Fantasy Football Sleepers
As I sit and watch my Thanksgiving DFS slate circle the toilet (perhaps if I had listened to Mr. Lawrence Iacona…) I ponder the existence of calling a sleeper pick for season-long fantasy after four games and a week with no byes. And then I remember I need to swing for the fences in two leagues to make the playoffs, and there is hope that a sleeper pick will outplay my mediocre “studs,” and then there is also, of course, more DFS (hope forever springs eternal).
So here is a post-Thanksgiving toast to those brave souls who need to swing for the fences or are just looking to spice up what has been a rather dismal two days of fantasy football (oh just me…okay).
Since there are zero teams on a bye (just wait until next week), and you have played at least a portion of your lineup(s) when you are reading this, consider these gentlemen as more of a DFS sleeper option this week. The fantasy football sleeper picks for lucky Week 13…drumroll, please.
Last Week’s Sleepers
- Drake Maye- 22/37, 222 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 26 rushing yards; QB17
- Quentin Johnston– oh so bad- zero stats after two horrendous drops (don’t give up on him though).
- Brian Robinson- left the game with an ankle injury; RB41 monitor both Robinson and Austin Ekeler as both left with injuries, Ekeler had his second recorded concussion for this season.
- Luke Schoonmaker- 4 targets, 3 receptions, 55 yards, 1 touchdown; TE9
Panthers vs Buccaneers, -5.5, (46.6)
Young has emerged from his benching with glimpses of the quarterback that we know he is, bringing his team to a record of 2-1. In Munich Germany, the Carolina Panthers defeated the New York Giants with Young under center. In that matchup, Young went 15/25 for 126 yards and one touchdown while also running for 30 yards.
Fast forward to last week when the Panthers hosted the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs, losing to the Chiefs 27-30. It was Young’s best NFL game in which he finished 12th in yards per attempt, 15th in passer rating (92.9), and 11th in catchable target rate. His final stats for the game were 21/35 for 263 yards one passing touchdown and 20 rushing yards, and in four straight games, Young has tossed at least one touchdown pass.
So, the hype for Young goes in so many ways, one this week he will be playing against the Buccaneers who have the 29th-ranked pass defense and are allowing the third-most fantasy points (22.4) to quarterbacks. Second, in Young’s “best NFL game” he only finished as QB14 in fantasy points. But then again he has the weapons and the expected game environment to finish as a top-10 quarterback this week.
The Buccaneers’ defense is 29th ranked because since Week 7 they have allowed the second-highest success rate per dropback, and the fourth-highest yards per attempt, and quarterbacks (with a glaring exception Tommy Devito) have their highest passer rating against them.
And let’s not forget that the Panthers will be pushed to score as the Buccaneers have the fourth-ranked scoring offense and the Panthers are giving up the league-worst points per game (30.9). With Adam Thielen back and the rookie duo of Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker (check his status still questionable with quadriceps injury) Young’s weapons are valid, his offensive line is holding up and Chubba Hubbard is a beast.
Keeping up with Dave Canales’ ex-team should propel Young into the top-10, and an interesting DFS option.
Prop Bets
- Passing Yards, O/U 200.5 (-115)
- Passing Touchdowns, O 1.5 (+180), U 1.5 (-250)
- Rushing Yards, O 13.5 (-110), U 13.5 (-120)
Chargers -1.0 vs Falcons, (47.5)
I know…I know…I just can’t quit him. Remember what we are playing Johnston for, it isn’t the yards, Ladd McConkey has that avenue, it is for the touchdown upside. This season Johnston has 22 receptions with six of them going for touchdowns (which I believe means 27.27% of his receptions end in points) and that isn’t too bad. The caveat here is of course he has to catch the targets going his way…and therein lies the rub. His dropped passes last week were brutal not only from a fantasy standpoint but were crucial for the Chargers. So maybe this is just a nod to the fact that I think Jim Harbaugh will want to keep Johnston’s confidence up and pepper him with a few passes this week against a defense that isn’t known for its ability to stop wide receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons defense is giving up the fifth most passing touchdowns (21) and of the 39.3 points per game allowed to the receiving position, 74% of those points are going to the outside receiver. Falcons are allowing 8.5% of perimeter targets to score!
Am I trying to rehabilitate my last week’s predictions, perhaps, but maybe I am thinking that since everyone will be off this option, his sleeper potential is high (although I like him more as a DFS option than for your season-long redraft fantasy leagues and more FanDuel than DraftKings)?
Prop Bets
- Anytime Touchdown +250
- Receptions, O2.5 (-185), U 2.5 (+140)
Chargers, -1.0 vs Falcons, (47.5)
The next-man-up mentality is alive and well in LA. J.K. Dobbins is out “for a while”, whatever that means, it surely means he will not be playing Week 13, enter Edwards.
This is a volume play as Edwards will now receive the bulk of carries in an offense that is still 12th in rushing attempts.
The positive spin is Edwards only has 63 rushing attempts, so his legs are fresh while other running backs are coming into the fantasy home stretch battered and bruised. The downside is that he is only averaging 3.3 yards per attempt, which isn’t great but again upside is that he will most certainly have backfield domination, so volume it is.
Upside, before going on their bye, the Falcons were allowing 127.2 rushing yards per game (19th), with Javonte Williams averaging 6.6ypc against them and Rico Dowdle averaging 6.3. The downside neither eclipsed 75 yards because the Falcons 26th ranked passing defense is so porous (allowing 229.9 passing yards per game) that teams just pass against them.
Upside we know Harbaugh likes to run the ball so Edwards should get his. Wow, what a roller coaster of possibilities but having a running back not in a committee is a good thing to have.
Prop Bets (from DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Rushing Yards, 25+ (-500), 50+ (+110)
- Rushing Yards, O/U 45.5 (-115)
- Anytime Touchdown -125
Steelers vs Bengals -3.0, (47.5)
Freiermuth has not been dominating the tight-end discussion this season, but it should start this week. The Steelers have been noticeably touchdown deficient ranking 30th in red zone scoring percentage at 44.7% and presumably, they worked on it during their “mini break”.
https://x.com/CarterCritiques/status/1861493288525508846
All good news as Freiermuth has had three red zone targets in his last three games and now they get to play the Bengals who have allowed a touchdown to the tight end position in three straight games.
Also according to fantasypros.com since Week 10 the Bengals have the 12th highest two-high coverage rate (55.1%) and against two-high coverage Freiermuth is second on the team with a 12.3% target share and third on the team with a 14.7% first read share.
Although AFC North Division games are highly unpredictable, count on Freiermuth elevating his current TE17 status.
Prop Bets
- Receiving Yards, O 24.5 (-114), U 25.5 (-110)
- Receptions, O 2.5 (-114), U 2.5 (-110)
- Anytime Touchdown +260
How did your Thanksgiving go, if you participated in such things?
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