Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 8
It is Week 8. is anyone a sleeper at this point? With all the injuries and the surprise players returning from injury, yes, I am looking at you Puka Nacua, it is wise to be ever-diligent in our player searches.
After diligently scouring the waiver wire for your injury replacements, keep in mind that replacing a Chris Godwin and or Mike Evans is nice but it will also affect the production of Baker Mayfield. There is no such thing as a ‘solo’ acquisition in the NFL, fantasy football is saturated with interchangeable parts that depend on one another.
With that in mind, let’s get to our Week 8 sleeper picks.
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Quarterback Denver Broncos
After a seriously shaky start, Nix is coming around. In his last three weeks, he has completed 63% of his passes with four passing touchdowns. Nix has added nine, 61, and 75 rushing yards in his last three starts and for the season has three rushing touchdowns.
He has hit double-digit fantasy points in five of his seven games and this week he gets another chance with the Broncos hosting the Carolina Panthers. This Panthers team is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game (18.6) to the quarterback position and last week allowed Washington Commanders’ backup quarterback Marcus Mariota to finish the week as QB9 with 19.0 fantasy points.
Nix is going to provide you with a semi-safe floor due to his rushing ability and a relatively high ceiling due to his Week 8 opponent.
Prop Bets
- Passing Yards, 225+ (+145), 175+ (-280)
- Rushing Yards, 40+ (+215), 25+ (-150)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer +135
Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njigba is “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” and it’s time to unravel it. So far this season Smith-Njigba is ninth in targets (7.9/g), first in slot snaps at 79.1%, and first in routes run at 40.9/g. Yet he is 39th in target share (20.4%) and 62nd in target rate at 19.2%.
The Seahawks as a team are first in team passing play percentage at 66.52%, first in pass attempts per game (40) and quarterback Geno Smith is first in passing yards averaging 283.6/g while the team is third in pace of play (2.26). Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba is WR40 in fantasy averaging 10.9 fantasy points per game
The easy out is that the two other receivers on the team, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dominating Smith’s attention. After all, when pressured Metcalf and Lockett have a 72.1% catch rate compared to Smith-Njiba’s 61.3%. But that isn’t enough when Smith is ninth in receptions (5.3/g) and 35th in receiving yards (45.6/g) until you notice that he is 15th in yards after catch averaging 2.9p/tgt.
But then there is also the stat of when Smith is not pressured, Smith-Njigba has an 83.3% catch rate compared to Metcalf and Lockett who have a 39.4%. Smith has been pressured, as the Seahawks have played against the first, second, and third-ranked players in quarterback pressures per pro-football reference. The enigma is in last week’s performance where Smith-Njigba had six targets, three receptions, and nine yards against the 51st-ranked Grady Jarrett who comes in with a whopping nine pressures (in comparison Aidan Hutchinson is credited with 27).
But there is good news ahead, Buffalo has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to the slot receivers, Gregory Rousseau is credited with 18 pressures (eighth ranked), and on the not-great but maybe good for Smith-Njiba landscape, Metcalf is nursing an MCL sprain, that even if it doesn’t keep him out of the game will limit him.
First super happy the injury with Metcalf is not worse (he was carted off after all ) and second this could be the opportunity Smith-Njigba needs to replicate his Week 2 performance (and hopefully add a touchdown or two).
Prop Bets
- Receiving Yards, 60+ (+125), 50+ (-135)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer +180
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Running Back, Denver Broncos
The Panthers rank 32nd in allowing the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.9). In their last three games that average has elevated to 2.3, so they aren’t getting better.
Now it appears that second-year quarterback Bryce Young will start for them, I mention this because that usually means a shorter field for the opposing team, not that Williams necessarily needs it. Last week Williams was on the field for 62.3% of the team’s offensive snaps and 21.4% of his carries went for 10-plus yards. He finished with 88 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards on his way to an RB6 finish in half-PPR leagues.
In three of his last four games, he has collected 80 or more scrimmage yards, and this includes the rain-soaked game against the New York Jets and a 16.1 fantasy finish hosting the Las Vegas Raiders, his only down game in that span was against the Los Angeles Chargers and there is no shame in that.
If anything, it proves that Williams excels against those porous defenses which would include the Panthers who are 24th in opponents yards per rushing attempt (4.7) and opponents rushing touchdowns percentage (46.43%) while also sitting dead last in rushing yards allowed per game (162.1).
It’s a Sean Payton offense so it could start with a running back rotation, but Williams has slowly inched his way into getting his despite Payton’s shenanigans.
Prop Bets
- Rushing Yards, 70+ (+130), 50+ (-235)
- Receiving Yards, 25+ (+140)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer -115
All above player props from DraftKings Sportsbook
Tight End, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers suffered two major losses Monday night, Chris Godwin is gone for the season with a dislocated ankle and Mike Evans is out for the foreseeable future with a lingering hamstring injury. This will most certainly affect Mayfield in a non-positive way while simultaneously making Otton a little more valuable.
Last week after Evans left the game, Otton had 93% route participation and was targeted on 23.1% of the routes finishing the game with 100 receiving yards on 10 targets and eight receptions.
For the season (with Evans and Godwin) Otton’s 31.6 routes run per game is second and his 87% route participation is first. His 17.4% target share is about to increase, and his 21.8% slot snap rate should get a bump without Godwin.
Player Props
- Rushing Yards Over/Under 12.5 (-114)
- Receptions Over 2.5 (-123), Under 2.5 (-111)
- Fantasy Points Over/Under 8.0 (-137)
Props and lines from bettingpros.com
Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 8
It is Week 8 and is anyone really a sleeper at this point? With all the injuries and the surprise players returning from injury, yes, I am looking at you Puka Nacua, it is wise to be ever-diligent in our player searches.
After diligently scouring the waiver wire for your injury replacements, keep in mind that replacing a Chris Godwin and or Mike Evans is nice but it will also affect the production of Baker Mayfield. There is no such thing as a ‘solo’ acquisition in the NFL, fantasy football is saturated with interchangeable parts that depend on one another.
With that in mind, let’s get to our Week 8 sleeper picks.
