Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Week 11

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Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Week 11

This season is flying by – Fantasy playoffs are only a couple of weeks away, and the best weapon in the playoffs is knowledge! It’s also the time of year to get last-minute trades locked in to make sure your team is primed for the championship. Having a stable of running backs that will put up consistent numbers is a must-have during this pivotal time. You want a player that is not just on the field to be a major part of his team’s offense. The data below focuses on the involvement a player has overall in the offense – % offense. This is more important than just the number of snaps or the number of touches a back gets. This shows how much the team is feeding him the ball as opposed to other players. Statistically, % offense is more correlated with fantasy points scored than Snap % or # of touches by over 10%. I also include PPR Points per 100 snaps from Fantasydata.com to help show what a back could be earning if handling the same number of snaps as another back. Without further ado…The RBBC Review Week 11!

Season Long Workhorses

Rank	Name	Team	GMS	SNAP %	SNAPS / GM	% OFF	PPR Pts
1	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	9	93.4	64.4	39%	272.5
2	Dalvin Cook	MIN	10	70.6	47.8	37%	239.5
3	Leonard Fournette	JAX	9	88.9	62.4	36%	156.6
4	Le’Veon Bell	NYJ	9	89.1	56.3	35%	134.5
5	Nick Chubb	CLE	9	73.6	50.2	34%	165.5
6	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	9	81.7	57.6	33%	158
7	Josh Jacobs	OAK	9	56.4	36	33%	150.3
8	Chris Carson	SEA	10	74.9	53.8	33%	159.2
9	Derrick Henry	TEN	10	60.5	39.4	31%	170.9
10	Marlon Mack	IND	9	59.9	43	30%	114.9
11	Aaron Jones	GB	10	59.4	40.1	27%	211.3
12	David Montgomery	CHI	9	58	37.3	26%	105.9

Here are the top-12 running backs in terms of % of total offense (% OFF). These are the guys that you want to target in trades and make sure you playing on a consistent basis. David Montgomery has been a pleasant surprise being able to keep his involvement in the offense despite his dud of a game this last week. Bell has finally had a pair of productive fantasy outings and is back to being an everyday play in fantasy football. Of the 12 RBs list here all but two are in the top-12 in fantasy points. Those two are Marlon Mack and David Montgomery, but both are within the top-24 RBs in fantasy points.

Atlanta Falcons

RBBC Review

Name	Team	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Used	% OFF	PPR Pts	PPR Pts
Brian Hill	ATL	NO	50.6	22	28%	14.1	35.2
Devonta Freeman	ATL	NO	38	14	18%	7.8	26
Kenjon Barner	ATL	NO	13.9	1	1%	1.2	10.9

PPR Points = PPR Pts / 100 Snaps

Brian Hill could be the biggest waiver wire add of the playoff stretch. Ito Smith (*tear*) has been placed on IR and Davonta Freeman has to have an MRI on his foot and will probably be out for a couple of weeks. If you watched my video from the preseason I was excited for this opportunity to happen given the injury history of Davonta Freeman, just I thought Ito would be the benefactor. Anyways. Brian Hill is lined up for the full workload and goes up against a porous run defense in Carolina. I’m not a huge fan of Hill but the stars have aligned for him to have a good game so hopefully you snagged him off the waiver wire.

Buffalo Bills

RBBC Review

Name	Team	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Used	% OFF	PPR Pts	PPR Pts
Devin Singletary	BUF	CLE	66.7	15	22%	8	17.4
Frank Gore	BUF	CLE	33.3	6	9%	2.6	11.3
Patrick DiMarco	BUF	CLE	15.9	2	3%	1.4	12.7

Oh, Devin Singletary. I waited so patiently for you to get the amount of work you got against the Redskins and was so excited for you against the Browns. Then, you disappoint with only 8 PPR points. Although this hurts, Singletary is the direction that this team needs to go. Gore had only 5 rushing attempts to Singletary’s 8 but the difference maker is the seven targets that Singletary got – unfortunately he only brought in 3. Singletary’s dud could be the type of inconsistency that brings his value down just enough for you to be able to snag for the playoff run. I fully endorse making a move to get him.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RBBC Review

Name	Team	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Used	% OFF	PPR Pts	PPR Pt
Ronald Jones II	TB	ARI	47.1	19	22%	22.6	56.5
Peyton Barber	TB	ARI	25.9	12	14%	11.7	53.2
Dare Ogunbowale	TB	ARI	25.9	3	4%	5.4	24.5

I’ll admit it, I was wrong this week in telling people to sit Ronald Jones II behind a bunch of guys that RoJo outscored this week. Now that that is out of the way, I still don’t like RoJo. He was 11-29-1 this week rushing but really popped in the receiving game with eight receptions on eight targets for 77 yards. Peyton Barber did better on in the rushing game than RoJo but only logged a single catch on a single target.  This week I think it is fair to sit both options in Tampa since they will be going up against New Orleans top-five defense against running backs. If you are forced to start one of these guys, RoJo is the would-be my pick due to his explosiveness and potential in the passing game. However, I would expect another eight targets as that was only three less than what he had all season up till Week 10.

Green Bay Packers

RBBC Review

Name	Team	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Used	% OFF	PPR Pts	PPR Pt
Aaron Jones	GB	CAR	50	13	19%	27.3	80.3
Jamaal Williams	GB	CAR	50	14	21%	6.3	18.5
Dan Vitale	GB	CAR	19.1	1	1%	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

RBBC Review

Name	Team	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Used	% OFF	PPR Pts	PPR Pt
Damien Williams	KC	TEN	73.2	24	29%	13.9	23.2
Darrel Williams	KC	TEN	20.7	3	4%	2.5	14.7
Darwin Thompson	KC	TEN	6.1	2	2%	1.7	34

I am grouping these two together because they illustrate the same point. In Green Bay, Aaron Jones is solidified as the main option and in Kansas City, Damien Williams is solidified as the main option. Jamaal Williams actually got a high percentage of Green Bay’s offense but Jones is by far the better option for fantasy. Both Williams and Jones got the same number of attempts (13) but Jones outpaced Williams by 30 yards and three touchdowns! In Kansas City, Damien Williams was far and away the main guy, especially with LeSean McCoy out with an injury. Unfortunately for Williams’ owners, He wasn’t able to do much with his opportunities. He posted a 19-77-0 rushing line and 5-of-5 for 32 receiving line. He also coughed up a costly fumble. I have been a consistent voice in saying that I am not a Damien Williams fan. However, a touchdown would have made for a great outing this week and given the Kansas City offense, touchdowns should be coming. I’m firing up Aaron Jones everywhere, sitting Jamaal Williams, and, as long as he isn’t my RB1,  I’m firing up Damien Williams.

Bonus:

Oakland Raiders

RBBC Review

Name	Team	OPP	SNAP %	Plays Used	% OFF	PPR Pts	PPR Pt
Josh Jacobs	OAK	LAC	51.7	21	36%	19.1	63.7
Jalen Richard	OAK	LAC	37.9	6	10%	8.3	37.7
Alec Ingold	OAK	LAC	20.7	2	3%	8.2	68.3
Deandre Washington	OAK	LAC	10.3	3	5%	3.9	65

This may be questionable to most given the sheer dominance of Josh Jacobs, but I am throwing Jalen Richard out there as an insurance policy. I am not predicting and injury for Josh Jacobs, nor am I predicting a downward spiral for him. What I am saying is it is a good idea to hedge your bets on a rookie running back. Over the past few years, we have seen how the adjustment from 11 games in college to 16 games in the pros can lead to fatigue in rookie running backs. Richard has been able to handle a full workload in replacement of the number-one back and has seen a resurgence in his usage. I am advocating for Jalen Richard as a sneaky handcuff play that could payout huge dividends if Jacobs is to befall the rookie runningback wall.

And there you have it, folks. The RBBC Review for Week 11! Let me know what you think and if you have any RB Sit/Start questions either here or on Twitter @fftheathomedad.