BUY LOW SELL HIGH WEEK 4
We’ve gotten through the first three weeks of the NFL and fantasy football season, and now the ship is beginning to correct itself. We’re seeing stars like Ja’Marr Chase begin to bounce back and look how we expected them to before the season, but we’re still waiting on the values of a lot of players to return to normal. That makes this early part of the season an intriguing window to make trades, so today, we’ll look at some undervalued players you should be trying to buy and a few players due for negative regression that you should be looking to sell.
Calvin Ridley, WR
It’s crazy how fast fantasy managers have flipped on Calvin Ridley. After Week 1, he was being talked about as a possible top-five guy at the wide receiver position for the rest of the season. Now, after two underwhelming weeks, people are asking if they should even bother starting him anymore. This seems like a pretty big overreaction to me. Yes, he hasn’t looked great the past couple of weeks, but there’s reason to think he will bounce back.
Most notably, his usage has been far from the issue. He has gotten at least 7 targets in every game this season and is averaging over 8.5 targets per game so far this season. His fall in production has directly correlated to the decline in Jacksonville’s offensive output. They’ve only put up a combined 26 points through their last two games, but with an offense that has as many weapons as the Jaguars do and a great young quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, there’s no way that they don’t bounce back in the near future. When this offense gets back on track, I think Ridley’s high usage will show more and he will return to his top-15 trajectory for the rest of the season.
Calvin Ridley week 1: 24.1 PPR Points
Calvin Ridley weeks 2 & 3 COMBINED: 12.1 PPR Points pic.twitter.com/S8xL5lUhlF
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 25, 2023
Mark Andrews, TE
It’s been a frustrating season for Mark Andrews managers so far. He started the season by missing Baltimore’s first game, but then he returned in Week 2 and finished as the TE3 on the week against the Bengals. In Week 3, the roller coaster ride continued in the form of a TE21 finish against a terrible Colts’ defense. This isn’t what you were hoping for when you grabbed him in the third or fourth round of your fantasy leagues.
One of the main things that’s hurting his value is the disorganization of Baltimore’s offense. They’re clearly still trying to figure things out with new OC Todd Monken, and that has led to multiple turnovers and mental errors that aren’t usual for this group. On top of that, they’re missing a number of key starters on the offensive line, which strains QB Lamar Jackson and makes it hard to get anything going through the air. The Ravens’ offense should naturally improve as they get more comfortable in the system and get healthier, and then it will just be a matter of talent and target-earning for Andrews, who is widely regarded as a top-three tight end in the NFL in terms of pure ability.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Jaylen Waddle is currently sitting as the WR59 in overall fantasy points. Definitely less than ideal. He missed Week 3 because of a concussion, so he wasn’t able to partake in the 70-20 beating the Dolphins gave the Broncos. With Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert looking unstoppable on this offense, many are wondering if there’s enough to go around for Waddle. I’m here to tell you that there is.
For the record, we won’t see another game from the Dolphins’ offense like we saw in Week 3. It just won’t happen again. As they continue to play tougher defenses like the Bills, Patriots, Eagles, Jets, and Cowboys, they’re going to have to pass the ball more and won’t sustain such a dominant run game. Last year we saw Hill and Waddle both have big games here and there, and I expect that to be more or less what happens for the rest of the year. He’s too good of a football player to not get the ball and will continue to thrive like he has in the past in this explosive Miami offense.
Other good buy-low options:
- Zay Flowers, WR
- Josh Jacobs, RB
- Cooper Kupp, WR
Zack Moss, RB
I never thought I’d see the day where people are rushing to their waiver wire to bid up Zack Moss and lock him into their starting lineup. But alas, here we are. He’s currently the RB6 in fantasy PPG and has gotten over 20 points in both of his last two matchups. He’s also clearly the top running back on his team right now, so what exactly is my issue with him?
Zack Moss among RBs in week 3:
🔹 122 YDS (T-2nd)
🔹 64 rush YDS after contact (4th)
🔹 9 Missed tackles forced (1st)
🔹 10 Rushes for first down (1st) pic.twitter.com/q6UyIvXj1l
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 25, 2023
I don’t see a world where his production can be anything close to sustainable. He’s averaging a touchdown a game right now, and not only is that going to come down because he’s not good enough to keep up that pace, but he’ll get his rushing work and goal-line carries stolen a lot more when Anthony Richardson returns to the starting lineup. Beyond that, Jonathan Taylor will be eligible to be activated after this week. It remains to be seen if he’ll be ready to go right away, but either way, he should be back sometime in the near future, which will make Moss irrelevant again. Moss has never been a good NFL running back throughout his career, and I don’t want to bet on that starting now, especially with competition from an extremely mobile QB and a star RB in this backfield.
Adam Thielen, WR
Adam Thielen turned the clock back to 2019 on Sunday, catching 11 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks. That’s not something that most people saw coming, but for those who did, they benefited greatly and more than likely won their matchup this week. Unfortunately, this won’t continue for the rest of the year. It took a perfect storm for him to have this game and we won’t be seeing many more like this from him at this point in his career.
The Seahawks were missing their top cornerback in Riq Woolen, who would have been shading the veteran for much of the game and certainly would have been a significant upgrade over whoever he was playing against. Thielen’s uptick in production also came as a result of veteran Andy Dalton being at the helm rather than Bryce Young, but that was only because the rookie had an injury. Once he’s healthy, he should return to the lineup, which is less than ideal for Thielen. He had a good game, but let’s not forget that he’s 33 years old, has shown obvious and significant signs of decline, and plays for one of the worst offenses in football. Sell him now while the hype is still alive.
George Kittle, TE
Fantasy managers finally got a long-awaited “boom” game from George Kittle, if you can even call it that. He finished as the TE3 in PPR leagues, but what made the outing reassuring for his season-long outlook was the team-high seven receptions he got. That’s nice and all, but he won’t keep it up. He only got that much work because Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) was inactive, and when he’s healthy and on the field, Kittle is usually the fourth receiving option on this team. That’s not what you’re looking for from an elite tight end.
Last year, Kittle didn’t have even a single game with 9+ targets from Brock Purdy. This is clearly an outlier, but it opens up a good window for you to sell him high after a nice week. Beyond his overproduction this week, he’s super volatile on a week-to-week basis and isn’t someone that you should really feel comfortable locking into your starting lineup.
Other good sell-high options:
- Kyren Williams, RB
- Travis Etienne, RB
- Kenneth Walker, RB
Leo Sells is a passionate fan for the Patriots and 76ers, and he has been playing fantasy sports for over five years. In addition to writing articles about sports and winning his fantasy football leagues, Leo likes to play sports and spend time with his family and friends doing outdoor activities, such as hiking or fishing.