Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 11

salvon ahmed

Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 11

Week 1o is over and we are only three weeks away from most leagues’ playoffs! This week we saw a guy tied for the 25th most TDs for an RB get cut, Dalvin Cook have his worst game of the season and still finish as the RB15, a practice squad guy who performed well Week 9 then was sent back to the practice squad then brought back up outperform the “lead back”, and, of course, a couple of injuries sprinkled on top! With so much happening you need the best data to help you make your fantasy decisions. Below is the most correlated data point to fantasy success that I have seen for running backs. So, please enjoy this Week’s RBBC Breakdown!

Before we jump into the numbers a quick note about the data: The data that I use is populated by the Snap Counts page from FantasyData.com. I then take this raw data and calculate not just whether an RB was on the field but if they were being used and what percentage of the offense did their usage make up. Looking back at the entire season of 2019 (you can find old RBBC Reviews on my profile page), the two stats that I include and lean on heavily, % of Offense and Plays Used, were more correlated with season-long PPR points than Snaps and Snap %. For example, 93% of end of year fantasy points can be explained by the number of plays that a player is used – the more plays a player is actually used on results in more fantasy points. So, if a player is being used on a lot of plays but isn’t producing fantasy points yet, there is a likelihood that he will regress to the mean in the future and produce more fantasy points.

Season-Long Workhorses

NameTeamGMSSNAPSSNAPS/GMSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Dalvin CookMIN829036.259.268.6216.374.619940.61
Derrick HenryTEN938242.463.957.9162.342.522137.00
Josh JacobsLV938342.663.355.4153.940.221235.07
James RobinsonJAX940144.667.548.4162.740.619432.67
Alvin KamaraNO941746.368.244.1246.459.118430.08

Above, is the list of RBs who over the course of the season have accounted for over 30% of their team’s offense. Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs have been used on more plays than any other backs. Both have had some struggles with consistency, each has two games under 10 PPR points, but the volume they get make them must-starts even against tough matchups. Dalvin has been Cook-ing! (Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.) Even in his worst fantasy game of the year on Monday night against the Bears D, he still finished with 15 PPR points and as the RB15. Kamara and Cook are the only RBs so far this season with double-digit touchdowns (rushing and receiving). Cook and Kamara’s usage and ability to score in both phases of offense makes them impossible to bench. James Robinson has been the rookie sensation to really shine this season. He is currently the RB3 on the season even on a dreadful Jacksonville team. Despite tough matchups the next two weeks, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a back worth starting over Robinson. And if you need more of a reason to trust % of Offense over Snap %, these five rushers who are tops in % of Offense are also RB1-5 on the season!

RBBC Rewind: Week 10

Miami

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Salvon AhmedLAC4475.9501636.42237.95
DeAndre WashingtonLAC46.9500.2523.45
Patrick LairdLAC1017.2201.91923.44

We are heading to Miami first, and not just because it is always warm and sunny there and it is currently about 32 degrees in New York! For all the negativity around the 2020 season, it has opened the door for so many fantasy deep sleepers to get an opportunity. Salvon Ahmed was a guy that was probably unowned or on a taxi squad in even the deeper dynasty leagues. However, he should have been a waiver claim and FAAB buy last week and if you waited to this week you may have missed out. Ahmed was a beast and looked every part of a workhorse back. The other backs on the team barely saw the field let alone the ball win Week 10. And to solidify Ahmed’s accession, the Fins parted ways with bruising goal-line back Jordan Howard after he was a healthy scratch in Week 10. Matt Breida could come back from his hamstring injury to take some touches but that will most likely be from Washington and Laird. If, somehow, Ahmed is still available in your league, stop reading and go get him, then come back and finish reading.

Cleveland Browns

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Kareem HuntHOU3858.560.516.242.62335.39
Nick ChubbHOU2843.171.418.666.42030.77
Andy JanovichHOU1523.100000.00

Everyone wanted to know what the split would be for Hunt and Chubb as Chubb returned from his multiple week injury. Who would be fantasy relevant? It turns out the answers were: pretty even and BOTH! Despite Hunt having more snaps than Chubb, they were almost equal in actual Plays Used and both had great fantasy days. Chubb’s day would have been even better if he didn’t run out of bounds at the 1-yard line with only seconds left to end the game…but that’s still a fresh wound and we won’t go there. On the season, Hunt has been just shy of 29% of the Browns offense which has led him to be the 8th best PPR rusher. I expect Chubb to start to eat into those numbers slightly over the next few weeks, but I am ready and willing to fire up both Chubb and Hunt as they are clearly the best chance the Browns have a winning.

Los Angeles Chargers

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
Kalen BallageMIA467352.215.2332438.11
Joshua KelleyMIA172741.22.112.4711.12
Gabe NabersMIA1015.9101.91911.59

Welcome back to the list LA! Actually, that’s not a compliment.  And the truth is this backfield has been one of the worst for fantasy owners on the season. Just to make sure everyone is aware, Kallen Ballage has as many top-15 RB weeks as he has teams that have cut/waived him! In two weeks, Ballage has scored 73% of the points that Joshua Kelley has scored in nine games (9 GAMES!). In back to back weeks, Ballage has been promoted from the practice squad to outplay all the RBs for the Chargers. Over this time, Ballage has been used on 42 plays to Kelley’s 21. Ballage is a guy worth holding onto even when Ekeler returns because as we saw with CMC, nothing is guaranteed especially in 2020. Kelley is a guy worth passing over on the scrap heap.

Detriot Lions

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
D’Andre SwiftWAS4372.948.825.960.22135.58
Adrian PetersonWAS711.971.4457.158.50
Kerryon JohnsonWAS915.311.10.33.311.70
Jonathan WilliamsWAS35.100000.00

Detriot had been in this series in the past but this time it is for a positive reason! We are here today to anoint D’Andre Swift as the lead back in Detriot. Yes, HC Matt Patricia might have something to say about that moving forward. However, over the last three weeks, Swift has been used on 49 plays to Peterson’s 24 plays.  Each week, Swift has out rushed and outscored Peterson.  In the next six weeks of the Lions schedule, they only have the Bears and the Bucs as top-end rushing defenses.  If Patricia continues to use Swift as he has over the last three weeks, Swift could be a vital piece to a playoff run. I’m trying to acquire him where I can but be prepared to pay as many people that own him have been tied to him since the draft.

Washington Football Team

RBBC Breakdown

NameOPPSNAPSSNAP %UTIL %FPtsFPts/100 SnapsPlays Used% Offense
J.D. McKissicDET6270.537.117.928.92326.16
Antonio GibsonDET3337.551.522.568.21719.31
Peyton BarberDET1011.4302.42433.42

Washington has been through a lot. So has their quarterback Alex Smith. Yet somehow there is still fantasy gold to be had here. Both McKissic and Gibson finished as top-12 RBs in Week 10 thanks to two touchdowns for Gibson and 7 receptions on 15(!) targets for McKissic. Since Washington’s Week 8 bye, both rushers have been weekly top-20 RBs. Gibson has gotten the majority of the rushing attempts (19 att – 11) but McKissic has dominated the passing game (16 rec of 29 targets – 7 of 7). McKissic has more receptions than Terry McLaurin the Team’s WR1. Similar to Cleveland though, I am rolling out both of these backs with confidence. McKissic will have the safer floor as even in negative games, he will be bolstered by consistent check-downs from Alex Smith. Gibson still receives initial touches and work in the passing game but is also the team’s goal-line back. This has a little more variance as touchdowns are much less predictable but volume should continue to save Gibson’s fantasy day.

Other Backfields to Watch

  • Seattle – A staple of this section, Seattle needs to be watched as recent add Alex Collins led the way in Chris Carson’s absence. Most likely your fantasy team is as desperate for Carson to return as the Seahawks offense is.
  • San Fran – Hasty broke his clavicle and the hype I wanted for him will not be realized this season, maybe ever. But that did lead to the Niners having only one back, McKinnon, who handled almost all of the RB work but amassed so few fantasy points. Mostert may be coming back in a week or two so this is still a wait-and-watch situation.
  • Las Vegas – Where did Devontae Booker come from? I wouldn’t be worried as Booker only saw 4 plays in the first half before the Raiders locked things up in the second half. But if you are the Jacobs owner this may lead you to pick Booker up for insurance.
  • Tampa Bay – This maybe the roulette table of Fantasy Football. Each week you bet on Red or Black and there’s a 50-50 chance you will have an RB1 or a complete dud. Week 10 was RoJo’s turn to be an RB1 and Fournette’s turn to be a dud.

That is all for this edition of the RBBC Breakdown! Be sure to check back next week and follow me on Twitter for extra data on these backfields and much more. Till next time, catch you on the flip side…

 

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