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Fantasy Football Playoff Advice (Week 14)

Love it or hate it, weeks 14 through 16 in the NFL come with so many layers of frustration for Fantasy Football owners. Weather is now a factor, and many fantasy studs you would usually never think about benching, are all of the sudden huge question marks.


Advice: Keep Calm and Carry On

NFL Weather Week 14Love it or hate it, weeks 14 through 16 in the NFL come with so many layers of frustration for Fantasy Football owners. Weather is now a factor, and many fantasy studs you would usually never think about benching, are all of the sudden huge question marks. Snow, heavy winds or icy conditions can ruin just about any passing game, but let’s not disrespect the veteran gunslingers in this league. Not all NFL QB’s struggle in the cold. Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are excellent cold weather QB’s. They have to be, as the NFL Playoffs isn’t played in the spring. You want to win a playoff game, learn how to throw a wet ball. You want to play in the Super Bowl, learn how to judge your wide receivers speed on a windy day. There’s a reason why we see so many of the same teams playing in the post-season, it’s because an “elite” quarterback knows how to get it done in December. Yes, this next sentence will have the name Joe Flacco in it. Say what you want about him being elite or not, but if I have to choose between Flacco or Drew Brees to play in a rain storm, I would pick Flacco.

I actually remember an interview with Tom Brady a few years back where he said he loves playing in icy wet conditions, as the slippery field slows pass rushers and allows him more time to scan the field. Of course, Brady is the exception to the rule, as most the NFL will have a severe drop in offensive output over the next month due to what looks like an ugly winter.

One tip to get the inside scoop on NFL game conditions is to pay attention to betting lines by visiting an NFL sportsbook. The Over/Under is the total projected points for each game. These betting lines are usually determined based on each team’s offensive and defensive track record and the playing conditions on that day. If you see a line drop, then you know sportsbooks are adjusting based on rain, wind, snow or last minute injuries. Keep in mind that using betting lines for fantasy should be taken with a grain of salt. The best advice I can give this time of year is to start your studs and not to overthink matchups or streaks.

Thursday night’s game between the Raiders and Chiefs is a great example. Fantasy owners were concerned about starting players in fridged conditions, but as it turns out, it was the dreaded Thursday night short week that kept the road team from warming up. Alex Smith threw for 261 yards with a touchdown to help the Chiefs, returning home after back-to-back road wins, beat Oakland for the seventh time in their last eight meetings. Neither team was held back from the weather, it was Derek Carr’s broken finger in my opinion that hurt his overall performance.

Fantasy Advice on Weather

Make the weather the final deciding factor for a tough decision you’re torn with. But don’t re-arrange your entire lineup purely based on weather. If you have Doug Baldwin or Donte Moncrief, and you can only pick one, choose Moncreif as the Packers/Seahawks game appears to be a snow game. But in another scenario, where the choices are Doug Baldwin and a handful of bums on the waiver wire, don’t overthink it and just start Baldwin. The Seahawks are still going to throw the ball, there’s just going to be a drop-off in total passing yards from their yearly average.

Check out Gridiron Experts Fantasy Projections for all your lineup needs.

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