Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 10
It is Week 10 in the NFL and fantasy football is getting beyond the sleepers part and heading straight into sweet dreams or the nightmare portion of your season depending on how well you negotiate the mountains of bodies that keep piling up. In addition to the injuries this week there are four teams on a bye, the Cleveland Browns, the Green Bay Packers, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Seattle Seahawks. Unlike some weeks in this week there are major players on their bye week.
Week 10 is also the week of some pretty pivotal matchups and some pretty interesting storylines. The New Orleans Saints have an interim head coach after firing Dennis Allen, the Carolina Panthers are participating in their brand of fire sale and superstar Christian McCaffrey is rumored to be returning to the field this week.
So, let’s see what any of this means for our sleeper candidates this week. All props are from bettingpros.com unless otherwise noted.
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Darnold has a reliable tackle to replace Christian Darrisaw, T.J. Hockenson is back, and the Jaguars have not only allowed the second most passing plays of 20+ yards but they are also 31st in passing yards allowed per game (264.3).
Darnold for the season has 17 touchdowns to seven interceptions and is rocking an average of 237.5 passing yards per game and has 31 rushing attempts for 120 yards.
In Week 7, rookie Drake Maye threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars, Malik Willis, and Jordan Love combined for 252 yards against them, and last week Jalen Hurts went for 230 yards and two touchdowns against them.
The only caveat here is that there is a chance Trevor Lawrence will miss this game with a shoulder injury leaving Mac Jones under center. No disrespect to Jones but this may lower the need for the Vikings to be pushed offensively, lowering Darnold’s ceiling…but Aaron Jones looks good no matter who is under center.
Prop Bets
- Passing Yards, O 245.5 (-115) U 249.5 (-125)
- Passing Completions O 20.5 (-114) U 20.5 (even)
- Passing Touchdowns O 1.5 (-138) U 1.5 (+120)
Dallas Cowboys v Philadelphia Eagles
This isn’t the rosy optimistic sleeper that we all wish for, but here we are. First, this isn’t a chase of the points from Dowdle’s performance last week where he finished with 107 total yards (75 rushing and 32 receiving) with one receiving touchdown, that performance was against the Atlanta Falcons. This week’s opponent is a whole different animal as the Cowboys will host division enemy the Philadelphia Eagles as a 7.5-point home underdog.
The Eagles have stepped up their game and since Week 5 have limited opposing run games to 83 yards per game and allowed only one rushing touchdown and that was to Cincinnati Bengals’ Chase Brown (quarterback Trevor Lawrence did run for two touchdowns against them).
And then there is NFL’s analyst Adam Rank who has Dowdle as his RB50 this week. That’s fair as the Cowboys are ranked 32nd in rushing attempts (21.6) and 31st in rushing yards per game (82). Oh, and did I mention that Cooper Rush will be under center as Dak Prescott will be out “an extended amount of time with a hamstring injury” and oh yeah, Cee Dee Lamb has an AC joint sprain but intends to play Sunday.
It feels bleak right, but here is where the sorta good news comes in, Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore knows Rush. He understands that Rush will not be afraid to throw the ball and that will (hopefully) allow for the Eagles to not rely on stacking the box. Also, Dowdle tied with Jalen Tolbert for the third most targets last week.
Playing Dowdle will be a numbers game, relying on total touches and a touchdown to make him fantasy-relevant. It isn’t a sure thing but it is a possible thing.
Prop Bets
- Rushing Attempts, O 12.5 (-102) U12.5 (-128)
- Rushing Yards, O 42.5 (-110) U 42.5 (-114)
- Anytime Touchdown +175
Washington Commanders v Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ defense is formidable, but they have been had by the opposing team’s WR2. Before last week’s bye, Darius Slayton had 108 receiving yards on four receptions. And against the New York Jets while keeping Garrett Wilson under 65 receiving yards, Breece Hall tied for most targets acting as a defacto WR2 and collected 103 receiving yards against them while Jalen Tolbert went for 87 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 5.
Terry McLaurin is WR1 in Washington and should see the bulk of Joey Porter Jr. Brown had six targets (team-leading) last week, six targets (third on the team) Week 8, and one target in Week 7. To be fair the one target game was the crushing 40-7 beatdown of the Carolina Panthers and Marcus Mariota was the quarterback. Mariota attempted only 23 passes in that game.
In the last two weeks, Brown has a combined eight receptions, 133 yards, and a touchdown.
Prop Bets
- Anytime Touchdowns +300
- Score a First Half Touchdown +650
- Score a Second Half Touchdown +600
Dowdle and Brown’s props from Covers.com
New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons
Here is yet another player who is better by subtraction, but Hill holds a bit more optimism than Dowdle. The Saints are reeling, they have fired their head coach, special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi is the interim head coach, and wide receiver Chris Olave is out.
Realistically that leaves *checks her Saints depth chart* the reliable options of Alvin Kamara, Hill, Jordan Mims, and if you want to get squirrely the other two tight ends Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau.
Of the five options only Hill has attempted a pass, was second (by a very LARGE margin) in rushing yards, and was second (by a slightly more sustainable margin) in receiving yards last week. Even with Olave on the field in Week 8, Hill managed to show up both in the rushing and receiving stats.
In fantasy football, it is all about opportunity and Hill brings that in spades.
Prop Bets
- Anytime Touchdown +195
- First Touchdown Scorer +1100
Don’t forget to set your lineups accordingly as this week there is the early International game with the New York Giants -6.5 v Carolina Panthers, 40.5 o/u.
