Buy Low Sell High

Fantasy Football Buy Low Sell High Week 3

Josh Jacobs

BUY LOW SELL HIGH Week 3

We are officially through the first two weeks of the NFL season, and they’ve been quite interesting so far. Big names like Ja’Marr Chase and Josh Jacobs are failing to live up to expectations, while players that got almost no hype in the offseason, like Puka Nacua and Hunter Henry are dominating. It can be hard to navigate, but today, we’ll be looking at three players you can buy at a value and three that you should look to sell while they’re still worth something.

 

Buy

Josh Jacobs, RB

Jacobs has been one of the biggest disappointments through the season’s first two weeks. He has 46 rushing yards combined throughout the first two outings and is coming off of a Week 2 performance where he had negative rushing yards. It’s been a bumpy road to say the least, but it should get better in the near future. The Raiders had to play the Broncos and the Bills in their first two games, both of which are perennially good against the run. Close games or playing from behind like that aren’t good game scripts for Jacobs to get a lot of carries either, but games against the Steelers, Packers, and Bears in the near future should allow for him to get some more work.

https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1703623173588046297

 

I know it’s easy for fantasy managers to panic about his lowly 9.5 fantasy points per game through the first couple of games, but take a deep breath. Last year, he got off to an even worse start, averaging just 8.7 points in the first two games. But, as we all know, he took off after that and ended the season as a top-three RB. He held out for a lot of training camp, so it’s reasonable to assume he needs a couple of weeks to knock the rust off. His value is lower than it’s been in over a year, so if you’re going to buy in, now’s the time to do it.

A.J. Brown, WR

It hasn’t been pretty for A.J. Brown through the first two weeks of the season. He’s sitting at just over 100 receiving yards combined between the two games and has yet to score a touchdown. His teammate Devonta Smith has been severely outperforming him, and that’s leading fantasy managers to panic about Brown and his role on this offense.

I’m here to tell you, it will get better. Philadelphia’s offense looks a little rusty after losing OC Shane Steichen this offseason, and they’ll naturally get better over the course of the season as they get more comfortable and confident in the new system. The touchdowns will come for A.J. Brown sooner or later, and he’ll go back to having those top-three weeks that we’re all used to. A rough start to the season leaves his values way lower than it was during draft season just a few weeks ago, so now is the time to capitalize and buy in on Brown’s top-ten talent.

Joe Mixon, RB

Usually, Joe Mixon just volumes his way to a good fantasy outing, but that hasn’t been the case through the first two games of the season. The sample size is very small, but at least for right now, he’s averaging close to three less touches per game than he was last year. That seems pretty concerning until you take a few things into account.

There are a few differences between this year and last year, and one of the most notable ones is that Mixon actually looks good this year. He’s been efficient on the ground and has been one of the bright spots on this offense, which is a breath of fresh air compared to what we’ve seen on the field from him the past couple of seasons. He’s doing this despite Cincinnati’s offense being extremely underwhelming overall, so there’s reason to be optimistic that he’ll be awesome when they get things figured out and get back to giving him his usual workload.

 

Other good buy-low options:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
  • Jaylen Waddle, WR
  • Breece Hall, RB

 

Sell

Drake London, WR

Watching the pendulum swing in fantasy football is funny. After Week 1, everyone was claiming that Drake London was a bust when he failed to log even a single reception. Now, after Week 2, the narrative is that Week 1 was a fluke and he’s primed for a big season. So which is it?

The way I look at it, it’s going to be both at the exact same time. How is this possible? Well, he’s going to have some big games like he did on Sunday, but he will also have plenty of dismal games like Week 1. The Falcons are a super run-heavy team, so London’s week-to-week value will be almost impossible to predict, as Atlanta’s game plan is almost impossible to predict. If I owned some London shares, I’d be looking to sell high after a big Week 2 for someone that will be more consistent week-to-week.

Rachaad White, RB

I’m fully aware that this one could come back to bite me, but I’m not fully sold on White. I’m glad he was able to bounce back and have a good Week 2 after a very poor performance in Week 1, but I’m not sure that he will be as good as people think for the rest of the season. One of the main concerns with him heading into draft season was his inefficiency as a runner, whether that be because of his own talent or because of his offensive line. So far in 2023, he’s averaging a horrific 3.3 yards per carry, and that was against two of the worst run defenses they will play all year in the Vikings and the Bears.

Yes, his involvement in the passing game was reassuring in Week 2, but I don’t see a world where he continues his 100% catch rate. Because of his inefficiency as a rusher and his mediocre involvement in the passing game, he’s going to be super reliant on touchdowns to have good games. This Buccaneers offense isn’t bad, but they certainly aren’t going to be a powerhouse. I don’t like his touchdown dependency and I’d be looking to trade him for a solid RB2 or flex that’ll put up more consistent and efficient production.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB

Robinson has been one of the biggest surprises through the first two weeks of the NFL season. He’s currently the RB3 overall in PPR scoring, and we all know that isn’t going to stick the entire season. He had two easy matchups to start the season with the Cardinals and the Broncos, but things will begin to get more difficult with the Bills and the Eagles coming up in the next two weeks. He was already averaging under 4 yards per attempt in the first two games, so I’m scared to see his efficiency against these powerhouse defenses.

The reason that he’s been so productive so far is because he’s overproducing in touchdowns. He already has three on the year, which ties how many he had in 12 games last year. He isn’t going to continue that pace the entire year. Not to mention, Washington will be playing from behind in a lot of these upcoming games, which means less rushing work and more receiving work for Washington’s RBs, which has never been his forte. If you consider all of the red flags that he has with his efficiency, touchdown regression, poor upcoming matchups, and lack of pass catching work, you have plenty of reasons to sell the current RB3 while he still holds real value.

Other good sell-high options:

  • Christian Kirk, WR
  • Kenneth Walker, RB
  • DJ Moore, WR
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