30 plus fantasy points in back to back weeks and Dalton has scored 20 plus fantasy points in that same time frame. Ryan also leads the league in down the field passing efficiency. Via Pro Football Focus, Ryan has the highest adjusted completion percentage (64.3%) on thrown over 20 yards. Throw in the fact that Julio Jones leads the NFL in air yards and the Bengals have allowed the fifth most air yards? Matt Ryan is a lock for an above average outing at home. The Falcons have to put up points to combat their awful defense that has allowed fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback this season. Play Dalton confidently against the Falcons.
Alvin Kamara ($18,200), Melvin Gordon ($15,700), Saquon Barkley ($15,300) Giovani Bernard ($11,500), Ezekiel Elliot ($14,500)
Pay up for running backs in cash this week. All of these guys are elite options, but two specific players to point out that are little cheaper are Elliott and Bernard. Elliot currently leads the NFL in rushing yards and faces the Lions defense that has allowed the most rushing yards (150) per game to the running back position. Bernard is the chalk play of the week among the other Bengals players because of his price and his matchup. The Falcons cannot cover pass-catching running backs. On average they are allowing 12 receptions per game to the running back position. The next closest team on average allows 9 per game.
Michael Thomas ($16,900), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($12,300), Will Fuller ($12,700), DeAndre Hopkins ($15,500), Allen Robinson ($11,200), T.Y. Hilton ($12,700)
Play Hilton in cash games this week. The Colts-Texans game I predict will be higher scoring and I expect Hilton to eat as he traditionally does versus the Texans. In his career against Houston, Hilton averages 5.3 receptions for 94.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. Robinson is also another great cash play versus the Buccaneers defense who will be rolling out three rookies in their secondary in Week 4. Robinson leads the Bears in targets (28) so he should be able to produce in the favorable matchup.
Rob Gronkowski ($13,200), Eric Ebron ($7,100)
It’s very tough to find “safe” tight ends without paying up for some of the premier players. Gronkowski has an excellent matchup against the Dolphins. Jared Cook last week was very close to scoring and the Dolphins allowed the second most fantasy points to the tight end in 2017. Gronkowski also has a history of positive performance at home against the Dolphins. In his last three homes, games versus the Dolphins Gronk has totaled 4 touchdowns and 291 receiving yards. He is worth paying up for in cash and also in GPPs.
The cheapest safe tight end is probably Eric Ebron. The targets were there last week, but Ebron just did not deliver the product. However, if Jack Doyle misses again Ebron will play the majority of the snaps and have a great opportunity to produce against the Texans defense that has allowed two touchdowns over the past three weeks to the tight end spot.
Jaguars ($7,300), Chargers ($7,300), Seahawks ($6,300), Bears ($6,700), Eagles ($6,400)
GPP Game Picks for Week 4
Again, pay up for running backs this week. So far this season, daily fantasy owners have benefited from going cheaper at the wide receiver and quarterback position. It’s so much easier to exceed return on those positions.
Players to Target
Joe Flacco ($11,200), Eli Manning ($11,200), Russell Wilson ($11,200), Baker Mayfield ($10,900), Ryan Tannehill ($10,800)
Winning GPPs is all about getting the best value at the quarterback position. Makes it super easy to set the rest of your lineup. There are a ton of options this week for low priced quarterbacks that you can feel good about. Manning is playing the Saints who have allowed the most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season. Wilson after his early-season struggles is very low priced and could potentially be getting wide receiver Doug Baldwin back. And lastly, Mayfield, a player I highlighted in my waiver wire piece is an excellent contrarian play as well. He threw for 200 yards in essentially a single half against a Jets defense that had played very well during the first two weeks of the season. In Week 4, the Browns will take on the Raiders who just allowed a 25 point plus fantasy day to Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill. We have seen rookie quarterbacks time and time again produce in fantasy football, and what inspires hope for Mayfield is he actually has offensive weapons.
Also, don’t overlook Tannehill. Real sneaky. In his last four starts against the Patriots, Tannehill has averaged over 345 passing yards and 1.25 passing touchdowns. And that Patriots defense through the first three weeks? They have allowed over 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Solid DFS play for Week 4.
Kenyan Drake ($10,800), Sony Michel ($9,500), James White ($9,200), Aaron Jones ($8,100), Kerryon Johnson ($8,700)
Again, as I mentioned in the tips at the top pay up for running backs in both cash and GPP formats. However to diversify your lineups here are a few other options of far less owned running backs. Aaron Jones for me is the definition of a tournament winner at the running back position. I think there’s a real potential this could be the game he separates himself from the other Packers RBs. It’s a plus matchup, with a game script that looks to be in Jones’ favor. And just listen to what Aaron Rodgers had to say when referencing Jones.
Aaron Rodgers wants Aaron Jones on the field… pic.twitter.com/cFHehxver0
— Jake (@SeedsofJake) September 27, 2018
Jones led the team with 6 carries for 42 yards in Week 3, and was fine in is own pass protection. He’s so cheap in DFS this week, but he has a top-10 upside for sure if the Packers jump out to a lead.
Keenan Allen ($15,200), Marvin Jones ($10,200), Sterling Shepard ($9,700), Ted Ginn Jr. ($9,300), Antonio Callaway ($8,900) Taywan Taylor ($7,200), Quincy Enuwa ($8,500), Rishard Higgins ($6,600), Martavis Bryant ($6,700)
Players are fading Keenan Allen which is exactly why you need to play him in your GPP formats. His matchup this week is extremely good and screams being a bounce-back performance. From his primary position in the slot, Allen will draw coverage from San Francisco 49er K’Waun Williams, who has struggled thus far this season. The 49ers as a group have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
My other favorite player is Callaway in daily formats this week. The Raiders defense through the first three weeks has allowed the second most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. What really drives Callaway as a potential sleeper this week is that the Raiders average depth of target allowed to opposing offenses. The Raiders have allowed an average depth of target of 10.3, second highest in the NFL. This team can be beaten deep and that is exactly what Callaway brings to the table.
Lastly, I will call this my shot in dark pick: Martavis Bryant. In three straight weeks from the Raiders, we have seen three different players go over 100 yards. Week 1 was Jared Cook, Week 2 was Amari Cooper, and Week 3 it was Jordy Nelson. Bryant did see an uptick in snap percentage in Week 3, along with 5 targets. It’s a long shot for sure, but you have to be bold in tournaments to win.
Rob Gronkowski ($13,200), Tyler Eifert ($7,400), David Njoku ($5,600), Eric Ebron ($7,100), Ricky Seal-Jones ($5,600) Rhett Ellison ($5,200)
Again, I really only feel comfortable playing Gronkowski in daily this week, but there are other options that are intriguing. Specifically, I think Eifert is in a great spot. He finally looks to be healthy and with points flying in the Bengals-Falcons games seeing him landing in the end zone seems pretty probable. The Falcons are so banged up especially at safety Eifert’s upside could definitely be a multiple touchdown performance. There’s a chance that A.J. Green’s play is limited on Sunday because of his injury, so pivoting off Green to Eifert is a great move.
Patriots ($5,500), Raiders ($4,900), Cowboys ($4,600), Cardinals ($5,000), Colts ($4,200), Jets ($4,600), Browns ($5,100), Buccaneers ($4,100)
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