Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Week 10

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Running Back By Committee

After a bye week, the RBBC Review is back!  I’ve included some new features to help you figure out which running backs in the most trying committees are the ones to roll out either in Week 10 or for the rest-of-the-season.  One new component is expanding the team backfield breakdowns to include the season so far. I included these to be able to show trends in player usage. I also included weekly opponents so you can get an idea about the level of defense that a player faced and whether or not that may have led to a better than typical fantasy day.

I am still keeping the central theme of looking at the involvement a player has overall in the offense – % offense. This is more important than just the number of snaps or the number of touches a back gets. This shows how much the team is actually feeding him the ball as opposed to other players. Statistically, % offense is more correlated with fantasy points scored than Snap % or # of touches by over 10%. I also include PPR Points per 100 snaps from Fantasydata.com to help show what a back could be earning if handling the same number of snaps as another back. Without further ado…The RBBC Review Week 10!

Season Long Workhorses

Rank	Player	Team	Played	SNAP%	SNAP / GAME	% OFF	PPR Pts
1	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	8	93	63.4	40%	246.4
2	Dalvin Cook	MIN	9	70	46.8	36%	208.2
3	Leonard Fournette	JAX	9	89	62.4	36%	156.6
4	Le’Veon Bell	NYJ	8	91	57.4	35%	117.7
5	Nick Chubb	CLE	8	73	49.4	34%	151.4
6	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	8	80	56	33%	149.7
7	Josh Jacobs	OAK	8	57	36.8	32%	131.2
8	Chris Carson	SEA	9	73	51.9	32%	140.1
9	Derrick Henry	TEN	9	60	39.7	30%	137.8
10	Marlon Mack	IND	8	62	44.4	30%	105.7
11	Aaron Jones	GB	9	61	40.8	28%	184
12	David Montgomery	CHI	8	58	37.8	26%	99.9

I decided to expand the Season Long Work Horses out to the top-12 versus just the same handful above 33%. Expanding it out allows us to see guys like David Montgomery strarting to creap up in usage (especially after his monster game this past week).  Similar to how when it was just a handful of guys, all of these twelve players are top-24 RBs and all but three are top-10 in PPR points. So, yes his price just went up, but if you try now you might be able to get Montgomery before he gets an increased workload and becomes a real “workhorse”.

Arizona Cardinals

RBBC Review

Player	WK	OPP	SNAP%	Plays Utilized	% Offense	PPR Pts	PPR Pts / 100
Kenyan Drake	9	SF	84.2	19	33%	28.2	58.8
Chase Edmonds	8	NO	61.2	11	22%	3.3	11
Chase Edmonds	7	NYG	93.8	31	48%	35	57.4
David Johnson	7	NYG	4.6	1	2%	0.2	6.7
David Johnson	6	ATL	75.4	20	29%	28.2	54.2
Chase Edmonds	6	ATL	29	7	10%	14.7	73.5
David Johnson	5	CIN	70.1	22	29%	18.6	34.4
Chase Edmonds	5	CIN	35.1	12	16%	17.6	65.2
David Johnson	4	SEA	85.7	22	35%	21.9	40.6
Chase Edmonds	4	SEA	20.6	6	10%	3.7	28.5
David Johnson	3	CAR	86.7	20	27%	18.5	28.5
Chase Edmonds	3	CAR	12	5	7%	3.5	38.9
David Johnson	2	BAL	60	8	13%	8.4	23.3
Chase Edmonds	2	BAL	40	3	5%	3.7	15.4
David Johnson	1	DET	86.5	25	28%	25.7	33.4
Chase Edmonds	1	DET	11.2	2	2%	0.5	5

Drake is new to Arizona and has shown what he can do at least for one week. David Johnson is getting healthy and “should” back in Week 10 while Chase Edmonds might be coming back in a couple of weeks. With DJ returning, he is clearly the back to own and start. Drake should still be owned but it is going to be difficult to start him. I expect Drake to fill the role that Edmonds was occupying. Edmonds was typically around 10% of the teams’ offensive plays while DJ was typically around 30-35%. As we saw in Weeks 5 & 6, Edmonds was able to be fantasy relevant with 16% and 10% of the team’s offensive plays (respectively). Drake brings the same big-play ability to the field that Edmonds did. I like Drake as a Flex play and DJ as an RB2/Flex. You may also need to hamper your expectations for this backfield given the string of difficult matchups they face throughout the rest of the fantasy season. Arizona will only face one team currently in the top-16 in terms of fantasy points allowed to runningbacks (Cleveland in week 15) Weeks 10 through 16

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Los Angeles Chargers

RBBC Review

Name	WK	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Utilized	% Offense	PPR Pts	PPR Pts/100
Melvin Gordon	9	GB	63.4	24	34%	25.9	57.6
Austin Ekeler	9	GB	33.8	16	23%	13.3	55.4
Justin Jackson	9	GB	7	3	4%	2.4	48
Melvin Gordon	8	CHI	55.6	11	24%	11.4	45.6
Austin Ekeler	8	CHI	53.3	6	13%	10.2	42.5
Melvin Gordon	7	TEN	53.1	19	30%	8.9	26.2
Austin Ekeler	7	TEN	59.4	13	20%	25.5	67.1
Melvin Gordon	6	PIT	59.7	12	19%	7.8	21.1
Austin Ekeler	6	PIT	45.2	9	15%	5.8	20.7
Austin Ekeler	5	DEN	65.7	19	27%	22.3	48.5
Melvin Gordon	5	DEN	45.7	18	26%	7.8	24.4
Austin Ekeler	4	MIA	71.6	23	34%	29.2	60.8
Austin Ekeler	3	HOU	65.3	16	21%	15.1	30.8
Justin Jackson	3	HOU	37.3	9	12%	7	25
Austin Ekeler	2	DET	73.1	23	34%	23.3	47.6
Justin Jackson	2	DET	26.9	8	12%	7.4	41.1
Austin Ekeler	1	IND	75	19	30%	39.4	82.1
Justin Jackson	1	IND	25	9	14%	7.1	44.4

Melvin Gordon is starting to look like the top-end fantasy running back we knew him as but Austin Ekeler is still lurking and taking touches and more importantly receptions. Gordon had his best game of the year in a suprise victory over the Green Bay Packers. It kind of looks like the first few weeks back from Gordon’s hold out were the preseason warm-up games that everyone else did in August. Interestingly enough, Gordon has had a higher PPR Pts / 100 Snaps than Ekeler in three of the five games since he as been back. He has also outsnaped and had a higher % of the Offense than Ekeler in every game since Week 6. Gordon is the back to own here and should finish inside the top-24 RBs for the rest of the season if not higher. Ekeler on the otherhand is fading from the top-10 RB talk to a Flex play bolstered by receiving and big play ability.  If you still have time before your trade deadline try to flip Ekeler and another piece to sure up a weaker position as you prepare for the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

RBBC Reivew

Name	WK	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Utilized	% Offense	PPR Pts	PPR Pts/100
Devin Singletary	9	WAS	66.1	24	39%	23	56.1
Frank Gore	9	WAS	33.9	11	18%	1.5	7.1
Frank Gore	8	PHI	29	9	15%	3.4	18.9
Devin Singletary	8	PHI	67.7	9	14%	14.9	35.5
Frank Gore	7	MIA	53.6	12	21%	7.6	25.3
Devin Singletary	7	MIA	39.3	7	12%	2.6	11.8
Frank Gore	5	TEN	50.8	16	25%	8.9	27
TJ Yeldon	5	TEN	49.2	6	9%	6.8	21.2
Frank Gore	4	NE	45.8	18	22%	10.9	28.7
TJ Yeldon	4	NE	54.2	4	5%	10.8	24
Frank Gore	3	CIN	62.8	16	21%	16.9	34.5
TJ Yeldon	3	CIN	37.2	11	14%	4.9	16.9
Frank Gore	2	NYG	59.2	21	28%	16.3	36.2
Devin Singletary	2	NYG	32.9	6	8%	11.7	46.8
TJ Yeldon	2	NYG	6.6	0	0%	0	0
Frank Gore	1	NYJ	27.5	11	16%	2	10.5
Devin Singletary	1	NYJ	69.6	10	14%	14.8	30.8
TJ Yeldon	1	NYJ	2.9	0	0%	0	0

Devin Singletary is back! But Gore isn’t going anywhere at the moment. Singletary is the back to own and start in your fantasy rosters. Yes, it does feel slightly dirty getting excited about the Buffalo Bills. But Singletary is an exciting back and with an upswing in usage we may be instore for some real fireworks to finish out the season. The only thing that could hold him back is the difficult schedule he faces in the fantasy playoffs. After two cake weeks ( the Browns and then the Dolphins in weeks 10 and 11), the Bills face only one team outside the top-12 best teams against fantasy running backs, thats the Cowboys in week 13 who are the 17th best against fantasy RBs. As much as I want Singletary to be an absolute stud to finish the year, if you are in a traditional redraft league, try to trade him after Week 11. In any league where you carry players over from one year to the next, keep Singletary!

Houston Texans

RBBC Review

Name	WK	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Utilized	% Offense	PPR Pts	PPR Pts/100
Carlos Hyde	9	JAX	55.7	19	27%	14	35.9
Duke Johnson	9	JAX	47.1	12	17%	19.1	57.9
Carlos Hyde	8	OAK	51.8	20	24%	8.3	19.3
Duke Johnson	8	OAK	44.6	8	10%	13.4	36.2
Carlos Hyde	7	IND	40	13	20%	3.5	13.5
Duke Johnson	7	IND	60	12	18%	7.6	19.5
Carlos Hyde	6	KC	60.9	27	29%	18	32.1
Duke Johnson	6	KC	37	9	10%	13.4	39.4
Carlos Hyde	5	ATL	64.4	22	30%	12	25.5
Duke Johnson	5	ATL	39.7	10	14%	7.7	26.6
Carlos Hyde	4	CAR	47.8	17	25%	10.4	31.5
Duke Johnson	4	CAR	65.2	9	13%	9.8	21.8
Carlos Hyde	3	LAC	51.7	10	17%	7.9	25.5
Duke Johnson	3	LAC	48.3	5	8%	4.4	15.2
Carlos Hyde	2	JAX	60.6	20	30%	9	22.5
Duke Johnson	2	JAX	39.4	7	11%	3.1	11.9
Duke Johnson	1	NO	62.7	14	21%	13	31
Carlos Hyde	1	NO	37.3	11	16%	9.5	38

I was surprised to realize that the Houston Texans have the fourth most rushing yards in the league. They are beating teams with fantasy studs like CMC, Zeke, etc (basically everyone but Dalvin Cook). The Texans obviously have an effective rushing attack – the only problem for fantasy is the committee approach that is being employed. Only one time since the start of the season did the two backs combine for less than a third of the Texans offense.  Contrary to the correlations described above, Duke Johnson has scored more fantasy points on a lesser percentage of the offense than Carlos Hyde over the past three weeks. However, the volume for Hyde remains promising – over the last two games Hyde has almost doubled Johnson’s number of plays used.  I want both of these guys to be trade targets but the brutal schedule they have to finish out the year is not appealing. If I had to chose a back, I would go after Johnson as a cheap flex option that should get enough work in the passing game to make him worth starting on occasion.

Kansas City

RBBC Review

Name	WK	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Utilized	% Offense	PPR Pts	PPR Pts/100
Damien Williams	9	MIN	71.7	14	23%	20.8	48.4
LeSean McCoy	9	MIN	10	4	7%	1.9	31.7
Darrel Williams	9	MIN	18.3	2	3%	0.1	0.9
LeSean McCoy	8	GB	39	13	22%	8.3	36.1
Damien Williams	8	GB	42.4	7	12%	9	36
Darrel Williams	8	GB	15.3	2	3%	1	11.1
LeSean McCoy	7	DEN	42.6	14	23%	9.6	36.9
Damien Williams	7	DEN	27.9	12	20%	2.6	15.3
Darrel Williams	7	DEN	29.5	4	7%	2.6	14.4
LeSean McCoy	6	HOU	50	10	17%	6.4	22.1
Darrel Williams	6	HOU	12.1	2	3%	6.2	88.6
Damien Williams	6	HOU	37.9	2	3%	9	40.9
Damien Williams	5	IND	55.6	13	21%	6.8	19.4
LeSean McCoy	5	IND	22.2	2	3%	2.3	16.4
Darrel Williams	5	IND	22.2	0	0%	0	0
LeSean McCoy	4	DET	45.7	15	21%	16.9	52.8
Darrel Williams	4	DET	51.4	12	17%	18.6	51.7
Darrel Williams	3	BAL	54.4	14	21%	15.9	43
LeSean McCoy	3	BAL	38.2	11	16%	23	88.5
LeSean McCoy	2	OAK	40.8	14	18%	5.3	17.1
Damien Williams	2	OAK	51.3	14	18%	8.6	22.1
Damien Williams	1	JAX	66.2	19	28%	18.5	41.1
LeSean McCoy	1	JAX	29.4	11	16%	10.3	51.5

Damien Williams finally put up a top-10 RB fantasy day but what does that mean for LeSean McCoy? Probably not much. The two will be part of a consistent RBBC for the rest of the year barring any injuries. The problem is both of these guys have had their issues with injuries. Damien Williams is the guy to own simply for upside and hopefully, you were able to buy him for cheap during his early to midseason slump. I am still not a believer in the Damien Williams though! He is just the better of some very mediocre options in Kansas City – I mean was it too much to ask for them to make a trade for an RB before the deadline just so fantasy football could be more exciting. I fear that the Chiefs are worse than an RBBC they are a “hot-hand” RBBC. The major issue being that you as a fantasy owner will have to guess each week who the “hot hand” will be. This is a game I would rather not play. If you are open to the risk, Damien Williams will have an opportunity to put up some big time numbers. However, he also has the potential to get 2.6 PPR points on 12 plays where he was the focal point.

Bonus!

Cleveland Browns

RBBC Review

This is purely projecting since there are no numbers to base this assumption on but thought it would be a fun way to close out the week. Coach Freddy Kitchens has said that Hunt will have a role in the offense. The problem is that from and NFL perspective the offense has been terrible. the Browns are 2-6 and are the third-worst team in the AFC. They are bottom ten in points scored per game. The bright spot for the offense has been the running game with Nick Chubb. Chubb has over 800 yards rushing with six touchdowns and an additional 161 yards receiving on 25 receptions. But he also has 3 fumbles over his last three games. Hunt could be eased into a third-down back type of role. He has a history as an RB that can be a dual-threat running and catching the ball. I don’t see Hunt taking full control of the backfield without an injury or the fumbles from Chubb continuing. Hunt does reduce Chubb’s ceiling but it is possible that both backs can have RB2/Flex value on a weekly basis moving forward partly because the Browns also get three easy matchups against the Dolphins, Bengals, and Cardinals over the last six weeks of fantasy.

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