Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 5

By Eric Moody

Posted on October 4, 2018

Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 5

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Adam Thielen and Antonio Brown are the only wide receivers with 50 or more targets entering Week 5. There are nine over receivers with 40 or more targets. Julio Jones (32), Corey Davis (32), Jarvis Landry (31), and DeAndre Hopkins (30) are the only receivers with team target shares over 30 percent. Jones (713), Hopkins (669), and John Brown (662) are the only receivers with 600 or more Air Yards. Cooper Kupp (1.67) currently leads all receivers with 20 or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Jones (0.84) is leading the position in Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Other notable wide receivers with high WOPRs entering Week 5 are Davis (0.77), Odell Beckham (0.75), and Thielen (0.73). You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week we will break down all of the wide receiver target leaders with 10 or more targets entering Week 5. As always I will provide a brief analysis of one to two players per tier.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
1	Adam Thielen	MIN	4	56	40	473	99.3
2	Antonio Brown	PIT	4	53	29	272	74.2

Adam Thielen is currently the WR2 in PPR formats, has the second most receptions, the second most receiving, and is averaging 130 Air Yards per game. He also has positive receiving fantasy points over expectation which suggests Thielen is outperforming his target volume.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
3	Juju Smith-Schuster	PIT	4	49	31	416	78.6
4	Jarvis Landry	CLE	4	47	24	312	63.2
5	Julio Jones	ATL	4	46	29	502	80.3
6	Odell Beckham Jr	NYG	4	45	31	331	65
7	Michael Thomas	NO	4	44	42	445	101
7	Golden Tate	DET	4	44	28	389	85.8
7	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	4	44	30	443	85.6
7	Stefon Diggs	MIN	4	44	27	311	79
11	Davante Adams	GB	4	43	28	285	74.5

Michael Thomas, like Thielen, is another receiver outperforming his average draft position. He is the WR1 in PPR formats, receptions leader, has a catch rate of 96 percent, ranked fourth in receiving yards, and has the second most targets in the red zone. Thomas is averaging an insane 6.6 receiving fantasy points over expectation.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
12	Mike Evans	TB	4	39	29	426	87.6
12	Corey Davis	TEN	4	39	22	312	59.2
12	Nelson Agholor	PHI	4	39	25	167	50.1
15	T.Y. Hilton	IND	4	38	21	294	62.4
16	Quincy Enunwa	NYJ	4	37	21	278	54.8

Corey Davis is someone I have been championing for the last few weeks due to his target share and Air Yards per game. It was great to see him go boom statistically in Week 4.
Mike Evans has quietly put together one of his most efficient starts to a season in his career. He is averaging 7.3 receiving fantasy points over expectation. Evans comes out of the bye week with very favorable matchups against the Falcons, Browns, and Bengals. All three of these team defenses rank near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed per game.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
17	Tyler Boyd	CIN	4	36	26	349	73.4
17	Keenan Allen	LAC	4	36	24	282	56.2
19	Robert Woods	LAR	4	34	24	323	76.2
19	Michael Crabtree	BAL	4	34	18	184	42.4
21	AJ Green	CIN	4	33	20	297	77.7
21	Brandin Cooks	LAR	4	33	26	452	78.8
21	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	4	33	20	168	42.8
24	Cooper Kupp	LAR	4	32	24	348	84.1
24	Tyreek Hill	KC	4	32	23	364	78.5
24	Kenny Golladay	DET	4	32	23	330	68
24	Allen Robinson	CHI	4	32	19	217	46.7
28	John Brown	BAL	4	30	15	338	67.2
28	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	4	30	24	314	72.7
28	Amari Cooper	OAK	4	30	21	270	54.9

The season-ending injury to Tyler Eifert will allow Tyler Boyd to see some additional targets. He has a favorable matchup this week against the Dolphins defense.
John Brown is not too far behind Michael Crabtree in targets but has nearly doubled his Air Yards. He is the Ravens receiver to have on your roster from a fantasy football perspective.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
31	Geronimo Allison	GB	4	29	19	289	59.9
31	Sterling Shepard	NYG	4	29	24	229	60.9
31	Marvin Jones	DET	4	29	15	233	50.3
31	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	4	29	22	193	56
35	Dede Westbrook	JAX	4	28	21	294	54.9
36	Randall Cobb	GB	3	27	17	194	40.4
37	Phillip Dorsett	NE	4	26	16	165	44.5
37	Willie Snead	BAL	4	26	18	198	43.8
39	Will Fuller	HOU	3	25	17	263	61.3
40	Jordy Nelson	OAK	4	24	16	274	57.4
40	Keelan Cole	JAX	4	24	17	225	45.5
40	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	4	24	16	184	42
40	Antonio Callaway	CLE	4	24	10	155	32.2
40	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	4	24	15	141	29.1
45	Tyler Lockett	SEA	4	23	17	249	60.4

Antonio Callaway (387) has the second highest number of Air Yards on the Browns behind Jarvis Landry (492). He is averaging 9.5 targets over the last two games. Callaway is in a great position to go boom once he builds rapport with Baker Mayfield.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
46	DeSean Jackson	TB	4	22	17	424	77.4
46	Chris Godwin	TB	4	22	15	193	50.3
46	Ted Ginn	NO	4	22	12	135	40.1
46	Donte Moncrief	JAX	4	22	12	173	39.3
46	Ryan Grant	IND	4	22	18	188	42.8
51	Calvin Ridley	ATL	4	21	15	264	78.7
51	Sammy Watkins	KC	4	21	14	176	42.7
51	Devin Funchess	CAR	3	21	14	185	38.5
51	Brandon Marshall	SEA	4	21	10	125	28.5
51	Cole Beasley	DAL	4	21	16	185	34.5
51	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	4	21	12	121	30.1
51	Chester Rogers	IND	4	21	16	134	31.4
51	Kelvin Benjamin	BUF	4	21	7	92	22.2
51	Pierre Garcon	SF	4	21	11	141	25.1
60	Christian Kirk	ARI	4	20	16	149	31.6
60	Courtland Sutton	DEN	4	20	8	142	22.2

DeSean Jackson is only averaging 5.5 targets per game, but has a catch rate of 77 percent. He should still be viewed as a boom or bust receiver.
If Courtland Sutton happens to be available in your fantasy league he is someone I recommend you stash. He only has three fewer targets than Demaryius Thomas and has more Air Yards over the last two weeks. Sutton could see some additional opportunities the second half of the season if Thomas continues to struggle.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
62	Kenny Stills	MIA	4	19	12	224	52.4
62	Taywan Taylor	TEN	4	19	14	139	33.9
62	Rashard Higgins	CLE	4	19	13	178	30.8
62	Adam Humphries	TB	4	19	13	101	23.5
66	Mike Williams	LAC	4	18	12	204	50.4
67	Albert Wilson	MIA	4	17	12	161	47.9
67	Zay Jones	BUF	4	17	10	144	24.4

Mike Williams is another receiver to stash as an upside WR3 if he happens to be available. The Chargers used No. 7 overall pick on him back in the 2017 NFL Draft. Williams is finally healthy and provided fantasy players a taste of what he can bring to the table from a statistical perspective in Week 3. He currently leads the Chargers in Air Yards with 301.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
69	Jakeem Grant	MIA	4	16	11	152	38.7
69	Tyrell Williams	LAC	4	16	10	126	30
69	Danny Amendola	MIA	4	16	13	121	25.1
69	Robby Anderson	NYJ	4	16	8	108	19.9
69	Martavis Bryant	OAK	3	16	9	111	20.5
74	Chris Hogan	NE	4	15	8	109	30.9
74	John Ross	CIN	4	15	7	79	26.6
74	Terrelle Pryor	NYJ	4	15	8	158	23.8
74	Torrey Smith	CAR	3	15	7	67	19.7
74	Keke Coutee	HOU	1	15	11	109	21.7
74	Trent Taylor	SF	4	15	9	64	15.4
80	Paul Richardson	WAS	3	14	9	131	28.1
80	Allen Hurns	DAL	4	14	7	81	15.1

Success or failure for Keke Coutee comes down to the health of Will Fuller. He was heavily targeted in his rookie debut in Week 4, but Coutee had a depth of target or aDOT of only 3.4 yards. A high number of his touches were manufactured. It remains to be seen how Coutee vertical game translates to the NFL.

Rk	Name	Team	GM	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
82	Jarius Wright	CAR	3	13	9	92	24.2
82	Zach Pascal	IND	4	13	8	77	21.7
82	Ryan Switzer	PIT	4	13	11	55	23.9
82	Chad Williams	ARI	4	13	2	30	11
82	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	3	13	6	57	11.7
82	Josh Doctson	WAS	3	13	5	48	9.8
88	Cordarrelle Patterson	NE	4	12	8	90	25.9
88	Jamison Crowder	WAS	3	12	9	79	26.4
88	Chris Conley	KC	4	12	9	58	24.8
88	Bruce Ellington	HOU	3	12	8	92	23.2
88	Deonte Thompson	DAL	4	12	9	83	17.3
88	Michael Gallup	DAL	4	12	5	76	12.6
88	Andre Holmes	BUF	4	12	6	51	11.1
95	Anthony Miller	CHI	3	11	8	60	20
95	James Washington	PIT	4	11	5	49	15.9

Jamison Crowder is one of my favorite buy lows at the wide receiver position coming out of the Redskins bye week. He has a mouthwatering matchup against the Saints defense on Monday Night Football.

Secondary wide receivers vs #Saints this year:

Chris Godwin- 3-41-1
DeSean Jackson- 5-146-2
Antonio Callaway- 3-81-1
Calvin Ridley- 7-146-3
Sterling Shepard- 10-77-1

Jamison Crowder on Monday night?

— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) October 2, 2018

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?