Fantasy Players That Should Outperform Their ADP
The longer you play fantasy football, the more you realize that no player should be off-limits, as value when drafting is the key to the game. If you’re not a fan of a wide receiver but they fall two rounds below their average draft position, then he no longer has to live up to the expectations of his ADP, which is what you judged them on to begin with.
This season I have been leaning more into “MoneyBall” drafting. It’s the concept of viewing draft picks as fantasy points, instead of players that may let me down. The goal is not overthinking, and to use past seasons to see what certain players are worth based on where they go in the draft. I talk about this in an article I wrote on Justin Jefferson, and why I feel he is overpriced in 2026.
The following are 10 players who will outperform their ADP in 2026. Barring injury, I believe they will get you more fantasy points based on where you can draft them.
ADP 40 (WR17)
Zay Flowers is one of the clearest value plays on the board this year. His ADP makes him the 17th receiver off the board, a range usually reserved for complementary WR2 types. Flowers is not that. He finished as the WR7 in PPR last season and led all Ravens pass catchers in target share by a wide margin.
The target math only improves in 2026. DeAndre Hopkins and Isaiah Likely are both gone, and together they accounted for roughly 75 targets a year ago. Baltimore drafted two rookie receivers, but neither projects for a real weapon in year one. Mark Andrews remains the likely second-best option, but he is entering his age-31 season coming off a down year efficiency-wise. Little stands between Flowers and an even larger share of the offense.
Flowers ranked top-5 in the league in target share and fourth in yards per route run last season, production levels well above his current price point. Baltimore also has a new coaching staff, with Jesse Minter as head coach and Declan Doyle running the offense, a change that could bring more varied usage for a receiver capable of winning from anywhere on the field.
The Ravens signed Flowers to a four-year, 140 million dollar extension with 108 million guaranteed, making him the second-highest-paid player on the roster. That is not the kind of deal teams give a complementary piece.
The counterargument is touchdowns. Flowers has never topped five in a season. But touchdown regression tends to even out, and a player already producing at a WR7 level does not need touchdown luck to justify pick 40. He needs it to justify a first-round price.
ADP 42 (WR19)
Garrett Wilson’s ADP reflects last year’s injury more than his actual talent. Before a knee injury ended his 2025 season in Week 7, Wilson was playing like a top-10 fantasy receiver, commanding a 31% target share and a nearly 46% first-read share, numbers that put him firmly in WR1 territory. Wilson enters 2026 fully healthy and a full participant in training camp.
The big change for 2026 is at quarterback. Geno Smith replaces a rotating cast of below-average passers, and new playcaller Frank Reich has a track record of getting his top receiver to a high weekly ceiling. Early camp reports already show real chemistry between Wilson and Smith, including a touchdown grab in a recent padded practice.
The Jets did add target competition, drafting Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. in the first round. That is worth acknowledging, but neither rookie is likely to threaten Wilson’s role as the clear top option in year one. New York also just signed him to a $130 million extension, a clear statement about who the offense is built around long term.
At WR19, Wilson is being priced like a fringe WR2. His per-game production last season before the injury, plus real quarterback improvement, points to more.
The stigma of being on the Jets, and coming off an injury-plagued season, is hurting his fantasy stock; I fully expect him to rebound in 2026.
ADP 45 (WR20)
Ladd McConkey’s ADP of 45 prices him like a fringe WR2, but his 2024 rookie tape says he belongs much higher. McConkey topped 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie before a banged-up offensive line, and Keenan Allen’s target share dragged his efficiency down in 2025.
Both of those problems look fixable. The Chargers brought in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, and McDaniel has already said he expects the receiver room to exceed career highs. His scheme is built on quick, rhythm throws designed to get playmakers moving in space, a system that fits McConkey’s skill set well. Keenan Allen also remains unsigned, and recent reporting suggests the Chargers view their receiving corps as set without him, which would open up a significant chunk of the 122 targets Allen commanded last season.
A minor hamstring strain popped up in the offseason program, but McConkey is expected to be full-go for camp, and early reports already have him among Justin Herbert’s favorite targets in team drills.
At WR20, McConkey is being drafted as a low-end contributor. A new play caller who wants to feature him, a departed target competitor, and a return to full health point toward something closer to his rookie-year ceiling.
ADP 62 (RB26)
Jadarian Price’s path to volume is about as clean as it gets for a rookie back. Seattle lost lead back Kenneth Walker III in free agency, and Zach Charbonnet is opening camp on the PUP list following a torn ACL. That leaves a first-round pick with a wide-open runway.
Camp reports back up the opportunity. Price has already jumped George Holani on the depth chart and took the first-team reps in Seattle’s first full-team scrimmage. Beat coverage describes an upward trajectory, with the Seahawks deliberately working him into passing-game drills across multiple units. One outlook piece projects a path to 275 to 300 touches as a rookie, workhorse volume that would make him one of the highest-value backs at his draft cost.
The one real question is receiving efficiency. Price caught just 15 passes on 18 targets in his final college season with modest per-route production, so his early-down role is the safer bet than a big receiving role in PPR formats. Seattle’s offense should still support him. The Seahawks want to lean on the run to set up play-action for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the rest of the passing game, which points to real rushing volume regardless of passing-down usage.
At RB26, Price is priced like a committee back. The camp reports point to something closer to a lead role from Week 1.
ADP 68 (TE6)
Tucker Kraft’s ADP of 68 undersells what he was doing before a Week 9 knee injury ended his 2025 season. Through eight games, Kraft was the TE2 in fantasy scoring behind only Trey McBride, posting 32 catches, 489 yards, and 6 touchdowns while averaging an elite 2.33 yards per route run.
The recovery timeline looks favorable. Kraft opened camp on the PUP list as a formality, but he has already been activated and cleared to practice. Both his head coach and Kraft himself have expressed confidence he will be full-go for the season opener.
The target picture around him also improved. Green Bay moved on from Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks this offseason without bringing in a clear replacement, vacating 131 targets with no obvious new home. Kraft, already one of the most efficient pass catchers at his position, is positioned to absorb a real chunk of that void.
At TE6, Kraft is being drafted behind several tight ends who never approached his per-game production last season. The injury discount is understandable given the recovery timeline, but the medical updates so far point toward a healthy Week 1. A back-to-form Kraft has legitimate top-3 tight end upside at a TE6 price.
ADP 69 (WR30)
Carnell Tate’s ADP of 69 undersells the role Tennessee is building around him. The Titans made him the fourth overall pick in the 2026 draft specifically to give Cam Ward a true No. 1 target, something the offense lacked entirely last season.
The early returns support that plan. Tate built real chemistry with Ward throughout the offseason program, catching 17 passes across seven open OTA and minicamp sessions. That carried into training camp, where he has continued making plays, including a deep completion and a red-zone touchdown that circulated widely among Titans coverage. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has praised his ball skills and how quickly he has acclimated to the offense.
Tate will share the receiver room with Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley, but neither profiles as a true alpha target earner. Robinson works best underneath and in the slot, while Ridley is coming off a restructured contract as a veteran complementary piece. Tate’s size and contested-catch ability give him a distinct role as the outside, downfield threat Ward has never had.
At WR30, Tate is being drafted like a fringe roster piece. A fourth overall pick with strong camp buzz and a clear path to lead the position group offers far more than that price suggests.
ADP 88 (WR37)
Michael Wilson’s 2025 breakout gets dismissed too easily. Yes, his best stretches came when Marvin Harrison Jr. was out of the lineup. But the role Arizona is building for him in 2026 is becoming clearer.
New head coach Mike LaFleur has explicitly slotted Wilson into the Z receiver role, the same role Puka Nacua has played in the Rams offense LaFleur helped build. Harrison takes the X receiver spot, modeled on Davante Adams, which is more isolation and red zone work. Wilson’s role is different by design. It is built around consistent targets through motion and run-game involvement rather than competing with Harrison for the same looks.
Early training camp reporting backs this up. Harrison currently holds a target edge in camp reps, but multiple reports describe Wilson as the more consistent, more productive receiver through the first weeks, while Harrison has dealt with a drop problem. That dynamic is worth watching heading into the season.
There is a real regression risk here. A more run-focused offense with Jeremiyah Love in the backfield could cap the ceiling for every Cardinals pass catcher. But Wilson’s role was purpose-built this offseason, not left to chance, and he is already showing in camp that he can hold up in it.
At WR37, Wilson is priced as a bench piece. A defined role in a proven scheme archetype, plus early camp performance that has outpaced Arizona’s presumed WR1, makes him a solid bet to beat that number.
ADP 93 (RB35)
Gridiron Experts is very high on two value RBs, Jadarian Price and Blake Corum, in 2026.
Corum’s ADP of 93 treats him like a straight backup. His usage pattern down the stretch of 2025 says otherwise. From Week 10 through the end of the season, Corum played like an RB35 in fantasy scoring and beat his expected point total while the Rams leaned on him more and more as the year went on.
The efficiency backs up the volume trend. Corum ranked in the top ten among qualifying backs in explosive run rate last season and finished top 15 in missed tackle rate, numbers that suggest a back who is more than just a change-of-pace piece. As Los Angeles trimmed Kyren Williams’ workload in the second half of the season, Corum stepped in and produced without much drop-off.
The setup for 2026 looks even better. Sean McVay has already said publicly that he expects Corum to be a bigger factor in the offense, and Kyren Williams himself noted this summer that Corum looks leaner and more explosive in camp. Multiple independent camp reports back up that read, describing a noticeably improved player early in training camp. The Rams also chose not to add any competition at the position, a clear signal about how they view his role.
At RB35, Corum is being drafted as bench depth. His second-half role last season, positive camp buzz, and status as arguably the best handcuff in fantasy make him a strong bet to beat that price, with real weekly flex value even in a shared backfield.
ADP 108 (WR43)
Jordan Addison’s ADP of 108 reflects a career-low 2025 season, but the underlying cause points more toward opportunity than talent. Addison missed the first three games to suspension and then played most of the year with inconsistent quarterback play. When Carson Wentz took over under center for a four-game stretch, Addison instantly looked like a completely different player, producing at a WR12 pace.
That matters heading into 2026 because Minnesota enters the season without a suspension hanging over Addison and with real competition at quarterback between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy. Either outcome represents an upgrade over the version of McCarthy that struggled through most of last season. Early camp reports already show strong chemistry between Addison and Murray, including a deep connection down the sideline.
The front office’s actions back up the belief in Addison’s role. Minnesota exercised his fifth-year option this spring and did not draft a rookie receiver to challenge him. Trade rumors connecting him to Baltimore and other teams surfaced earlier in the offseason but have since faded, and he remains firmly on the roster entering camp.
At WR43, Addison is being priced like a fringe depth piece. His rookie season alone, a 70-catch, 10-touchdown campaign, shows what he looks like with stable quarterback play. A cleaner offseason and better quarterback competition give him a real path back toward that level.
ADP 139 (QB21)
Tyler Shough’s finish to 2025 gets overlooked because it came on a bad team, but the numbers behind it are hard to ignore. Once he took over as the starter in Week 9, the Saints offense transformed. New Orleans jumped from a struggling unit under Spencer Rattler to averaging nearly 20 points and 265 passing yards per game with Shough at the controls, going 5-4 down the stretch.
The late-season numbers are even more encouraging. Over the final stretch of the season, Shough ranked as a top-6 fantasy quarterback in points per game, adding real rushing production on top of his passing improvement. That combination of accurate downfield throwing and mobility gives him a higher weekly floor than most quarterbacks being drafted around him.
The situation around him only improved this offseason. Chris Olave remains a proven No. 1 target coming off a 100-catch season, and the Saints added Travis Etienne in the backfield along with first-round rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson. Head coach Kellen Moore runs a pass-heavy, high-tempo system that should continue to lean into what worked once Shough took over.
At QB21, Shough is being treated as a backup-caliber pick. His second-half performance last season, combined with real offensive upgrades around him, makes him one of the better streaming and QB2 options in fantasy drafts this year, with the upside to be a weekly starter if the growth continues.
