Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleeper Picks

It’s only Week 4, and former number one pick Bryce Hall has been replaced; fantasy football consensus number one pick Christian McCaffrey has not played on the football field, and Justin Fields and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-0! Whose Bingo Card is still intact?

We can count on some constants (for now), the Dallas Cowboys own the New York Giants, quarterback Josh Allen is good at football (both fantasy and real), and Brian Flores’ defenses come ready to dominate. And not surprisingly none of these facts have anything to do with your sleeper picks for Week 4!

Sleeper picks for Week 4 will depend on the availability of some players, as last week, the NFL field was once again littered with injuries. Keep an eye on the status of Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (concussion), and Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (concussion) and welcome back Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (elevated to the 53-man roster).

Here are your sleepers for Week 4.

 

Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers, Quarterback

It is valid to question whether Dalton is a sleeper pick after reaching QB8 status last week. In his first appearance of the 2024 season, Dalton led the Panthers to a 36-22 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders by completing  26-of-37 passes, for 319 yards and three touchdowns. He was the first quarterback this season to throw for more than 300 yards and throw three touchdowns. Yes, it was against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that was giving up an average of 226 passing yards a game, but before that without Dalton, the Carolina Panthers averaged 176 yards and 6.5 points, so 300 plus and three touchdowns would have been a stretch to imagine.

Now this week the Panthers will play the Cincinnati Bengals at home, with the Panthers a 4.5-point home underdog.  The Bengals’ defense has allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt and given up the seventh-highest passer rating all while allowing the fifth-highest success rate per dropback. Last week rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels had a historic day against them setting an NFL rookie completion percentage record, 91.3%. For the season the Bengals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75% of their passes against them, last week Dalton collected a 120.4 QBR while completing 68.4% of his passes.

This game is tied with Buffalo v Baltimore for second highest over/under at 46.5, with the Panthers being a 4.5 underdog at home. Dalton will be playing against his former team where he has a 2-1 record in their previous matchups while throwing for four touchdowns and zero interceptions against them.

Prop Bets

  • Over 21.5 completions, (-101), Under 21.5 completions (-135)
  • Over/Under 219.5 passing yards (-137)
  • Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130), Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170)

 

Carson Steele, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are 3-0 despite subpar play from Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce averaging 8.6 yards per reception with zero touchdowns, and injuries to Isiah Pacheco and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.

Kansas City is 12th in rushing attempts per game with 28.3 up from last year’s 25.6 and 15th in rushing yards per game 116.3. And while they are tied for 16th in plays per game, 60.3, they are 18th in neutral pace. This means don’t expect a fast pace up and down the field type of contest this week, especially since their opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers has the third slowest neutral pace rate.

Last week Steele had a 64% snap rate playing on 77% of the rushing snaps. He finished the game leading the team with 17 carries for 72 yards, the next closest was Samaje Perine with six rushes (same as Mahomes) for 25 yards, hence the call to Hunt.

There is legitimate concern that Hunt will eat into Steele’s production, just not this week.

Prop Bets

  • Over/Under 45.5 rushing yards, (-114)
  • Anytime touchdown +135
  • Over 4.5 receiving yards (-120), Under 4.5 receiving yards (-110)

 

George Pickens, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers travel to Indianapolis where they are a 1.5-point road favorite with an implied game total of 40.5. The Steelers are unsurprisingly 27th in passing attempts per game (25) with quarterback Fields completing a career-high 73% of his passes, but when he does pass the ball, it is mainly to Pickens.

Pickens has a 24% target share, 49.9% air yard share, and a 31.4% first read share. Last week he was targeted seven times, hauling in five receptions for 57 yards, and for the season he has 18 targets, 13 receptions for 171 yards.

While the stats may seem unimpressive remember that the Colts have allowed four touchdowns to wide receivers and perimeter wide receivers have the 11th most PPR points per target against them. Also, the Colts defense runs single-high 57.1% of the time, which is the 10th highest rate in the NFL. Pickens’ yards per route run increases to 2.90 against a single high.

Prop Bets

  • Over/Under 50.5 receiving yards, (-137)
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer +225
  • Over/Under 11.0 fantasy points (-137)

 

Elijah Higgins, Tight End, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals will host the Washington Commanders, with the highest implied total for the week (50.5) and the Cardinals a 3.5-point home favorite.

While Higgins’s status in the Cardinals pecking order drops behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and a presumably healthy Greg Dortch, it isn’t all bleak. Higgins played wide receiver at Stanford and at 6’3” and 235 pounds can hold his own. Last week when he took over for McBride, running seven routes for one reception and 11 yards.

Now he will replace McBride who on the season has seen a 24.4% target share, 21 targets, and 76.7% route participation. It is very unlikely that all that target goodness lands in Higgins’s hands, but with the state of the tight ends lately, just a little bit maybe all he needs, to solidify his sleeper status.

Prop Bets

Check late Saturday or early Sunday for props on Higgins as McBride has been officially ruled out.

If you can now find this prop for Higgins, go for it

  • Over 0.5 touchdowns (+210).

 

As the tight-end landscape is in turmoil, who is your tight end for this week?

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This Article Written By

Gladys Louise Tyler

Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.