Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 7

Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 7

I feel like the opening of this article each week has become a “Which RB is Injured Now” piece. But that just makes this even more important to read! If this is your first time reading, you will find the data on how a backfield is using their running backs and analysis on what that may mean for the upcoming weeks. The big injuries to Miles Sanders, Mark Ingram, and Raheem Mostert have opened their respective teams up to the dreaded running back by committee (RBBC). What you’ll find below is a guide to filling the gaps left by these RBs if you had them on your fantasy team or a plan on how to take advantage of a waiver claim on the next RB up on the roster.

Before we jump into the numbers a quick note about the data: The data that I use is populated by the Snap Counts page from FantasyData.com. I then take this raw data and calculate not just whether an RB was on the field but if they were being used and what percentage of the offense did their usage make up. Looking back at the entire season of 2019 (you can find old RBBC Reviews on my profile page), the two stats that I include and lean on heavily, % of Offense and Plays Used, were more correlated with season-long PPR points than Snaps and Snap %. For example, 93% of end of year fantasy points can be explained by the number of plays that a player is used – the more plays a player is actually used on results in more fantasy points. So if a player is being used on a lot of plays but isn’t producing fantasy points yet there is a likelihood that he will regress to the mean in the future and produce more fantasy points.

Season-Long Workhorses

Name Team GMS SNAPS SNAPS/GM SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Derrick Henry TEN 5 240 48 66.9 57.5 111.2 46.3 138 38.47
Josh Jacobs LV 5 232 46.4 67.1 54.3 91.5 39.4 126 36.44
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 6 279 46.5 66.1 49.5 95.2 34.1 138 32.72
Joe Mixon CIN 6 290 48.3 64.9 50 99.6 34.3 145 32.45
Alvin Kamara NO 5 232 46.4 69.3 45.7 147.6 63.6 106 31.67
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 6 390 65 82.5 36.9 123.7 31.7 144 30.44
Aaron Jones GB 5 190 38 56 54.2 115 60.5 103 30.35
Ronald Jones II TB 6 224 37.3 54.5 54.5 90.6 40.4 122 29.70
David Johnson HOU 6 286 47.7 79.4 37.4 76.9 26.9 107 29.70

Above, is the list of RBs who over the course of the season have accounted for over 30% of their team’s offense. I extended the threshold slightly to include Ronald Jones and David Johnson (29.7% rounds up to 30% anyways) because these were guys who many had little to no faith in as the season began. They are also guys that you probably still get on the cheap depending on your league. The others on this list were pretty much expected at the onset of the season. Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Ezekiel Elliott have shown exactly why they should have been atop everyone’s draft boards as they are not only leading their teams in % of Offense but are also all top-5 RBs on the year. Aaron Jones is sitting nicely as the 3rd best back in PPR leagues in spite of the fact he has already had his bye week.  Joe Mixon, who gave us a little injury scare this past Sunday, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Josh Jacobs round out the end of the list of Season Long Workhorses – they also round out the last of the top-12 RBs in PPR. One more time for those of you in the back, being an internal part of your team leads to better fantasy success (Jones is RB13 and Johnson is RB21). Using % of Offense is a great way to find and assure yourself that you are getting a back that is most likely to produce consistent fantasy points.

Week 6 RBBC Rewind

San Francisco 49ers

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Team Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Raheem Mostert LAR 35 47.9 54.3 9.6 27.4 73 19 26.01
JaMycal Hasty LAR 15 20.5 66.7 3.7 24.7 73 10 13.67
Jerick McKinnon LAR 23 31.5 39.1 4.8 20.9 73 9 12.32
Kyle Juszczyk LAR 22 30.1 9.1 1.8 8.2 73 2 2.74

San Fran is back in the RBBC hole. Raheem Mostert is expected to be out a few weeks again with a high ankle sprain. The last time this happened McKinnon finally got his chance to show why he was paid handsomely to leave Minnesota. When Mostert came back McKinnon fell back to being unstartable for fantasy. Now that Mostert is out again, McKinnon is the easy pick-up-and-play guy in this backfield. JaMaycal Hasty has been a favorite of mine as a super deep dynasty sleeper since draft coverage oh so long ago. I still will root for him but realistically Jeff Wilson Jr. is the more likely player to split opportunities with McKinnon. Wilson is next to free in most leagues and if last year proved anything, San Fran can make any RB a serviceable fantasy option. When Tevin Coleman was out two weeks last season Wilson scored four touchdowns. When injuries arose in Week 3, Wilson had earned over 20 PPR points.

Philadelphia Eagles

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Team Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Miles Sanders BAL 29 40.3 37.9 12.2 42.1 72 11 15.27
Boston Scott BAL 35 48.6 17.1 2.9 8.3 72 6 8.31
Corey Clement BAL 7 9.7 0 0 0 72 0 0.00
Jason Huntley BAL 2 2.8 0 0 0 71 0 0.00

If Hasty was a deep sleeper for me, Miles Sanders was a guy that stood on a hill for and prominently planted my flag. This year was supposed to be a huge year for Sanders, unfortunately, the injury inferno that has been raging through the Eagles roster has finally burned Sanders. Unlike San Francisco though, I want nothing to do with this backfield for the one to two weeks that Sanders is expected to be out. In desperation, which is totally possible in the wonky 2020 season, Boston Scott is a spot start. Philly plays the Giants on Thursday night. Thursday night games are notoriously sloppy offensively and neither Philly nor the Gmen has been all that inspired offensively this season. This game will probably be ugly on several counts, but that does open the door for Scott or Clement to rip of a random big run. I’m not counting on it. I am also not counting on anyone in this Eagles running backs room until Sanders returns.

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Detriot Lions

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Team Snaps Plays Used % Offense
D’Andre Swift JAX 29 37.7 62.1 27.3 94.1 77 18 23.41
Adrian Peterson JAX 27 35.1 59.3 12.8 47.4 77 16 20.81
Kerryon Johnson JAX 17 22.1 35.3 3 17.6 77 6 7.80

Quick, find a gif of someone screaming ecstatically! Yup, that’s the feeling most people got watching Swift play against Jacksonville or at least looking at the stats. I have my ticket in hand and my bags packed ready to board the Swift hype train to the breakout party. Unfortunately, Head Coach Matt Patricia seems intent on detouring the train to every stop named Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson first. If you watched the game you saw Swift look like the best back on the field but you also saw AP in first on almost every drive and in the red zone. You also saw what seemed to be designed efforts to get Kerryon Johnson the ball in situations that Swift probably could have made more out of the play. I am stoked to have Swift in a couple of leagues but I am cautiously rolling him out against the Falcons porous defense. I have no qualms about what Swift has shown or what I think he is capable of. I do have qualms with how Matt Patricia is using him!

Washington Football Team

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Team Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Antonio Gibson NYG 27 37 51.9 9.5 35.2 73 14 19.18
J.D. McKissic NYG 39 53.4 35.9 14.4 36.9 73 14 19.18
Peyton Barber NYG 8 11 62.5 2 25 73 5 6.88

Last week against the lowly Giants J.D. McKissic was the RB12 and Antonio Gibson was slightly disappointing as the RB26. The bigger concern is that they were both used for the same number of plays. This is a backfield that could/should be taken over by another rookie running back. By almost all accounts, Gibson is showing much better flashes as a runner and receiver. However, McKissic will continue to be a thorn in the side of Gibson’s fantasy production. The real dilemma for the Washington Football Team is in the offense as a whole and the ineptitude of the quarterback play. If drives can’t be sustained, there will be limited work for Gibson or McKissic. I still like Gibson as a possible RB2 or flex play, especially against the swiss cheese D of the Dallas Cowboys, and McKissic can be rolled out if you are battling byes and injuries. And if you haven’t already Barber is a drop/cut candidate unless injury strikes one of the top two guys.

Baltimore Ravens

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Team Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Gus Edwards PHI 32 43.8 43.8 8.6 26.9 73 14 19.18
J.K. Dobbins PHI 30 41.1 43.3 4.9 16.3 73 13 17.80
Mark Ingram II PHI 9 12.3 55.6 2 22.2 73 5 6.84
Patrick Ricard PHI 28 38.4 3.6 0 0 73 1 1.38

BONUS! I wasn’t going to talk about the Ravens because they are on bye this week (and I’ve already discussed them multiple times) but I feel obliged to at least make a quick note given the injury to Mark Ingram. It appears that Ingram’s injured ankle will at most keep him out Week 8 after the bye. However, Head Coach, John Harbaugh said that he expects Ingram to suit up for the game. If you are rostering Edwards or Dobbins you are hoping that Ingram is limited Week 8 and your guy will have the chance to shine. The issue is that in Week 8 the Ravens are facing the run-stuffing Steelers (currently first in the league in shutting down opposing fantasy running backs). I really am pulling for Dobbins here because he looks like the future of the Ravens rushing attack. He just needs to get sustained opportunities to make it happen.

Maybe if everyone crosses their fingers this week we will finally avoid a big-name running back injury. But, you’re right, how will you hold your beer and chicken wings? Oh well, I guess I’ll see you back here next week to figure out the next RBBCs. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for extra data on these backfields and much more. Till next time, catch you on the flip side…

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