Holy Hell you don’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to realize this Watson’s play is elementary…no less than that, he is fantasy football’s Professor James Moriarty (or Jamie if you were fortunate enough to catch the Elementary television series). And now head coach Kevin Stefanski has stated that there will not be a quarterback change in Cleveland
“Kevin Stefanski has proven to be a great coach as long as Deshaun Watson is not his quarterback — and yet we’re not going to make a QB change? Why? Because they have made the decision that we need to prove ourselves right.” @EvCoRadio pic.twitter.com/Hiu7rXORT2
— UNSPORTSMANLIKE Radio (@UnSportsESPN) October 7, 2024
and that means fellow fantasy football aficionados we will officially sleep on Watson until proven otherwise (and as we say our daily prayers for a Jameis Winston full game).
Moving on we are in Week 6 and there are four teams once again on a bye week, with realistically only two of them with fantasy relevance. The teams on a bye this week are the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, and the Miami Dolphins, so adjust accordingly.
Nico Collins is on IR while De’Von Achane went out with a concussion. With the Dolphins on a bye week, it is worth monitoring (we know about the Dolphins and concussions) and maybe keeping an eye on the Josh Allen situation, it appeared he hit his head but was allowed back into the game with it being called a ‘chest injury’.
Let’s get on to Week 6 sleeper picks.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
It may take a moment to wrap your head around it, but Jones is a viable fantasy option. Last week Jones finished as QB11 with 22.1 fantasy points, and for the season he sits as QB14 averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game. And before you go and ridicule that, know that QB14 is ahead of Patrick Mahomes (QB15), Aaron Rodgers (QB18), and Jalen Hurts (QB20) just to name a few.
This week Jones has a chance to jump even further up the quarterback fantasy rankings as the Giants host the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have given up the fifth most fantasy points to the quarterback position (22.6) while allowing quarterbacks to average 218.8 passing yards per game. And to raise Jones’ floor, the Bengals have allowed quarterbacks to rush for 169 yards (the second most) and a touchdown.
Jones is averaging 21.6 rushing yards per game on 34 rushing attempts and in five games Jones has the fourth most passing attempts (178) is completing 64% of his passes and has thrown for six touchdowns against three interceptions. He has also scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games.
Prop Bets
This is a Sunday Night Football game and finding props for Jones (except for anytime touchdown and first touchdown are squirrelly). Check back Sunday day for Jones’ prop bets.
Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys
Brandin Cooks is out indefinitely moving Tolbert up the food chain and making him the third option behind Cee Dee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, being the third option on a team that passes the ball on 63.98% of their offensive plays (fourth most), and runs the ninth most plays per game (64.4) isn’t a bad place to be.
Tolbert led the team last week in targets with 10 with three in the red zone and his quarterback, Dak Prescott having 42 pass attempts. Tolbert finished the game leading in receptions (7), receiving yards (88), and touchdowns (1). His 86.4% route rate was his highest for the season, but his season 15.4% target share and 17.9% target rate indicate his status on a team where Lamb commands a 21.8% target share and 22.9 % target rate and tight end Ferguson has a 20.4% target share and 27.8% target rate.
The upside for Tolbert is that this week the Cowboys host the Detroit Lions whose defense is giving up the sixth most passing yards per game (258.3) and teams pass the third most (39.5) against them.
Prop Bets
- Receptions, Over 3.5 (-145), Under 3.5 (+112)
- Receiving Yards Over/Under 45.5 (-137)
- Fantasy Points Over/Under 9.5 (-137)
Dare Ogunbowale, Houston Texans
It is unusual for this analyst to suggest two sleepers from the same team, but these are indeed unusual times. The Texans travel to New England to face the Patriots. The Texans are a 6.5-point road favorite and the over/under is a disappointing 37.5.
The Texans will likely be without Joe Mixon and perhaps Tank Dell and we know that Nico Collins is on IR.
The Case for Ogunbowale
This is, of course, predicated on Mixon not playing. Last week, Ogunbowale led the Texans’ backfield (Cam Akers) in snap rate 68.7%, route rate 59.5%, carries 15, and scrimmage yards 87. Akers had a higher rushing average of 4.7, and while both had red zone carries, Akers found the end zone, while Ogunbowale did not.
In the passing game, Ogunbowale lapped Akers, with Ogunbowale targeting seven times to Akers three.
In the passing game, Ogunbowale finished with six receptions for 57 yards while Akers finished with two receptions for five yards.
The Patriots’ defense is meh against the rush, ranking 13th and allowing an average of 118.0 rushing yards per game. But they have also given up 168 receiving yards to the running back position, which is where Ogunbowale has eclipsed Akers and brings us to the tight end position.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
The acquisition of Stefon Diggs has eaten into Schultz’s targets. While he is averaging more routes run (31.8 this year to 26.7 last season) his target share has dropped from 17.5% to 12.1%. Diggs is occupying the middle space that Schultz commanded last year.
With the injury to Collins, Diggs may move to the outside leaving the middle open for Schultz. This implies a target increase for both Schultz and Ogunbowale.
The Patriots blitz at the 10th highest rate (31.7%) and quarterback C.J. Stroud averages 3.02 seconds to throw the ball. It looks like the perfect scenario for the dump-off which is perfect for a team that has the fourth-most receiving yards after catch (739) and the sixth-most receiving yards after contact (280).
Look for Patriots’ Christian Gonzalez to attempt to keep Diggs in check leaving offensive goodness open for Ogunbowale, Schultz, and Dell (if he plays).
Prop Bets
These odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook
- Dalton Schultz, Receptions Over 3.5 (+120) Under 3.5 (-155)
- Dalton Schultz, Receiving yards Over/Under 32.5 (-115)
- Dare Ogunbowale, Anytime Touchdown +550
- Cam Akers, Anytime Touchdown +165
Is this game the best time to start New England Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, ownership decision or coaches decision?
