Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 10

Fantasy Football RBBC Breakdown: Week 10

Christian McCaffrey is the perfect analogy for the 2020 season. Just when we all thought CMC was back (and he was to the tune of 37.1 PPR points, the RB2 on the week), he gets injured again with only a minute left on the clock. Ian Rapoport suggests that CMC playing Week 10 is “in doubt”.  Hopefully, you didn’t drop Mike Davis! As you continue to push for the fantasy playoffs, knowing these injuries and who is leading their backfield is vital and why the data that follows is so helpful. Welcome to Week 10’s RBBC Breakdown!

Before we jump into the numbers a quick note about the data: The data that I use is populated by the Snap Counts page from FantasyData.com. I then take this raw data and calculate not just whether an RB was on the field but if they were being used and what percentage of the offense did their usage make up. Looking back at the entire season of 2019 (you can find old RBBC Reviews on my profile page), the two stats that I include and lean on heavily, % of Offense and Plays Used, were more correlated with season-long PPR points than Snaps and Snap %. For example, 93% of end of year fantasy points can be explained by the number of plays that a player is used – the more plays a player is actually used on results in more fantasy points. So, if a player is being used on a lot of plays but isn’t producing fantasy points yet, there is a likelihood that he will regress to the mean in the future and produce more fantasy points.

Season-Long Workhorses

Name Team GMS SNAPS SNAPS/GM SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Derrick Henry TEN 8 344 43 64.5 58.1 150.4 43.7 200 37.47
Josh Jacobs LV 8 340 42.5 63.8 55 124.3 36.6 187 35.09
Christian McCaffrey CAR 3 171 57 76.7 45.6 90.4 52.9 78 34.98
Dalvin Cook MIN 7 290 41.4 59.2 56.9 201.1 69.3 165 33.68
James Robinson JAX 8 348 43.5 65.7 47.7 149.5 43 166 31.34
Alvin Kamara NO 8 378 47.2 68.5 44.4 211.6 56 168 30.41

Above, is the list of RBs who over the course of the season have accounted for over 30% of their team’s offense. Derrick Henry remains as the king of volume. Despite a poor performance against a tough Chicago defense, King Henry should continue to be an auto-start. Josh Jacobs continues to get volume without earning any matchup up winning points. He has had only two games with less than 10 points but he has also only had two games with more than 20 points. Dalvin Cook on the other hand has only had two games with less than 20 points on roughly 20 fewer plays used. Both will be in your lineups if healthy though. Rookie James Robinson has been a bright spot on the injury-ravaged running back landscape. He accounts for over 30% of the Jags offensive plays and is the RB4 on the season. Even with a QB change this past week Robinson still put up a top-5 RB performance. Alvin Kamara had a “down week” for him only scoring 15.9 PPR points but that was tied with Robinson as the 5th best RB output on the week. Kamara has been a dominant force all season and just like all of the backs on this list, is a fantasy must-start. If your team is still in playoff contention and one of these guys is on a team that is will most likely miss the playoffs, you have to try to make a trade work before your league’s trade deadline.

RBBC Rewind: Week 9

Buffalo Bills

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Zack Moss SEA 38 55.9 28.9 12.8 33.7 11 16.16
Devin Singletary SEA 31 45.6 16.1 6.4 20.6 5 7.34

This week was the final nail in the Devin Singletary fantasy coffin. Singletary did not have a single rushing attempt in the first half of this game and his only carry inside the 10 was for a loss of a yard. Zack Moss had more rushing attempts, a score from one yard out, and one of the longest plays for Buffalo – a 20-yard reception. The bigger issue in Buffalo is the complete inability to run the ball. The Bills gained only 34 yards on 19 carries for an abysmal 1.8 yards per attempt. Toss in the fact that Josh Allen poached a rushing touchdown and you have a messy running back room that is going to be dependent on who gets in the endzone. And, the Bills face only one positive matchup over the remaining fantasy schedule (Week 12 against the Chargers currently giving up the 8th most points to RBs) and have three games against the top-ten toughest defenses against the run (Week 13 – San Fran, Week 14 Pit, Week 15 Denver). So, I am looking to offload either of these guys in redraft leagues in a package to get a better runner.

Chicago Bears

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
David Montgomery TEN 50 64.9 34 5.2 10.4 17 22.07
Ryan Nall TEN 10 13 40 13.5 135 4 5.20
Artavis Pierce TEN 1 1.3 0 0 0 0 0.00

Add David Montgomery to the list of injured RBs. He was concussed Week 9 and will probably miss Week 10. This leaves the door open for someone to pick up 15+ touches and hopefully, do more with them than what Montgomery has been able to muster. Ryan Nall had the big week fantasy-wise with four receptions for 35 yards and a score. He didn’t get a single rushing attempt though. Wide receiver and utility player Cordarrelle Patterson had second-most attempts (3) for 13 yards. The longest rush of the game was a fake punt to linebacker Barkevious Mingo for 11 yards. Like the Bills, the Bears were bad rushing the ball amassing only 56 total yards on 20 attempts. There are only two plays that I “like” here (and “like” seems way to0 strong of a word). One is picking up Nall off of waivers. Despite not getting an attempt last week, I think he will probably be the main guy and has shown an ability to work in the passing game. I am weary of Patterson and maybe Pierce mixing into the backfield just so the bears can see what they have. The other option is a lotto ticket in Lamar Miller who is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL could be activated from the practice squad. Miller has shown he can be effective even on bad teams (Houston and the Dolphins) but the question will be if he has anything left in the tank.

Los Angeles Chargers

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Kalen Ballage LV 31 39.2 58.1 16.4 52.9 18 22.78
Joshua Kelley LV 43 54.4 32.6 10.9 25.3 14 17.73
Gabe Nabers LV 1 1.3 100 7.4 740 1 1.30
Justin Jackson LV 3 3.8 0 0 0 0 0.00

When Justin Jackson left with an injury during the first drive of the Chargers game against the Raiders, I thought we would finally see what Joshua Kelley can do. Troymaine Pope was already sidelined with a concussion. Pope had 17 plays to Kelley’s eight Week 8 against Denver. Instead, we saw or at least I finally accepted that the Chargers do not want to rely on Joshua Kelley, like at all. Kalen Ballage who was waived by the Jets in early October and promoted from the Chargers practice squad the day before the game, had 18 plays, 15 rushes and 3 targets, for 84 yards and one trip to paydirt! Ballage finished as the week’s fourth-best rusher. Kelley, who was held scoreless, had his fantasy day floated by 5 receptions. With Ekeler like to miss more time, I am selling Kelley to anyone who will buy him. And, I’m only picking Ballage up as insurance if Jackson’s injury keeps him out for Week 10. Jackson is the guy I really want in this backfield so hopefully, he gets healthy soon.

Miami Dolphins

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Jordan Howard ARI 21 34.4 47.6 7.9 37.6 10 16.37
Salvon Ahmed ARI 28 45.9 25 3.8 13.6 7 11.48
Patrick Laird ARI 12 19.7 16.7 2.6 21.7 2 3.29
Chandler Cox ARI 9 14.8 0 0 0 0 0.00

With Gaskin on IR and Matt Breida out with a hamstring issue, we expected Howard to be the main guy. I did not expect Salvon Ahmed to get as much work as he did though. In a stunning upset where the Dolphins lead until the third quarter then came back in the fourth, I would have expected to see the rushers get used a little bit more to keep the Cardinals’ dangerous offense off the field. However, the backfield only saw a total of 19 plays out of the 61 played by the Fins. Howard did what we all expected 10 rushes for 19 yards and a score. Yes, that is a terrible 1.9 yards per attempt. Salvon Ahmed shined as the best rusher in the game with 7 attempts for 38 yards good for 5.4 yards per attempt. If Breida misses more time with his hamstring injury I like taking a flyer on the rookie against a peachy matchup against the Chargers in Week 10.

New England Patriots

RBBC Breakdown

Name OPP SNAPS SNAP % UTIL % FPts FPts/100 Snaps Plays Used % Offense
Rex Burkhead NYJ 34 42 44.1 15.7 46.2 15 18.52
Damien Harris NYJ 28 34.6 50 7.1 25.4 14 17.30
James White NYJ 21 25.9 33.3 6.4 30.5 7 8.62
Jakob Johnson NYJ 45 55.6 4.4 2.6 5.8 2 2.45

The Patriots almost lost to the winless New York Jets on Monday night. Despite that fact, the runners for New England has a decent night gaining 159 yards and three scores. Cam Newton punched in two of the scores and Rex Burkhead got the third.  Burkhead is my favorite in this backfield moving forward in PPR leagues. He seems to be edging James White out of the passing game and eats into the attempts of Damien Harris. Harris is the best pure runner of the bunch but is non-existent in the passing game (he only has two targets on the entire season!) significantly hurting his value in PPR leagues. The Pats face a tough matchup in Week 10 against the Ravens but the remainder of their schedule is filled with easy or middle of the road defenses against fantasy rushers. I am rolling sexy Rexy out as a flex option with RB2 upside for the remainder of the year.

Other Backfields to Watch

  • Seattle – I mentioned watching this backfield last week as injuries were a concern and they still are this week. I’m cautiously playing my Seahawks players if I have them unless news changes.
  • Denver – Lindsay had more plays in Week 9 but fewer snaps than Melvin Gordon. However, neither of them had fantasy-relevant output. They both scored less than 5 PPR points.
  • Baltimore – In Mark Ingram’s absence, Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins split the Ravens touches. Ingram could be back this week which would make this backfield very difficult to trust moving forward. I’ll be watching to see who is getting the work and when.
  • Indianapolis – Jonathan Taylor’s fumble led to Jordan Wilkins leading the team in plays used. I still really like JT but keeping an eye on his development is a must.

That is all for this edition of the RBBC Breakdown! Be sure to check back next week and follow me on Twitter for extra data on these backfields and much more. Till next time, catch you on the flip side…

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.