Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 12
Week 12 is Thanksgiving week in the NFL and as a tribute, I want to reflect on some of the fantasy football sleepers we should be thankful for in 2018.
Mitchell Trubisky is currently the QB7 with 217 fantasy points through 10 games. At his QB24 ADP, Trubisky went undrafted in many formats with fewer than 12 teams. If you were fortunate to pick him up off the waiver wire, then you sure should be thankful despite the fact he didn’t play against the Lions on Thursday with a shoulder injury.
Currently seated as the RB6 with 188.7 fantasy points through 10 games, if you’re a James Conner owner, then you best be thankful, especially if you weren’t a Le’Veon Bell owner and drafted him on a hunch or for his opportunity. Then hats off to you! With a consensus RB56 ADP, Conner not only exceeded expectations, but you can make the case that he ran Bell out of town. Because of his fantastic play week-in and week-out, the Steelers weren’t at Bell’s mercy. As a result, not only are the Steelers better off as a whole right now — especially in the locker room where it counts — but Conner’s fantasy owners received a season-long treat that won’t fill you up like the post-Thanksgiving dinner pumpkin pie — or cannoli in the Italian house like mine.
Although Tyler Boyd has cooled off of late since A.J. Green has been sidelined with his toe injury, you should still be thankful for your find. Currently slated as the WR15 with 105.9 points in standard scoring formats, Boyd has more than transcended what little expectations we had for him entering the 2018 fantasy football campaign. At his WR118 ADP, Boyd went undrafted in most fantasy formats which means he was not only a sleeper, but he could also end up as the top waiver wire add of the year.
Austin Hooper always had the talent, the offense and the quarterback in his favor to be a successful NFL tight end. However, from a fantasy football perspective, Hooper hasn’t always returned significant fantasy value. Until this season that is. With a TE21 ADP, Hooper was hardly a blip on the radar in fantasy leagues with fewer than 12 teams this preseason. 64.5 fantasy points and a TE8 ranking later, Hooper is emerging as one of the most reliable fantasy tight ends in the league this season. If you were fortunate enough to snag Hooper late in your draft or from the waiver wire, then you should be thanking your lucky stars right now.
In honor of the movie “Twins” when Danny DeVito says “through the lips and over the gums, watch out stomach here it comes” in the nuking food in the microwave scene, I give you this gem — out of my brain and through your screen, here are my Week 12 sleepers to help you win your league.
Most-Productive Players from Week 11
While the top 15 overall fantasy football scoring leaderboard was dominated by some of the most notable names in the NFL last week, there were quite a few sleepers in the mix as well. Tre’Quan Smith (42.4) and D.J. Moore (39.3) are both being started in fewer than 50 percent of ESPN Fantasy leagues this week and finished amongst the top 15 most productive players for Week 11. For the purpose of this article, any player with less than a 50 percent start-percentage at ESPN Fantasy will meet the criteria of eligibility to qualify as a sleeper despite their notoriety.
Sleepers Week 11: Full-Disclosure
|Player||Pos||STD Rank||STD Points||PPR Rank||PPR Points|
Week 12 Full-Disclosure: By the Numbers
My Week 11 Sleepers weren’t great, but they weren’t terrible either. Satisfied with never being satisfied, I’m hoping for a better output in Week 12.
- Dak Prescott had the matchup, but it was Ezekiel Elliott who stole the show. While Prescott didn’t have his best game — he missed a couple of wide open deep balls that could have gone for big gains or scores — he still managed to finish as a top 16 quarterback despite only totaling 14.8 points. While he didn’t throw for a touchdown, his day was saved by his fourth rushing touchdown of the season and fourth in five games. While Prescott didn’t have a big game, you could have done a lot worse — Deshaun Watson (9.0), Ryan Fitzpatrick (8.1) and Carson Wentz (0.1) are all notable names and all finished with single-digit points. Woof.
- While Eli Manning failed to score 20 fantasy points, he still managed to finish as a back-end QB1 with his 17.1 total. As shown above, Manning finished as the QB11. Manning has played better in his past four games and has a favorable matchup this week against a skeleton-crew Eagles secondary.
- While Derrick Henry was a flop, game-script ultimately hindered his production. Rushing for 46 yards on nine carries, Henry averaged 5.1 YPC and has averaged at least 4.5 YPC in each of his past three games. I had the call right but didn’t see the Titans getting blown out. They’ve played well enough lately to keep up with Andrew Luck and the red-hot Colts offense. I’ll sink with a ship getting me 5.1 YPC. I’m sorry but I will stand by my call.
- Peyton Barber was an absolute stud. He had his first game of the season in which he rushed for 100 yards and a TD. Previously, he had scored a touchdown but failed rush for more than 85 yards in a single game. HIs 106-yard Week 11 outing versus the Giants was only his second career 100-yard game.
- While Doug Martin rushed 10 times for 52 yards (5.2 YPC) in the first half — he also caught a pass for six yards — he was benched in the second half due to an ankle injury. Finishing as the RB26 with 5.8 points, Martin was on track for an RB2 finish.
- Jalen Richard continues to perform as a quality PPR back. While he finished as the RB20 with 9.3 fantasy points in standard, he finished as the RB21 with 13.3 points in PPR on 93 total yards and 14 touches. His 14 touches matched a season-high total from Week 1.
- I was totally off on John Brown. He was already one of the most volatile wideouts in the fantasy landscape. And now with Lamar Jackson under center, Brown’s upside is even that much more capped.
- I was spot on with Willie Snead. While he didn’t finish with the greatest ranking, he didn’t finish with double-digit fantasy points. If you started him in the WR3 or Flex spot in a PPR league, you could have done worse. SIt seems like no matter who is under center for Baltimore, Snead will see his seemingly weekly 5/5/0 stat line. Snead has caught at least five passes for 51 yards in 7-of-10 games this season.
- While Anthony Miller only caught 2-of-3 targets for 25 yards, one of his two receptions went for a red zone touchdown, which saved the day for his fantasy owners in a tough matchup against the Vikings. Miller has now caught three TDs in his past four games.
- While I yet again missed on Ricky Seals-Jones — I’m done with this guy — Vance McDonald finished as the TE7 with 8.7 fantasy points in standard scoring formats and as the TE9 with 11.7 points in PPR on a 3/27/1 stat line. McDonald caught his second touchdown in as many games in Week 11.
The following is a recap of the players from my Week 11 Fantasy Football Sleepers article. You can read that here.
Entering Week 12, some fantasy owners may be forced to shop the waiver wire due bye weeks and a handful of notable injuries from around the league. With players that include O.J. Howard, Alex Smith, and Marcus Mariota all succumbing to injuries last week, some more significant than the others, be sure to check out Andrew Erickson’s Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 12 to help you fill the vacant holes on your fantasy rosters. You can read that here.
Week 12 QB Fantasy Sleepers
ESPN Start-Percentage: 37.6%
Despite the volatility amongst Buccaneers quarterbacks, Jameis Winston is a must-start for Week 12. And While he may not be viewed a sleeper to some, he is only being started in 37.6 percent of leagues at ESPN and being rostered in 53.2 percent of them.
And although Ryan Fitzpatrick very much remains in the mix, which complicates things even more, he has regressed in the second half of the season. Fitzpatrick has thrown six touchdown and seven interceptions in his past four games including back-to-back games without a score. And despite throwing for 406 yards in Week 10, he has thrown for fewer than 243 yards in three of his past four games since Week 8. It is almost safe to say Winston will be the starter moving forward.
While he qualifies as a sleeper from a start-percentage standpoint, Winston also meets the criteria because of his low-ownership-percentage. Winston’s low ownership-percentage suggests that he is difficult to trust for fantasy owners, which I totally understand. Although we don’t know if he will play in a quarter, a half or a complete game, Winston’s upside is simply too great to ignore. It is that time of the year in which fantasy teams might need a miracle to get into the playoffs. Winston gives you just that.
In his upcoming matchup with the 49ers, Winston will face a defense surrendering the 11th-most fantasy points to rivaling QBs at a 19.4 FPPG pace. And while they have improved since earlier in the year in which they were torched by everyone under the sun, the San Francisco defense is coming off a game in which they allowed Eli Manning to drop 19.5 fantasy points on them on a 188/3/0 QB stat line.
Despite throwing a ton of picks, Winston has a similar talent pool around him to Manning’s minus the running back, which spells trouble for a 49ers defense that struggles to contain the top skill-position players while playing better against the less-gifted ones. Winston holds middling QB1 upside if he plays a full game in Week 12. If you need a win to make it to the dance and Winston is lingering on the wire, don’t hesitate and pick him up right now!
ESPN Start-Percentage: 16.2%
Entering the Browns Week 11 bye, Baker Mayfield was playing his best football of the season. In fact, not only has Mayfield scored at least 17.9 fantasy points in three of the past four games, but he is also the QB10 with 75.5 fantasy points in that same time period since Week 7, which includes last week’s bye. From Weeks 7 and on, Mayfield has thrown for 908 yards and nine touches while tossing at least two scores in each game.
In his upcoming matchup against the Bengals, Mayfield should continue on his road of success. The fourth-easiest matchup for opposing QBs allowing 23.2 FPPG, the Cincinnati defense has surrendered 50.7 percent more fantasy points to enemy QBs than the 17.6-point league average in the past five games.
Facing a dreadful Bengals defense that can’t contain anyone and coming off of a game in which they let Lamar Jackson drop 267 total yards (117 rushing) on them while completing 68.4 percent of his passes (13-of-19) in his first career start, the versatile Mayfield commands fringe QB1 upside for Week 12.
Week 12 RB Fantasy Sleepers
ESPN Start-Percentage: 38.7%
I absolutely positively LOVE Josh Adams this week in his upcoming matchup against the Giants. Not only is Adams coming off of a game in which he accumulated a career-high 72 yards and a touchdown on 13 touches, but he has also averaged at least 6.7 YPC in each of his past three games on a minimum of seven attempts. And while he is only drawing a 22.9 percent snap share, he has easily out-produced Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement in the past two games. Adams is separating himself as the RB-to-own in Philly.
About that matchup with the Giants. Oh yes. I love it. Since dealing away Damon “Snacks” Harrison at the trade deadline, the Giants have been gashed on the ground by opposing ball-carriers. In fact, while the Giants are the 10th easiest opponent’s to face or an enemy back giving up 21.1 FPPG, they’ve surrendered at least 17 fantasy points to the challenger’s RB1 in three straight games since Week 8, the first game following the Harrison trade. In that timespan, the Giants defense has allowed Adrian Peterson, Matt Breida and Peyton Barber to total at least 110 yards and a touchdown against them. I expect Adams to make it four in a row en route to his breakout game.
While Adams has only managed 10 touches once this season, the Eagles must feed him the ball if they hope to turn their lost season around. Their offense thrives on balance, especially if they want the pass to open up for Carson Wentz. During their two-game losing streak, their running game has been anemic, which is making Wentz take on too much with an aging and beat-up offensive line in front of him. Facing a Giants defense that has allowed a rival RB to rush for at least 43 yards and a score in every game this season, Adams is a safe play in the Flex spot with scoring upside for Week 12.
ESPN Start-Percentage: 32.5%
In two games under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, Duke Johnson has been piping hot. Corralling all 13 of his targets for 129 yards and three touchdowns, Johnson has finished as a top 20 fantasy RB in back-to-back weeks (Week 9, RB5/ Week 10, RB19) in PPR scoring formats. Moreover, he is the RB15 with 44.2 PPR points since Week 9 including Johnson’s Week 11 bye. It looks like Kitchens had the perfect recipe to exploit Johnson’s skill set — see what I did there?
While Johnson got over on a pair of favorable matchups in the past two games, he will look to make it three straight in his upcoming plus encounter with an inferior Bengals defense. Surrendering the most fantasy points to rival rushers at a rate of 26.5 FPPG, the Cincinnati defense yield enough production for both Nick Chubb and Johnson to eat. Thus, I am not worried about a crowded backfield. I’m fully confident Johnson will once again cash in for in my column. This will be the third straight article I’m rolling the dice on Johnson in. My Week 9 and Week 10 Sleepers were the others. If you don’t believe me, the proof is in the archive.
Facing a Bengals defense conceding at least 12.8 PPR points to the opposition’s top scoring running back in every game this season and 59.8 percent more points than the 25.9-point league average in the past three games, Johnson is in line to produce his third-consecutive fantasy outing. The RB3 in yards per touch (7.3), Johnson holds fringe RB2 upside in PPR scoring formats for Week 12. Johnson just might be my matchup play of the week.
ESPN Start-Percentage: 22.3%
I’m not going to lie, I am hesitant to trust Gus Edwards in my sleepers column, but with Alex Collins sitting out of practice with a foot injury, I am feeling more comfortable about the no-name rookie. And I get that Collins and Buck Allen have been underwhelming this season, averaging only 3.6 and 2.7 YPC respectively, but their presence is still notable, especially in short-yardage and goal-to-go situations.
Moreover, we don’t even know what the hell Ty Montgomery’s role is on the team or why the Ravens traded for him. And if that’s not bad enough, Ravens HC John Harbaugh told the press that the team has ” four different guys [RBs] who have different styles,” suggesting that Baltimore will roll with a hot-hand approach.
However, Harbaugh also told the press that he feels like Edwards “took the bull by the horns” last week with his 17/115/1 performance, touting the UDFA’s punishing rushing style as “something we [the team] probably didn’t have earlier in the year.” Reading in between the lines, Edwards should get the bulk of the Ravens running back opportunities for the second-straight week, especially if Collins sits with his foot.
If Edwards does, in fact, receive the opportunity for the second consecutive game, I believe he will exploit a Raiders defense yielding the sixth-most fantasy points to enemy RBs at a 24.0 FPPG rate. Not only are the Raiders surrendering 25.3 percent more fantasy points to RBs than the 20.5 league average in the past five games, but they’ve also allowed the opponent’s top scoring RB to total 86 yards and score in four of the past five games including in four straight since Week 8. An opportunity-dependent option amidst a crowded backfield, Edwards is a promising Flex option with RB2 upside if he gets the touches for Week 12.
Week 12 WR Fantasy Sleepers
ESPN Start-Percentage: 21.9%
D.J. Moore has had an inconsistent rookie season to date. However, coming off of a Week 11 outing in which he put up career-highs in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and yards (157) — adding a score to his massive totals — in a tough matchup with the Lions, I expect the year-one wideout to build off of his breakout performance. Finishing last week tied with Tre’Quan Smith as the WR3 with 21.7 fantasy points, Moore is beginning to separate himself as the go-to receiver on the Panthers.
In spite of the presence of Devin Funchess, it wouldn’t surprise me if More was the Panthers’ ROS WR1. Not only has Funchess been underwhelming of late — Funchess has caught fewer than four passes for 44 yards in four straight games, but he has also failed to catch a touchdown in that timespan. And it’s not like he isn’t drawing targets. Funchess is coming off of a Week 11 outing in which he was targeted eight times but only returned a 2/39/0 stat line on his opportunities. Aside of Curtis Samuel, who is more of a gadget wideout similar to Albert Wilson, Moore is the clear-cut big-play threat for Carolina at the wide receiver position.
And I fully understand that Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey are heavily involved in the passing game, which limits wide receiver targets, but they are not wideouts. With teams like the Rams, Chiefs and Saints putting up points at the drop of a dime, Panthers WRs must step up.
In his upcoming matchup facing a Seahawks defense ranked in the middle of the pack in fantasy production allowed to opposing wideouts — the Seahawks are surrendering the 16th most fantasy points to enemy WRs at 24.6 FPPG pace — I expect Moore to string together his second-consecutive notable fantasy outing. Moore has yet to produce back-to-back games with double-digit fantasy points.
While the Seahawks opened the season extremely stingy versus the opposing wideout, they’ve given up at least 15.2 fantasy points to the opposition’s leading receiver in each of the past four games since their Week 7 bye. Moreover, the Seattle secondary is also yielding at least four receptions for 50 yards or a TD to the opposing WR2 in that same four-week timespan. While he is extremely high-risk/ high-reward, Moore is slated to draw a WR/ CB matchup with No. 100 ranked cornerback Tre Flowers, which makes for a fully exploitable matchup inside the matchup. Moore is an upside Flex option better suited for standard scoring formats in Week 12.
ESPN Start-Percentage: 5.3%
Marquise Goodwin is one of the most volatile fantasy options at wide receiver, but in his upcoming matchup with the Buccaneers, I expect the former Olympic speedster to go boom. While in three of his past five games, Goodwin has quietly scored at least 10.9 fantasy points in PPR scoring formats — he’s caught at least four targets for 69 yards or scored a TD in those matchups — that isn’t the reason why I am high on him this week. Goodwin is purely an upside matchup play for Week 12.
Surrendering 28.2 FPG to enemy wideouts, the Buccaneers are the third easiest matchup for fantasy WRs in 2018. In fact, the Buccaneers have been so horrendous against the pass that they have given up at least 14.2 fantasy points to opposing WR1s in 8-of-10 games this season. Moreover, the pair of top-scoring wideouts they held to fewer than 14.2 points, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Josh Doctson, still managed to score in the double-digits. Smith-Schuster accumulated 11.6 points in Week 3 and Doctson scored 10.6 points in Week 10.
Facing a Tampa Bay secondary that has surrendered at least nine receptions for 116 yards or a TD to 17 different wide receivers this season, the stars are aligned for Goodwin to return his most-productive fantasy outing since dropping a 4/126/2 stat line on the Packers back in Week 6, which was good for 29.1 fantasy points. Expecting to draw Brent Grimes, who is the 121st ranked cornerback, in coverage, Goodwin is a quality Flex option with legit fringe WR2 upside for Week 12.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport is reporting Marquise Goodwin is doubtful to play in Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers due to personal reasons. Apparently, Goodwin was excused from the team to address the undisclosed matter.
ESPN Start-Percentage: 12.4%
With Goodwin all but ruled out, fantasy owners who were counting on him to play are left fumbling through their bench or waivers for a suitable replacement. If Buccaneers WR Adam Humphries is available, I’d pivot to him in a game that is primed to be a shootout due to the lack of defense that is played on either side between San Francisco and Tampa Bay.
Accumulating at least 14.6 PPR points in three of his past four games, Humphries is a terrific pivot option despite playing on a team with a plethora of pass-catching options. In the aforementioned four-game timespan, Humphries caught 20-of-26 targets for 297 yards and three scores.
Facing a 49ers defense surrendering the 11th-most fantasy points to enemy WRs at a 25.5 FPPG rate — they’ve allowed eight different wideouts to either score or accumulate a 5/78/0 stat line in the past five games since Week 6 — Humphries is a target-needy Flex option who is a better fit for PPR scoring formats in Week 12. While Humphries is expected to draw a tough WR/ CB matchup with K’Waun Williams, the 46th ranked corner, he has a safe enough floor not to get burned. With O.J. Howard out, targets over the middle are Humphries’ to glom.
ESPN Start-Percentage: 9.8%
Although the Texans made a move for Demaryius Thomas at the trade deadline, the veteran wideout has been extremely quiet in the wake of the deal. In fact, in two games with the club, Thomas has accumulated a bust 3/61/0 stat line on four targets in two games. In fact, all of his catches (three) and yards (61) came in Week 9 against Denver. He was held catch-less on a single target in last week’s win over Washington.
While Thomas was non-existent in Week 11, Keke Coutee was outstanding in his first game back from a lingering hamstring injury. In spite of Thomas’ presence, plus, some guy named DeAndre Hopkins, Coutee led the Texans in receiving on a 5/77/0 stat line and a team-best nine targets.
Finishing Week 11 with 12.7 PPR points, I expect Coutee to replicate or better last week’s performance in a forgiving matchup with a Titans defense that is struggling to contain the pass. Allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to WRs at a 26.8 FPPG rate, the Tennessee secondary has yielded at least four receptions for 81 yards or a touchdown to nine different wideouts in the past five games. In that same five-game time period since Week 7, the Titans are allowing 33.8 percent more fantasy points to WRs than the 34.9-point league average.
Finishing with at least 12.7 PPR points in 3-of-5 games played this season, Coutee is a target-needy Flex option best-suited for PPR scoring formats in Week 12. Expecting to draw the 119th ranked corner Malcolm Butler in coverage this week, it wouldn’t surprise me if Coutee went bonkers. Butler has surrendered 52 receptions for 717 yards and seven touchdowns to wideouts this season. All three marks are amongst the league’s worst. Good luck with that one guy.
Week 12 TE Fantasy Sleepers
ESPN Start-Percentage: 28.7%
I rode the hot and of Vance McDonald last week and he failed to disappoint. While he only caught half of his targets (3-of-3) for 27 yards, one of them went for another red zone touchdown, marking him as the TE7 with8.7 fantasy points. McDonald, whose now found the end zone in back-to-back games, will look to maintain his two-game scoring streak in a promising Sunday matchup in Denver.
The TE3 in YAC (254), McDonald will get a Broncos defense surrendering the eighth most fantasy points to TEs at 9.4 FPPG clip. Moreover, the exploitable Denver defense had also allowed ancient Chargers TE Antonio Gates to drop a 5/80/1 stat line on them last week and a combined 15/206/3 line to TEs in their past three games. Denver has now surrendered a touchdown to a rivaling tight end in each of the past three games. Drawing six targets in two of his past three games including back-to-back outings with successful end zone looks, McDonald is an opportunity-dependent TE1 with scoring upside for Week 12.
ESPN Start-Percentage: 25.3%
With O.J. Howard healthy and breaking out in 2018, Cameron Brate was nowhere to be found amongst a crowded corps of Buccaneers pass-catchers. In fact, not only has Brate failed to score a TD since Week 6, but he has also caught fewer than three passes for 23 yards in that same five-game time period. If that isn’t bad enough, Brate hasn’t topped four targets in a game yet this season. His four targets back in Week 7 was a feat he only reached once in 10 games.
However, all of that will change moving forward in the wake of Howard’s season-ending ankle and foot injuries suffered in last week’s loss to the Giants. With Howard on the injured reserve list and out of the lineup, it is Brate’s time to shine. While Brate is on track for his worst season since 2015, he now has the opportunity to change his fortunes and get back on track.
Not only does the Buccaneers’ offense heavily feature the tight end in their high-octane passing-attack — Brate and Howard have accounted for a combined 60/724/8 stat line on 74 targets in 10 games this season — but we have seen Brate perform at a high level in the past. Brate caught at least 48 targets for 591 yards and six TDs in back-to-back seasons entering 2018.
With Jameis Winston back under center AGAIN for the Buccaneers — two of Brate’s three TDs this season have come from the arm of Winston. Plus, the fact that he is entering an exploitable matchup with a 49ers defense surrendering the 19th most fantasy points to rival TEs at a 7.0 FPPG pace in 2018, Brate is in line for his most productive outing of the year on Sunday.
While the 49ers have defended the tight end better of late, they have surrendered at least five receptions for 104 yards or a TD to six different TEs through 10 games this season. As a result, Brate is a fringe TE1 with scoring upside for Week 12. If he happens to be on waivers — Brate is available in 56.5 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues — don’t hesitate and pick him up right now. Brate could be league-winner for those counting on Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, who have both underperformed thus far in 2018.
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Thank you for reading my Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleepers for 2018.
If you’ve enjoyed it, I will be writing this feature on a weekly basis for the duration of the 2018 season right here at Gridiron Experts! Want more of my content? Follow me on Twitter @therealnflguru and check out my @GridironExperts archive here. And before I forget, Mike Hauff and I debate fantasy football as well as other NFL news notes and nuggets on our show @Faceoff. You can follow us on Twitter, hear us on the Gridiron Experts Podcast Network, or watch us on Youtube. We are also available at most of the top podcast providers, including iTunes here.
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