Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 8

Jerick McKinnon

Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 8

Dear 2020, please put down the voodoo doll we have all suffered enough already! Apparently, crossing our fingers and hoping for no more injuries was ineffective as there was another string of injuries across the NFL this week. Running backs were hit especially hard with seven notable injuries and many of them will result in multiple weeks missed. But, that is why this information is so important to have! It will help you be able to adjust to the injury bug and hopefully continue making your way to fantasy greatness!

Before we jump into the numbers a quick note about the data: The data that I use is populated by the Snap Counts page from FantasyData.com. I then take this raw data and calculate not just whether an RB was on the field but if they were being used and what percentage of the offense did their usage make up. Looking back at the entire season of 2019 (you can find old RBBC Reviews on my profile page), the two stats that I include and lean on heavily, % of Offense and Plays Used, were more correlated with season-long PPR points than Snaps and Snap %. For example, 93% of end of year fantasy points can be explained by the number of plays that a player is used – the more plays a player is actually used on results in more fantasy points. So, if a player is being used on a lot of plays but isn’t producing fantasy points yet, there is a likelihood that he will regress to the mean in the future and produce more fantasy points.

Season-Long Workhorses

NameTeamGMSSNAPSSNAPS/GMSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Derrick HenryTEN62824767.856.7126.444.816038.44
Christian McCaffreyCAR2112568044.653.347.65035.68
Josh JacobsLV62644464.25397.63714034.03
Clyde Edwards-HelaireKC730643.764.749108.535.515031.70
Alvin KamaraNO628347.269.945.2170.460.212831.59
James RobinsonJAX729842.664.646.6133.644.813930.10
Ezekiel ElliottDAL74276180.736.8129.830.415729.70

Above, is the list of RBs who over the course of the season have accounted for over 30% of their team’s offense. I extended the threshold slightly to include Ezekiel Elliot (29.7% rounds up to 30% anyways) to showcase just how much Zeke has been played and used over the past seven weeks. Zeke has over 33% MORE snaps played than anyone else on this list! He has also been used on the second most number of plays. The unfortunate part is that the Cowboys look like they are ready to go on vacation for the remainder of the season.  Zeke is the only person on this list that I would be trying to unload from fantasy rosters. Derrick Henry, King Henry, remains the king of volume and, despite a pedestrian (for him) performance Week 7, is a weekly starter. Speaking of pedestrian performances, Josh Jacobs was completely underwhelming in Sunday’s matchup against the Buccaneers. Jacobs has missed expectations in four of six games so far this year. However, his volume and ability still make him a weekly starter. I’m just tempering my expectations from RB1 to RB2. Kamara has been one of the few bright spots of consistency in 2020 making him a weekly starter. He does face three tough to run on defenses over the next three weeks in Bears, the Bucs, and the 49ers. Rookies Clyde Edwards-Helaire and James Robinson may have started on opposite ends of draft capital but they are both season-long RB1s and have been putting on quite the show this year. I added CMC back to the list as he is back on the practice field. It may still be another week or two before he plays but it is worth remembering the volume dominance that he demands.

RBBC Rewind: Week 7

New York Jets

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
La’Mical PerineBUF4070.23513.533.81424.57
Frank GoreBUF1628.168.8637.51119.33

I wouldn’t have guessed that I would be writing about the Jets in this column because they are relatively worthless from a fantasy perspective. That was until La’Mical Perine stepped in and had himself a top-20 RB performance! Perine is the glimmer of hope that Jets fans and dynasty players wanted to see from the Jets (Mims too but we are talking RBs here). My biggest concern was Adam Gase would find a way to continue playing the ageless Frank Gore over Perine. Surprisingly, the Jets kept the game close against the Bills and Gase continued to get Perine on the field. Gase’s willingness to continue playing Perine will be the wildcard in whether or not Perine is successful moving forward. The next two games for the Jets are softer against the run than the Bills were. The Jets face the Chiefs and then the Patriots before heading to their bye week. I doubt the Cheifs game will stay close so Perine will have to build on his back-to-back two catches on three targets weeks to really make a fantasy impact this week.

New York Giants

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Wayne GallmanPHI3253.346.916.451.21525.00
Devonta FreemanPHI122033.30.86.746.66
Dion LewisPHI1525200.3235.00
Elijhaa PennyPHI23.300000.00

Adding to the injury news, Davonta Freeman was dinged up in the Thursday Night game. This opened the door for Wayne Gallman to post a top-12 RB finish. Believe me, I am as shocked as you to be writing about a Jet and a Giant as top-20 RBs for a week. Freeman will be lucky to get a practice in during the week. Yet, if he can’t, Gallman stands to be the lead back as the Giants take on the stout Tampa defense. I’d roll Gallman out as a flex play in a moment of desperation and hope that he stays active in the passing game. He went 5 of 5 receiving but only for 20 yards. Dion Lewis had been the Giants option in the passing game but has only seen one target over the past two weeks. Lewis might see more work as the Giants will almost assuredly be playing from behind this week, but my money is on Gallman to handle the bulk of the carries.

Seattle Seahawks

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Carlos HydeARI4148.846.316.640.51922.59
Chris CarsonARI1517.946.75.13478.36
DeeJay DallasARI1214.3253.831.733.58
Travis HomerARI161918.816.233.58
Nick BelloreARI11.200000.00

There have been RB injuries all over the league this year but Seattle just got hit with three in a single game! Chris Carson left the game with a mid-foot sprain which opened the door for Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer to pick up extra work. Then, Homer bruised his knee leaving Hyde as the healthy back on the field. But then, Hyde got sidelined with hamstring tightness leaving rookie Deejay Dallas as the last remaining healthy back in Seattle! Seattle is at home Week 8 against the 49ers and the RB room could benefit from another day of rest versus traveling. The most difficult part of the is group is that Hyde and Homer could be healthy enough to play or be last-minute inactives. With such bare waiver wires due to so many injuries, it’s worth grabbing Homer or Dallas. The matchup against the Niners is daunting but with such a high-powered offense I’m willing to roll out any healthy Seahawks back as a flex or dart throw.

San Francisco

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Jeff Wilson Jr.NE3756.151.43286.51928.84
JaMycal HastyNE1522.766.78.355.31015.14
Kyle JuszczykNE3756.116.210.628.669.09
Jerick McKinnonNE1218.225-0.1-0.834.55

Welcome back to the list San Fran! If you read this piece from last week, I told you to start Jeff Wilson as the main guy for the Niners backfield. I didn’t expect three touchdowns and 120 scrimmage yards but GIDDYUP! However, if 2020 has taught us anything it is that you don’t get good things for long. After scoring his third touchdown, Jeff Willson was carted off the field and added to the Injured Reserve with an ankle issue. That will now lead to more hype around JaMycal Hasty. And again, I was big on Hasty as a deep dynasty sleeper. But, I felt that he just had too many obstacles to overcome to get a significant workload. Yet, here we are – Hasty and McKinnon are the two remaining healthy backs in the bay! I am snagging Hasty were ever I can. Over the past two weeks, Hasty has been used on ten plays each week whereas McKinnon went down from 9 plays to 3 plays. There were also some rumblings that McKinnon was on a snap count. I hope that HC Shanahan takes this opportunity to let the rookie loose against an overall weak Seattle defense. If you want a sneak pickup, Tevin Coleman is in the 21-day window to come back from IR. I don’t think he will be back for Sunday but he could be bumped to the lead role if Hasty and McKinnon struggle this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Leonard FournetteLV4055.64515.739.21825.02
Ronald Jones IILV3143.148.410.634.21520.86
Ke’Shawn VaughnLV22.800000.00

Finally, a team that is on this list without the injury bug biting everyone! This is a sensitive topic for parts of the Twitter Fantasy community because there are some people out there that have very strong feelings about Ronald Jones. He is the fantasy community’s cilantro – either you love it or it makes you gag and want to throw up just from the sight of it. Regardless of feelings though, RoJo has put up a top-12 RB year so far. He has finished as the RB4 on a week, four more weeks as an RB24 or better, and has not finished outside of the top 32 backs yet this season. The concern is that in two games with Leonard Fournette healthy and receiving at least 40% of the snaps, Fournette has doubled RoJo’s fantasy output (43.3 to 21.3). This may be the truest case of an RBBC this year as both of these backs when healthy should split the workload fairly evenly. It will take a little time to see how exactly HC Arians is going to deploy these two backs but it seems obvious thus far that Ke’Shawn Vaughn is on the outside looking in. I am holding onto both of these guys until more clarity is provided and maybe for the entire year as injuries have proven that depth is vital this season. But I am more likely to start Fournette at the moment because I feel he is less likely to be game planned out.

That is all for this edition of the RBBC Breakdown! I am just giving in to the fact that we will see more injuries each week. So, be sure to check back next week and follow me on Twitter for extra data on these backfields and much more. Till next time, catch you on the flip side…

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