Fantasy Football Overreactions from Week 9
Well, we are halfway through the fantasy football season. Our overreactions haven’t dampened, nor should they. They should happen when we count on matchups to pull us up and make a relevant run for the fantasy football playoffs.
And should we overreact to the unbelievable feats of Joe Mixon and Justin Fields? How about the abysmal feats of Aaron Rodgers and Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, or Mike Evans?
How do we feel about Kliff Kingsbury, Josh McDaniels, and Jeff Saturday? Are we willing to bet our fantasy fortunes on their ability to coach respectable players to decent outcomes? Outcomes we should mention that not only affect our fantasy fortunes but would be good for their teams too. Nah, we aren’t.
Where is the Love?
Enough already. The numbers say it all. Coming into the game, the Detroit Lions were allowing the third-most passing yards per game (268.5), the most points per game (29.3), and the third-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (21.0).
The $42 million man entered the game in a smash spot!
Literally, the Lions had just given up 382 passing yards and three touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa. Yes, he has Tyreek Hill and Jayleen Waddle, who are doing incredible things. But what about a returning Dax Prescott, who amassed 207 passing yards and one touchdown? With CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown the leading receivers, who are comparable to Alan Lazard and Romeo Doubs? Yes?
Fast forward to Week9 and Aaron Rodgers in a smash spot. Is Rodgers great, right? He will, right? Rodgers will just annihilate the porous Lions’ defense. He will turn around this season and their five consecutive losses and pound the Lions while enriching our fantasy fortunes.
Fast forward to Week9: 23-of-43, 291 passing yards, one touchdown, three interceptions (all in the red zone), four carries, 40 rushing yards, and a 53.5 passer rating.
Are you telling me Jordan Love couldn’t do that? Come on now!
Incompetent Coaches Fricking Up My Fantasy Team While Screwing Their Real Teams
Last season the Las Vegas Raiders were in turmoil. Their head coach was fired, their speedster wide receiver was in jail for a drunken driving car wreck that took the life of another and her dog, and they had just lost three games in a row.
Enter interim head coach Rich Bisaccia. Bisaccia quieted the noise and led the Raiders to a playoff berth.
But owner Mark Davis deemed Bisaccia wasn’t the right man to lead the Raiders this year. So, they acquired Josh McDaniels. This is the same man who was relieved of his head coaching duties in Denver mid-season (drafted Tim Tebow first round) and took the head coaching job in Indianapolis only to “change his mind” final hour after hiring coaches and such.
Where are the Raiders now? They are sitting at 2-6 while epically losing games. Last week after blowing yet another lead, the Raiders scored on their first five possessions and led 20-7 at halftime. Davante Adams had ZERO yards and one reception after halftime. Oh, I forgot that before halftime Adams had nine receptions, two touchdowns, and 146 receiving yards. Adams had nine targets in the first half and eight in the second half. Jacksonville adjusted the Raiders did not. It is that simple.
Kliff Kingsbury was hired from the college ranks because of his “innovative offensive mind.” He has preceded to have a team that melts down in the second half, except this year, and the meltdown did not wait for the second half. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five games.
The Cardinals look lost. Week9 against the surprising 6-3, first in the NFC West Seattle Seahawks, the Cardinals were called for 12 penalties, had a horrifically botched snap, and receivers were dropping catchable passes. Quarterback Kyler Murray isn’t being used to his full capabilities (hey, Kliff, look at Justin Fields), and the return of DeAndre Hopkins isn’t the cureall that the Cardinals seemed to bank on (although it isn’t hurting our fantasy fortunes). Kingsbury’s offensive schemes are not innovative but predictable. The 3-6 Cardinals deserve better
ESPN analyst Christian Academy’s head coach Jeff Saturday is the new interim head coach for the Indianapolis Colts. That’s it.
Yes, Please, More of That
Joe Mixon ran 22 times for 153 rushing yards, four touchdowns, and averaged 7.0 yards per carry. He was also targeted five times for four receptions, 58 yards, and one receiving touchdown. He finished with 51.1 fantasy points in standard and 55.1 in PPR leagues.
That was against the Carolina Panthers, who allowed the third-most fantasy points to the running back position (21.9). But Mixon’s feat doubled that… have mercy!
Are you overreacting if you want more of Mixon? Not necessarily. His next three games are against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers are giving up an average of 16.8 fantasy points to the running back position (20th ranked), the Chiefs, 17.2 (23rd rank), and the Titans a little more formidable, giving up the third-fewest to the position (12).
The real question is when Ja’Marr Chase is coming back. In the two games without Chase, Mixon’s target share has increased. In Week8, he jumped to nine targets (after being targeted three and five times and the two previous games). It isn’t an overreaction to want every part of Mixon for the next three weeks as long as you temper your expectations against the Titans.
You know what they say. It isn’t paranoid if the threat is real. Just like it isn’t an overreaction if the panic button is being pressed repeatedly.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.