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Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 6

Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 6

I feel like every week so far this season has been wilder than the past week. Week 5 saw Dak Prescott go down for the season with a horrific ankle injury, the Raiders beat the Chiefs, the Dolphins embarrass the Niners, we watched Tom Brady forget what down it was, and we have Tuesday night football because of COVID. 2020 is really trying hard to make sure we remember it! But in such tumultuous times, don’t fret because we are here to help! In the next few paragraphs, you’ll be able to see which running backs are the centerpieces of their offenses (free hint: you want to own these guys!). You’ll also see a whole breakdown of a team’s backfield and what that is going to mean for the team going forward.

Before we jump into the numbers a quick note about the data: The data that I use is populated by the Snap Counts page from FantasyData.com. I then take this raw data and calculate not just whether an RB was on the field but if they were being used and what percentage of the offense did their usage make up. Looking back at the entire season of 2019 (you can find old RBBC Reviews on my profile page), the two stats that I include and lean on heavily, % of Offense and Plays Used, were more correlated with season-long PPR points than Snaps and Snap %. For example, 93% of end of year fantasy points can be explained by the number of plays that a player is used – the more plays a player is actually used on results in more fantasy points. So if a player is being used on a lot of plays but isn’t producing fantasy points yet there is a likelihood that he will regress to the mean in the future and produce more fantasy points.

Season-Long Workhorses

Name Team GMS SNAPS SNAPS/GM SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Derrick Henry TEN 4 195 48.8 68.7 56.9 70.8 36.3 111 39.09
Josh Jacobs LV 5 232 46.4 67.1 54.3 91.5 39.4 126 36.44
Christian McCaffrey CAR 2 112 56 80 44.6 53.3 47.6 50 35.68
Dalvin Cook MIN 5 206 41.2 63.6 52.4 113.3 55 108 33.33
Joe Mixon CIN 5 251 50.2 67.1 49.4 84.7 33.7 124 33.15
Aaron Jones GB 4 154 38.5 55.8 57.1 101.9 66.2 88 31.86
Alvin Kamara NO 5 232 46.4 69.3 45.7 147.6 63.6 106 31.67
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 5 336 67.2 87.5 36 111.7 33.2 121 31.50
Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 5 230 46 65.9 47 74.3 32.3 108 30.97

Derrick Henry is still atop the list of runners that make up the most of their offense after steamrolling the Bills on Tuesday night. I am very excited about the future of the Raiders especially with Josh Jacobs leading the way. If the team continues to build around him he will be able to be more efficient with his touches and truly take advantage of his volume.  Cook got dinged up this past week but hopefully will only need a week off and the bye to get right. Joe Mixon is in a similar spot as Josh Jacobs in that their volume is amazing – unfortunately, Joe has been able to do much when he actually gets the ball in his hands. Aaron Jones and GB were on by this week but should get right back on track in Week 6. Even with Latavius Murray making up almost 18% of the Saints offense, Alvin Kamara is still over 30% of the Saints offense. And unlike Mixon and Jacobs, Kamara has been highly effective with the ball in his hands. Ezekiel Elliott has played more snaps than any other RB (80 more than Joe Mixon who ranks second). With Dak’s ankle injury, it can be assumed but almost difficult to fathom that Zeke’s usage could increase. Clyde Edwards-Helaire closes out the RBs that make up over 30% of their team’s offense and once again I will say I didn’t see it coming but he will need to find the endzone on some of these plays to bolster his fantasy stock.

Week 5 RBBC Rewind

Baltimore Ravens

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Mark Ingram II CIN 19 30.2 57.9 5.7 30 11 17.49
Gus Edwards CIN 25 39.7 40 2.5 10 10 15.88
J.K. Dobbins CIN 18 28.6 22.2 8.5 47.2 4 6.35
Patrick Ricard CIN 17 27 11.8 1.7 10 2 3.19

The Ravens are back on this list of RBBCs because they are quite possibly the most difficult to own in fantasy.  When I wrote about them two weeks ago, I said Ingram would be the startable back moving forward, Dobbins is the long-term play and Gus Edwards is there just to mess things up for fantasy. Luckily I don’t own Ingram in any of the many leagues I am in, but if I did, I would not be starting him. I would actively be trying to trade him for just about anything in return because his inconsistency is a fantasy death sentence. If you have Dobbins in Dynasty, I hope you have a taxi squad you can stash him on because he is almost impossible to start now as well. If you are desperate, he has proved that only four plays can produce a halfway decent outing – but, that’s not a game I am willing to play. Gus Edwards is doing exactly as I predicted causing havoc in this backfield. Edwards is just good enough to get plenty of carries in a blow-out like this against the Bengals. However, he is just not good enough to demand a spot in fantasy lineups. Given the fact that the Ravens are such a good rushing team (currently second in team rushing yards), I was hoping that there would be a back from this committee worth rostering and playing in fantasy leagues but unfortunately, this is a running back room that is best avoided.

Minnesota Vikings

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Alexander Mattison SEA 43 49.4 53.5 16.6 38.6 23 26.43
Dalvin Cook SEA 36 41.4 61.1 19.9 55.3 22 25.30
C.J. Ham SEA 29 33.3 6.9 0 0 2 2.30
Mike Boone SEA 5 5.7 40 1.9 38 2 2.28
Ameer Abdullah SEA 1 1.1 0 0 0 0 0.00

Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for over 50% of the Vikings offense in a tough fought one-point loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Alexander Mattison has proven that he can come in and play when Cook needs a breather or is nursing an injury. Cook is currently doing the latter. Cook left the game in the third quarter with a groin injury that doesn’t appear to be that long term. From rumblings on Twitter and other media outlets it seems likely he will only miss Week 6 against the Falcons and return after the Vikings bye Week 7 to face the Packers Week 8. If you’ve held on to Mattison since the draft this is the week to get him in your lineup as the Falcons are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing offenses. The Vikings will most likely head into their bye week at 2-4 on the season. If Cook needs additional time to recover from this injury, it would make sense not to rush him back especially after he just signed a long-term contract with the team. This could open the door for some more playing time for Mattison. Mattison is a must grab if for some unknown reason he is on waivers. I wouldn’t use a roster space for any of the other backs at this time.

Los Angeles Rams

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Darrell Henderson Jr. WAS 29 42.6 65.5 21.8 75.2 19 27.90
Malcolm Brown WAS 26 38.2 38.5 3.4 13.1 10 14.71
Cam Akers WAS 13 19.1 69.2 6.1 46.9 9 13.22

Well hello, Mr. Henderson! Hopefully, you didn’t sit Henderson this week after everyone (including me) said to fire him up last week and he left a stinker on the field. The Rams backfield is a perfect example of why Snap % is just not as effective of a stat as Plays Used or % Offense. Malcolm Brown was in for only 3 fewer snaps than Henderson but Henderson had almost double the Plays Used. It appears that HC Sean McVay is most comfortable with Brown in the backfield for the play-action passing game that Rams thrive on. Yet Brown just doesn’t get the work to be useful the way that Henderson does. Cam Akers had a really nice run late in the game. Yet, the majority of his work came with five minutes left remaining as the Rams ran the clock in a two-score victory. Henderson is definitely the guy to own in this backfield. However, Cam is a guy that I am willing to add to my roster if I have a guy that I am finally willing to cut bait on.

Los Angeles Chargers

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Justin Jackson NO 42 59.2 50 14.4 34.3 21 29.60
Joshua Kelley NO 25 35.2 48 4.8 19.2 12 16.90
Troymaine Pope NO 4 5.6 0 0 0 0 0.00
Gabe Nabers NO 13 18.3 0 0 0 0 0.00

Ok, it might be too early to say for certain but I think I choose poorly with the Chargers backfield. I expected Kelley to be the workhorse but that just wasn’t the case. I even looked at the fact that he only got carries on 1st and 2nd downs and assumed he must have been facing stacked boxes. Nope! According to NFL Next Gen Stats [insert link], Kelley only saw eight defenders in the box 9% of the time – Justin Jackson saw eight in the box 13% of the time. I fully expected Jackson to see work in the passing game and on third-downs but it looks like he will the Chargers go-to fantasy back. Hopefully, you were able to put in the waiver claim I suggested making last week and now have Jackson moving forward. Kelley at this point is a depth piece that I am holding onto in case of more injuries but I really do not want him in my lineup (yes, I am a bit bitter that he has been in my lineups recently!).

Arizona Cardinals

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Kenyan Drake NYJ 50 66.7 38 13.2 26.4 19 25.35
Chase Edmonds NYJ 34 45.3 26.5 20.2 59.4 9 12.00
Jonathan Ward NYJ 3 4 0 0 0 0 0.00

The Cardinals backfield is your typical RBBC. Drake has almost 4 times as many rushing attempts as Edmonds yet Edmonds has 3 times as many receptions as Drake. Drake is going to be slightly more consistent as he will continue to get volume. However, the high risk-reward play is Edmonds and his ability to get into the endzone. Despite being used less than half of the plays compared to Drake, Edmonds has earned three total touchdowns (Drake only has two).  According to ESPN, Edmonds is still available in almost 40% of leagues. If your league is one of this 40%, I suggest grabbing Edmonds ASAP! And if you need another reason to fire up Edmonds (or Drake in this case), the Cardinals play the abysmal defensive unit of the Dallas Cowboys next week. Either, or possibly both could end up top-12 RBs or better in this juicy matchup.

That is all for this week’s RBBC Breakdown. I can’t wait to see what the football gods have in store for us in Week 6! As always you can find me on Twitter @FFTheAtHomeDad and let me know what teams you want to see in next week’s RBBC Breakdown! Till then, catch you on the flip side…

 

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