BUY LOW SELL HIGH Week 7
We’re now heading into Week 7 of the fantasy football season, and believe it or not, most leagues are about a third of the way done for the year. That means that the trade deadline will be starting to approach in the next 3-4 weeks in most leagues, so if you’ve haven’t been active on the trade market, now’s the time to get some deals done before you can’t anymore. Today, we’ll be looking at three players that you should be looking to buy and bring onto your roster and three you should be looking to ship off and sell before they lose value in the coming weeks:
Puka Nacua, WR
Puka Nacua finally put up a dud game. He ended Week 6 as the WR56 in PPR formats, which obviously burned a lot of fantasy managers who started him in a good matchup against the Cardinals. Cooper Kupp went off, and now fantasy managers of the rookie are starting to panic and think that the beginning of the end is here for his magical run now that Kupp is back in the lineup. I, however, think that this presents an interesting time to buy him, and I believe that Matthew Stafford can sustain both of these guys moving forward. They don’t have to be mutually exclusive.
Puka Nacua still has the 2nd most Targets in the NFL behind only Ja'Marr Chase
Kupp will hurt him but Puka is THAT DUDE
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) October 17, 2023
The reason that now is the perfect time to buy is because all of the nightmares that Nacua managers had came to life in Week 6. Kupp looked just as good as ever, and the rookie had a bust game when that happened. What people don’t realize, however, is that the game script was terrible for Nacua. The Rams only passed the ball 24 times on the day. They didn’t need to pass more than that to beat the lowly Cardinals. For reference, Matthew Stafford’s next lowest attempt total on the season was 33 in Week 3. This was an anomalous week for the offense as a whole, and Nacua still got a near-30% target share. He’s been elite this year and will bounce back with some more competitive matchups coming in the next few weeks.
Jerome Ford, RB
Don’t look now, but Jerome Ford has finished as an RB2 or better in every single game since Nick Chubb went down with a season-ending knee injury. The fantasy community doesn’t really seem to have caught on to just how good he’s been, but he’s finding a way to produce every week, even in Week 6 with starting QB Deshaun Watson out and a terrible matchup against the 49ers’ defense.
Now, Ford has three straight juicy matchups against the Colts, Seahawks, and Cardinals in the coming weeks. He’s primed for some big games in that stretch, and we’ve seen that he has high week-to-week potential with him already having multiple top-7 finishes on the year. He’s averaging almost 17 opportunities since Chubb went down, and it’s clear that he’s the top back on this team, even after they added Kareem Hunt. He’s simply been good, and fantasy managers would be well suited to buy him before he goes nuclear over the next three weeks.
#Browns RB Jerome Ford was one of the main catalysts for today’s HUGE win.
He averaged almost 5 ypc, had multiple runs of 12+ yards, and displayed the vision and power that this team has been waiting to see in 2023.
— Matt Wilson (@CoachWilson66) October 15, 2023
Bijan Robinson, RB
Another week, another buy-low opportunity for Bijan. Nobody ever said it wouldn’t be a bumpy ride with the rookie, but I fully believe that he’s got league-winning potential for the rest of the season. It was a rough game for Atlanta’s offense in Week 6, and they ended up having by far their most passing attempts on the season when they couldn’t get anything going on the ground against Washington’s tough run defense. I know it feels like the rookie has been subpar over the past few weeks, but his consistency has been amazing. He’s finished as a RB2 or better in every game this year in PPR formats; that’s an elite level of safety.
The upside case really comes into play with his playoff schedule for the year. Most leagues have their playoffs from Weeks 15-17, and in that stretch he gets to play the Panthers, Colts, and Bears, who are all bottom-ten defenses against fantasy running backs. Rookies also just tend to naturally improve a lot over the back half of the season, so there’s a lot of reason to think that he’s going to be a league winner for the rest of the season. If you have a competing team and can afford to trade for him, I would be working hard to get a deal done for him while he’s still relatively affordable.
Other good buy-low options:
- Jonathan Taylor, RB
- Davante Adams, WR
- Lamar Jackson, QB
Derrick Henry, RB
It’s tough to hear this since Henry has been a fantasy football legend for so long, but he’s clearly taken a step back, and the team knows it. Through the first six weeks of the season this year, he’s averaging just over 16 rushing attempts per game and has finished as a RB1 twice on the season. Through the same stretch last year, he was averaging a whopping 22 carries per game and had three top-8 finishes. He’s been inefficient this year, and the team knows that he can’t handle the same kind of workload that he used to. That’s why rookie Tyjae Spears has eaten into his snap count so much.
So we know that he’s clearly taken a step back, at least from a volume perspective, but he still has been able to finish well in two out of the last three weeks. That leaves the illusion that he could still be the same productive player that he’s always been, which gives fantasy managers a great window to sell him before he comes crashing back to Earth in the coming weeks. His value week-to-week will be entirely dependent on whether he gets a touchdown or not, and that’s not something I want to bet on with this terrible Tennessee offense, especially if QB Ryan Tannehill has to miss time because of his ankle injury.
RB Expected Fantasy Points (based on volume and field location of touches) vs. Actual Fantasy Points[min. 3 games played]
– Alvin Kamara is your new XFP leader
– Never doubt a McDaniel RB
– Barkley/Pollard/Jacobs regress plz
– Derrick Henry's volume fell off the age cliff pic.twitter.com/iNPLpUnAag
— Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) October 17, 2023
Kyren Williams, RB
Williams is a waiver-wire superhero and has been a lifesaver for so many fantasy teams so far this season, and that’s what makes it so painful to put him on this list. The first and most obvious reason that he’s here is because he’s dealing with an ankle injury that will likely sideline him in Week 7. It’s not expected to be a serious issue, but it’s still less than ideal. Outside of that, the main area of concern in my opinion is his involvement as a pass catcher.
An MRI today revealed that Rams’ RB Kyren Williams has a sprained ankle that is expected to sideline him for Sunday’s game vs. the Steelers but is not considered a long-term injury, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 16, 2023
Through the first few weeks of the season, he was involved in the passing game and was targeted frequently in that area. Ever since then, however, it hasn’t been good. He has just five combined targets over the past three weeks, and it’s clear that the return of Cooper Kupp is going to have devastating effects on him in that area moving forward. Running backs who aren’t involved in the passing game usually have to be elite rushers with an elite workload if they want to maintain their production. Williams has gotten over 20 carries in just two games this year and has rushed at a clip of over 4.1 yards per carry in just one game on the season, meaning that he’s far from meeting that criteria. His touchdown numbers will decline, and with his limited involvement in the passing game, I think that he’s due for some major regression for the rest of the season.
Alvin Kamara, RB
I don’t know if this is going to make any sense or not, but Alvin Kamara is the worst “good” player I’ve seen over the past few weeks. From a fantasy perspective, he’s been awesome, finishing as a top-10 RB in every game that he’s had since returning from his suspension, but he hasn’t been nearly as good from a real-life perspective.
Through three games, he’s averaging less than four yards per carry and has failed to log 40 or more receiving yards in every game despite being targeted a whopping 25 times. He hasn’t broken off any of his signature big plays that fantasy managers used to love, and most of his fantasy production has come from New Orleans giving him a bunch of dink-and-dunk targets. He’s catching passes thrown his way at a rate of over 90% on the year, and there’s no way that keeps up. QB Derek Carr has been limited to short passes over the past few weeks because of his shoulder injury, but with that healed now, he can start slinging it again and won’t just keep feeding Kamara. He’s been good, but I don’t think there’s any way he keeps this pace up and should be sold for a better asset by most fantasy managers.
Other good sell-high options:
- Drake London, WR
- Zack Moss, RB
- George Pickens, WR
Leo Sells is a passionate fan for the Patriots and 76ers, and he has been playing fantasy sports for over five years. In addition to writing articles about sports and winning his fantasy football leagues, Leo likes to play sports and spend time with his family and friends doing outdoor activities, such as hiking or fishing.