Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 12
Week 12 in the NFL is yet one more Bye-apocalypse with six teams on their bye week and at least three teams (four if you count the New Orleans Saints and Taysom Hill) leaving the fantasy community without viable fantasy assets.
The teams on a bye this week are the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and the New York Jets. This is a week where sleepers are definitely in play especially with the “questionable” designation on quarterback Brock Purdy, running back D’Andre Swift, and tight end George Kittle just to name a few. And now that we are getting down to “must win” for some of our fantasy teams, it is time to buckle up.
Let’s see who we have this week.
Last Week’s Sleepers
- Bo Nix – 307 Yards, 4 TDs ✔️
- Jerry Jeudy – 6 Receptions, 142 yards, 1 TD ✔️
- Jerome Ford – 10 rushing yards, 4 receptions 29 yards
- Brock Wright – 1 catch 5 yards, 1 TD
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Patriots at Dolphins -7.5
Cheat codes in fantasy may fail sometimes but mostly stand the test of time: this year some new cheat codes have emerged like older running backs with new teams dominating and coaching matters. But my favorite stand-by cheat code is that dual-threat quarterbacks still dominate, six of the top ten fantasy quarterbacks so far this season are dual-threat quarterbacks.
Which brings us to our sleeper selection at quarterback this week. Per Pro Football Focus, “Since Week 6 Maye’s 14 first downs and touchdowns scrambles are four more than any other quarterback and his 13 scrambles of 10-plus yards are six more than the next closest player.” In fact, Maye has run for more than 20 yards in all but one game (sure he is at times running for his life because his offensive line sucks…but as long as he remains upright it’s a win for fantasy).
This is not a rematch of Week 5 when the Dolphins won 15-10 because they played without Tua Tagovailoa, and the Patriots played with Jacoby Brissett under center.
This week the Dolphins will have to contend with Maye who is averaging 9.3 yards per carry and (counting his scrambles) has 258 rushing attempts. He is also coming off a week where he completed 30 of 40 passes for two touchdowns and 282 yards.
The Dolphins are coming off a week where they just allowed Gardner Minshew to throw for 282 yards and two touchdowns, the week prior Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards against them.
The Dolphins have the fourth-lowest sack rate and although for the season they are ninth in passing yards allowed (199.0) for their last three matchups they have allowed an average of 252.0 passing yards which would put them 28th.
Two of the last three quarterbacks against the Dolphins have finished in the top 15 (Minshew QB13 and Josh Allen QB7) with the lone outsider being pocket passer Matthew Stafford who finished as QB20.
Prop Bets
- Passing Attempts, O 32.5 (-125), U 32.5 (-121)
- Passing Completions, O 21.5 (-125), U 22.5 (-115)
- Rushing Attempts, O 4.5 (+110), U 4.5 (-140)
Chargers vs Ravens -3.0
In this week’s Monday Night Football spectacular now renamed the Harbaugh Bowl there will be talk of the brothers going against each other and then there will be more talk about the Chargers’ rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey, and rightly so. But let’s not forget about the receiver who leads the Chargers in receiving touchdowns, Johnston.
In their games against AFC North teams (they have played all but the Ravens in the AFC North), Johnston has scored at least one touchdown. In his last three games, he has a touchdown and that pairs nicely with his 9.7% target share in the red zone.
This game has the highest implied total of the week (50.5) with the Ravens a three-point road favorite. But this game has so many storylines that you may become distracted, brother-v-brother, Ravens seeing a chance to climb back on top in the AFC North after the Cleveland Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night, the Chargers holding on to a wild card position (which coincidently is one below the Ravens) and can Lamar Jackson regain his MVP caliber year after their loss to the Steelers.
Don’t get distracted, Johnston is not going to be your PPR savior as he is only averaging 4.6 targets per game and 44.3 yards per game, but he is pretty reliable for touchdowns with a 27.3% touchdown percentage. And playing against a defense that is tied for 29th in passing touchdowns allowed per game (2.0) it feels right.
Prop Bets
- Receiving Yards, O 46.5 (-115), U 49.5 (-115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer, +195
Commanders -10.5 vs Cowboys
Speaking of cheat codes and ‘revenge game’ narratives, Robinson’s Commanders are a double-digit home favorite with Dan Quinn as head coach against a Cowboys defense he knows pretty well feels like a slam dunk.
The only reason Robinson is on this sleeper list is that he enters Week 12 as RB23 in standard leagues and RB28 in PPR formats, which we can agree are way too low.
Dallas enters this week ranked 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (151.0) and 32nd in rushing touchdowns allowed per game, averaging 1.8. In their Monday night game last week, they allowed Joe Mixon to run for 109 yards and score three rushing touchdowns. Mixon averaged 5.5 yards per carry against this defense.
Now there could be the narrative that Quinn’s old defense wants to put on their big boy pants and show their old coach they are fine without him, but I prefer stats over narrative and Robinson over Dallas D.
Prop Bets
- Rushing Attempts, O16.5 (even), U 16.5 (-128)
- Rushing Yards, O 68.5 (-114), U 71.5 (-125)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer, -145
Cowboys at Commanders -10.5
Once again, the tight end comes with an asterisk, if Jake Ferguson does not clear concussion protocol, Schoonmaker is your man. As alluded to above the Cowboys look to be behind most of the game, as has been the case for most of the season. Last week it resulted in quarterback Cooper Rush attempting 55 passes with 32 receptions and 354 yards!
Schoonmaker filling in for Ferguson who got injured early, was second on the team in targets (10), second on the team in receptions (6), and third on the team in receiving yards (56).
The Commanders just allowed the Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Goedert 61 yards on five receptions and the week prior Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers managed to score a touchdown on his 17 receiving yards.
With the six teams on a bye this week, there will be no Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, Mike Gesicki, or Taysom Hill so for the Cowboys who have utilized 12-personnel 25 times so far this season, grab the tight end that is getting the targets.
Prop Bets
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer, +420
Happy Thanksgiving Week, I am thankful for you.
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