Fantasy Football Stock Value
Congratulations! You have persevered through these excruciating months without football. While free agency, the NFL Draft, OTAs, mini-camps, and the opening of training camps helped during the void, what we really want is for Week 1 of the regular season to begin. As that anticipation of true football bliss continues, we have now undergone a welcome shift toward having actual preseason activity from which to shape our analysis. We can now see how various players are being utilized on the field, which should escort us down the path of better decision making during our drafts. This will impact ADPs, as some players will become more coveted, while others will fall out of favor with potential owners. Here are 10 whose ADPS will be altered during that process.
5 Whose ADPs Will Rise
Since their performances during Tennessee’s preseason opener, the collective stock of both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry’s has been ascending. But even though Murray’s 71-yard touchdown burst was prevalent in post-game highlights, Henry was also highly productive during his NFL debut against San Diego, while displaying a blend of elusiveness and power. This prompted a surge in favorable conversation about the 6’3”, 245-pound rookie. As we witnessed in their second preseason encounter with Carolina, Henry will normally combat more resistance than the Charger reserves could provide. Still, he now appears capable of capturing a sizable percentage of touches in Week 1 of the regular season. He is currently being selected 43rd among all backs, with an ADP of 87 in standard leagues, as a growing number of owners are seizing him earlier in their drafts. Murray will remain the starter, and commandeer a significant workload. Although the Heisman Trophy winner should attain a considerable role within the Titan’s attack, which will improve his surging ADP even more.
After averaging 105 YPG in his first four games as a rookie, and 111 YPG during Weeks 6-8, Diggs surpassed 55 yards just once in his final nine contests in 2015. That prolonged stretch of modest production left him largely disregarded in early summer drafts, as owners chose to select him after teammate Laquan Treadwell. However, Viking beat writers have delivered favorable reports since the onset of training camp. Plus, after functioning as Minnesota’s X receiver last season, he has not been affixed to that role. Instead, he has been deployed in both the Z and the slot, and moving Diggs around will benefit him significantly. The 22-year old has performed more impressively than any other Viking receiver since the team reconvened, and should remain so as Treadwell experiences his adjustment to the NFL. Diggs’ ADP of 101 now places him 34 slots ahead of Minnesota’s first-year wideout, and should elevate further as he continues to thrive within his new responsibilities.
Seattle Seahawks[the_ad id=”58837″]The words “Christine Michael will become a reliable, efficient runner, and will capture a consistent role for Seattle” would not been included on anyone’s list of 2016 Bold Predictions. But what he is accomplishing with the Seahawks can no longer be ignored. He has now accrued 99 yards on 17 attempts during the first two games of the preseason, and it appears that Michael will be allotted a legitimate workload. That will propel him toward a new location within the fantasy landscape, that ascends beyond his well-established status as a perpetual underachiever. I am on record as believing that CJ Prosise will eventually have a role with the Seahawks this season. But his hamstring injury, coupled with the delayed unveiling of Thomas Rawls due to his protracted ankle problem, has enabled Michael to capitalize on a cavernous opportunity. Since he has built a resume that contains an excessive amount of disappointment for coaching staffs and fantasy owners alike, many may be hesitant to entrust Michael with a draft pick. Still, his current ADP should begin to rise.
It has become somewhat fashionable for some analysts to bash Latavius Murray, who finished sixth overall with 1,066 rushing yards last season, but also was the recipient of the NFL’s third highest number of carries. However, the belief from here is that Murray can be trusted as a RB2, and will be Oakland’s primary back. Yet, since the Raiders’ offensive line is now among the league’s most proficient, this will not only benefit Murray, but also rookie DeAndre Washington. Who has appeared capable of procuring a consistent role within the offense. It is unlikely that Washington will be entrusted to run between the tackles with any frequency, and won’t unseat Murray as the feature back. However, Jack Del Rio has stated that Washington can be productive if the Raiders can get him in space, and his ability to generate big gains by outmaneuvering defenders should entice more owners. That in turn will lift his current ADP of 122.
The impending ascension of Sharpe’s ADP is going to occur, due to the potential for this fifth round draft pick to soar into Tennessee’s WR1 role. It will not only be the byproduct of that scenario emerging, but will also be the result of so many potential owners being far more enamored with former teammate Dorial Green-Beckham, having familiarity with Kendall Wright, and previously disregarding what Sharpe has been accomplishing this summer. He easily leads the Titans in receptions and yardage during the preseason, after garnering all six of his targets for 68 yards against the Panthers in his second game. Sharpe’s ADP has yet to crack the top 250 in PPR leagues, but that is destined to change immediately. His potential to provide points for your lineups vastly exceeds that of a considerable number of players who are being chosen before him. Many of which have failed to secure a starting role with their own teams. It is my expectation that he will continue to perform like Tennessee’s best receiver. As he does, the magnitude of what he is achieving will gain traction, and he will begin materializing on rosters.
5 Whose ADPs Will Fall
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In 2014, Benjamin garnered the sixth most targets (146) assembled 1,008 yards and scored nine times. Owners have exhibited supreme confidence in his ability to instantly resume that level of production, despite the fact that he is returning from a torn ACL, and has missed an entire year of football. Benjamin is somewhat bravely being drafted in Round 3, with Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Golden Tate, Jeremy Maclin Julian Edelman representing a small sampling from the massive list of receivers you can find being drafted after him. However, Ron Rivera and Panther beat writers have openly discussed Benjamin’s conditioning struggles, and his ability to handle an extensive snap count in Week 1 is in doubt. Meanwhile, it is easy to find favorable reviews of the performances that Devin Funchess has delivered in training camp. While it is highly unlikely that Benjamin will be supplanted as Carolina’s WR1, he will not be ready to supply owners with production that justifies his ADP when the season begins. Plus, he must contend with Funchess and Greg Olsen collecting their share of targets. All of which should induce more owners to apply patience when selecting Benjamin.
The 12-year veteran has consistently been drafted just after the top five signal callers – Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees – and is currently disappearing from draft boards during Round 6. His irrefutable talent, and what had appeared to be a collection of potent options, coerced owners into overlooking the relentless collection of injuries that impacted his availability in 2015, and contributed to his less than stellar 21:16 TD-INT ratio. But the current mid-round investment in Big Ben has become even more questionable as his weapons within the Steeler offense have dwindled. Martavis Bryant’s suspension provided the initial setback, followed by Le’Veon Bell’s suspension, and the unfavorable news concerning Ladarius Green’s health. Which has drained what once appeared to be a formidable offense from much of its potency. While Roethlisberger still has the league’s most prolific receiver at his disposal, and will ultimately reunite with Bell, his current ADP of 64 should fall. As more potential owners re-position him into the seventh and eighth rounds of their drafts.
There was sufficient reason to be apprehensive about selecting Jones at his current ADP of 58 even before his shoulder injury. You may remember how many owners sprinted to view their waiver wires last season after he generated 123 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries in Week 2. After the ensuing efforts to add him, he proceeded to manufacture just 38 yards on 11 attempts the following week and averaged a paltry 31 YPG in his remaining 11 games.
Yet, despite his ineffectiveness while failing even to surpass a 3.5 YPC average in nine of his next ten contests, combined with his propensity to fumble, his status as Washington’s undisputed RB1 had successfully quashed any lingering concerns for many owners. But his AC sprain, coupled with his consistently underwhelming performances, will increase the reluctance of more owners to invest a fourth or fifth round pick on a back who is unlikely to supply many top 10 scoring weeks at his position. Especially when alternatives like Giovani Bernard, Duke Johnson, Jonathan Stewart and Rashad Jennings should be available after that point in your drafts.
Early excitement about the prospects of Green operating within Pittsburgh’s offense has been replaced by escalating uneasiness about his ability to even participate with his new team. Uncertainty about his health is just one factor in Roethlisberger’s likely ADP decline, but it will have a devastating impact on Green’s. While there are conflicting reports regarding the specifics and severity of Green’s injuries, the initial hype surrounding his opportunity to become a TE1 within a dangerous offense finally has been replaced by genuine fears about his basic availability. His tumbling ADP of 137 has dropped him three rounds in the past six days, as he had been departing draft boards before Julius Thomas, Zach Ertz, and former teammate Antonio Gates. As more potential draftees opt to avoid him, his ADP will continue a steady plunge.
The competition between Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman recently was examined here. As comments from the Falcons’ coaching staff appeared to indicate that Coleman will secure a larger role this season, even though Freeman would retain a significant workload. But Coleman has been underwhelming during Atlanta’s initial two preseason contests. Punctuated by the paltry 3.2 YPC that he generated while managing just 16 yards on five carries in Week 2 against Cleveland. The fact that Freeman bolted for 44 yards and a touchdown during his four attempts will only reinforce concerns regarding Coleman’s value as the regular season approaches. This is not a suggestion that Coleman won’t poach a percentage of touches from Freeman. Or that he can’t still generate reasonable production at some point this year. But enough savvy owners who remain observant of his preseason performances, will become less enamored with the concept of selecting Coleman in the ninth round. Which will drive his current ADP of 102 downward.[/wlm_ismember]
Phil is a proud Hoosier, who relocated in Nebraska, and began playing fantasy football nearly 20 years ago. In his first ever draft, he had the third overall pick and selected Barry Sanders. That choice was instantly mocked by several other owners, but Sanders ultimately scored 14 touchdowns and generated 2,358 total yards during an exceptional season. That instantly taught Phil a very important lesson – even though none of us will forecast with 100% accuracy, you should follow your gut instincts whenever you truly believe in a player. Phil began his writing career with RotoWire, later joined Fanball, and has since returned home to the Gridiron Experts. He remains firmly convinced that the key to happiness can be found through a subscription to the Sunday Ticket.