Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Week 7

Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Week 7 4

Fantasy Football Running Back By Committee Review

With running back by committees (RBBC) becoming all the rage in the NFL, it is becoming that much more vital to choose the correct running back for your fantasy team. Below you can find the most requested RBBC’s broken down statistically. The goal here is to go beyond who scored the most fantasy points last week and to delve into who was on the field more and who was a larger part of the offense.

Before we jump into it, a quick note on the data and terms used. All of the raw data is available at many free websites, but FantasyData is where I have collected the majority of data before analyzing it further. I will be looking at the percentage of a team’s total offensive plays that a player was the focal point of the play (either via handoff or passing target). This will be referred to as % of Offense. This stat was greater than 10% more correlated with PPR points than typical snap percentages through the 2019 season thus far. I also used FantasyData’s Fantasy Points per 100 snaps to help compare running backs as if they had received the same number of snaps. This statistic helps to answer the question, “what if this secondary RB got as many snaps as the lead RB?”

Season Long Work Horses

Name Team GMS SNAP % SNAPS/GM % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Christian McCaffrey CAR 6 96.10% 65.3 42% 181.3 46.2
Le’Veon Bell NYJ 5 92% 57.4 38% 82.5 28.7
Leonard Fournette JAX 6 91.40% 62 37% 107.3 28.8
Nick Chubb CLE 6 76.60% 51.2 35% 127.5 41.5
Dalvin Cook MIN 6 68.10% 43.7 35% 136.6 52.1

PPR / 100 Snaps – PPR Points Divided by 100 snaps

The same five Season Long Work Horses are back again. These are the studs that you want in your line up regardless of who they are facing because they have such a safe floor. Honorable Mentions are the same from last week with some slight jostling in positioning (Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara and Chris Carson 32%, Derrick Henry 31%, Marlon Mack and Josh Jacobs 30%). The real power of looking at these guys through % of Offense is that each of these guys in a top 20 RB on the season in PPR scoring. Yes, that includes the Bell, Mack, and Jacobs who each have already taken their bye weeks. I can’t say it enough, “start your studs!”

Week 5 Work Horses

Name Team SNAP % Plays Used % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Leonard Fournette JAX 93.2% 26 44% 17.8 32.4
Adrian Peterson WAS 62.7% 25 42% 15.6 42.2
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 91.5% 34 41% 26.2 34.9
Christian McCaffrey CAR 97% 27 41% 21.7 33.9
James Conner PIT 50% 23 38% 30.9 103
Nick Chubb CLE 85.5% 26 38% 28.9 49

Adrian Peterson is proving that age is just a number! It doesn’t matter the Skins were going up against the lowly Dolphins.  With Chris Thompson out with turf toe, AP should see some more work but he goes up against, my vote for best defense in the league, the 49ers in Week 7. James Conner is also new to this list. Conner and the Steelers surprised the Chargers in Week 6 but will have to wait till Week 8 for his next game, a cupcake matchup against the Dolphins. Fournette, Zeke, McCaffrey and, Chubb basically live in this list and will for the foreseeable future. Two Honorable Mentions were Devonta Freeman and Benny Snell Jr.. Both of these two contributed to over 30% of their respective teams offense. If you read last week, you know I am not a Freeman believer and he proved me totally wrong this week. The Falcons go up against the Rams in Week 7 and will test the new defense put together in L.A.. I still doubt Freeman but if he can put out a similar performance in Week 7 that he did in Week 6, I might have to change my mind. Snell on the other hand seems to be more of a flash in the pan. I will be keeping an eye on him this week. If he pushes Conner for touches in Week 8 like he did in Week 6, he will be in the Week 9 review.

Denver Broncos

RBBC Review

Name Team SNAP % Plays Used % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Phillip Lindsay DEN 46.8% 18 29% 15.5 53.4
Royce Freeman DEN 61.3% 16 26% 12.6 33.2

The Broncos have been a surprise over the last two weeks winning games that they were either the underdogs or barely favored to win. This week they take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night and I feel confident rolling out both of these options. Lindsay has been getting more work on the ground and the Broncos will hope to pound the ball to run the clock and keep the football out of Patrick Mahomes hands. Freeman has been getting more work in the passing game and considering the Broncos will probably be playing catch-up there will be plenty of receiving opportunities. If only someone could pull away with the lead role here you would have a superstar fantasy player. Unfortunately, this appears to be a locked in RBBC.

 

Detriot Lions

RBBC Review

Name Team SNAP % Plays Used % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Kerryon Johnson DET 72.9% 17 29% 14.1 32.8
JD McKissic DET 23.7% 6 10% 3.1 22.1
Nick Bawden DET 37.3% 1 2% 0 0
Ty Johnson DET 3.4% 0 0% 0 0

This is less about being an RBBC and more about finding the next potential handcuff. Kerryon Johnson has had the Detroit backfield pretty locked up all season. In fact, Johnson has the twelfth highest % of Total offense so far on the season with 29%. He keeps just barely missing the cut for Honorable Mention. The story here is more about the decent of Ty Johnson and the ascent of JD McKissic. Ty Johnson has had two weeks with over 20% of the team’s snaps but those came in Week 2 and 3. Week 4, Ty Johnson saw less than 15% of snaps and Week 6 he saw less than 4% of snaps! On the flip side, Mckissic has had over 20% of the snaps over the Lions last two games. If you were holding out hope for Ty you might find yourself burning a roster spot for the rest of the season or until he is fully faded out. If you have a deep bench or feel the need to ensure Kerryon, pick up McKissic.

Green Bay Packers

RBBC Review

Name Team SNAP % Plays Used % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Jamaal Williams GB 52.7% 19 26% 23.6 60.5
Aaron Jones GB 48.6% 18 24% 8 22.2
Dan Vitale GB 13.5% 0 0% 0 0

Why Green Bay? Why do you need to do this to fantasy owners? Aaron Jones was a beast last week and showed he can carry a full workload. Then you turn around and give him an almost perfect split with Jamaal Williams. Why? The biggest issue is that Williams outscored Jones by almost 14 PPR points. What once seemed like a prime opportunity for Jones to seize a workhorse title is now a hot-hand RBBC (which is the worst kind for fantasy football!).  I still like Jones’ play better than Williams and feel that Jones will have more value rest-of-season. In Week 7, the Pack play the Raiders, who have only allowed Royce Freeman (Week 1) and Dalvin Cook (Week 3) to rush for over 50 yards. I am hesitantly starting Jones this week and probably sitting Williams unless hamstrung by bye weeks or injuries.

Los Angeles Rams

RBBC Review

Name Team SNAP % Plays Used % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Malcolm Brown LAR 67.9% 11 21% 4 11.1
Darrell Henderson LAR 32.1% 8 15% 5.8 34.1

There is a possibility that Todd Gurley could miss Week 7 with the same quad injury that held him out of Week 6. Last week, the Rams went up against the very tough San Fran defense and were held to only 7 points. With Gurley out, Malcolm Brown got the start and the significant amount of carries. However, Henderson got two targets (to Brown’s zero) and looked much more explosive with the ball in his hands. Henderson averaged 6.5 yards per carry compared to Brown’s 3.6. To add to the rookie hype around Henderson possibly winning the backup role, Brown is nursing an ankle injury. This could be nothing or it could be the door opening wide for Henderson. I hope it’s the latter!

San Francisco 49ers

RBBC Review

Name Team SNAP % Plays Used % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Tevin Coleman SF 55.1% 21 27% 14.1 32.8
Matt Breida SF 35.9% 17 22% 10.3 36.8
Raheem Mostert SF 9% 4 5% 1.3 18.6

Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Week 7 5Despite the difference in snap %, the only major difference between Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida was the Coleman touchdown. The Rams actually did a decent job containing the creative San Fran run game to less than 100 yards on the ground. I fully expect the fortunes to turn in Week 7 when the 49er’s go to play the Washington Redskins. I am starting both Breida and Coleman in this juicy matchup. If all things stay equal, it looks like Coleman has the most value rest-of-season. However, I am going to keep Breida (and even Mostert if I have roster space) as insurance against another Coleman injury.

Miami Dolphins

RBBC Review

Name Team SNAP % Plays Used % offense PPR Pts PPR / 100 Snaps
Kenyan Drake MIA 60.5% 19 25% 13 28.3
Mark Walton MIA 42.1% 12 16% 12.5 39.1
Kalen Ballage MIA 5.3% 3 4% 6.7 167.5

As requested by @THEffVigilante on Twitter, the Dolphins breakdown. Kenyan Drake is the guy in Miami but it is interesting to see Mark Walton getting some work here. Walton has enough talent to get people diving deep for fantasy talent to get excited. But, he also gets in enough trouble that he will probably never get a chance at a lead role. Ballage, on the other hand, has been taking a hit in snaps and usage. Let’s be honest, if you starting the Dolphins running game (ANYONE), you are grasping for straws. But, I do it for the fans. So, if you are forcing me to pick, Drake is the play. I do like the upside of Walton and will watch him but I will most likely not like what I see.

There it is another RBBC Review. I hope you enjoyed it! If you did, let me know. If you didn’t, let me know what could be better. See you next week, same bat-time, same bat-place.

About the author

Avatar

Seth Keller

When Seth was staying home to care for his newborn twin boys, he decided to take his passion for football and fifteen years of fantasy football experience to the next level. This was the birth of "the at-home dad". For the past three years, Seth has been writing and podcast about all aspects of football. He writes the weekly RBBC article as well as being a co-host of the Fantasy FAQs podcast.

Add Comment

Click here to post a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.