Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Playoff Push

Fantasy Breakdown: RBBC Review Playoff Push 7

Fantasy Football playoffs are here! Hopefully, you are one of the happy few that get to play on to the championship! This will be the last installment of the RBBC Review until the end of the 2019 season. Since I will be focusing on my playoff runs, I will try to give you a few guys to look at for the next three weeks as you make your playoff run.

The data below focuses on the involvement a player has overall in the offense – % offense. This is more important than just the number of snaps or the number of touches a back gets. This shows how much the team is feeding him the ball as opposed to other players. Statistically, % offense is more correlated with fantasy points scored than Snap % or # of touches by over 10%. I also include PPR Points per 100 snaps (in tables as Pts / 100) from Fantasydata.com to help show what a back could be earning if handling the same number of snaps as another back. Without further ado…The RBBC Review Week 14!

Season Long Workhorses

Name Team GMS SNAP % SNAPS/GM % of OfF PPR Pts
Christian McCaffrey CAR 12 94.5 66.7 39% 279.1
Dalvin Cook MIN 12 69.6 46.1 35% 221.6
Leonard Fournette JAX 12 88.3 62.8 35% 159.3
Nick Chubb CLE 12 70.7 48.9 34% 178
Derrick Henry TEN 12 62.7 39.9 33% 206
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 12 83.4 59.1 33% 175.6
Le’Veon Bell NYJ 12 83 53.8 32% 123.2
Josh Jacobs OAK 12 55.8 35.5 32% 160.7
Chris Carson SEA 12 71.3 51 32% 154.8
Joe Mixon CIN 12 58.7 40.2 26% 113.3
Phillip Lindsay DEN 12 49.8 32.2 26% 124.9
Aaron Jones GB 12 58.5 40.1 26% 183.2

These guys are the top-12 running backs in terms of % of Offense. They are also the only twelve runningbacks that contribute over 25% of their respective teams’ offensive plays. They are all in the top-20 RBs for PPR points and are eight of the top-10 RBs for PPR points. Bottom line, they are guys that have probably been on your roster to make your run to the playoffs and will vital parts in your potential run to the chip. I’m not taking these guys out of my starting lineup unless it is for another one of these guys. As the old adage says, “Start your Studs!”

Week 13 RBBC Review

Arizona Cardinals

RBBC Review

Name Team OPP SNAP % Plays Used % OFF PPR Pts Pts / 100
Kenyan Drake ARI LAR 79.7 18 28% 5.1 10
David Johnson ARI LAR 23.4 6 9% 2.4 16

The Cards backfield was a question mark going into Week 13 because David Johnson has been an enigma this season, Drake was acquired midseason and shown well, and Chase Edmunds was supposedly back from injury. Well, Drake answered the question. He may not have had an outstanding day, the Rams smoked the Cards 34-7, but he showed that he was the central guy in that backfield. Drake was used on 18 plays where DJ was used on only 6 plays and Edmunds didn’t even touch the turf. DJ is a cut candidate if you haven’t already. Edmunds is a watch-and-see player on the waiver wire. And, Drake is a flex play at best with a tough schedule against the Steelers, Browns, and the Seahawks to round out most fantasy playoffs.

San Fransisco 49ers

RBBC Review

Name Team OPP SNAP % Plays Used % OFF PPR Pts Pts / 100
Raheem Mostert SF BAL 73.7 21 37% 21.4 51
Tevin Coleman SF BAL 17.5 6 11% 1.5 15
Jeffery Wilson SF BAL 8.8 1 2% 0.7 14
Kyle Juszczyk SF BAL 45.6 0 0% 0 0

So, Raheem Mostert is the best back in San Fransisco (I’m not even sure if that is a statement or a question).  If you had told me that in August, I would have fallen off my chair laughing. Everyone in San Fran has dealt with some injury or another but Coleman was healthy going into this game and Matt Breida was questionable but ended up not playing. Breida has been practicing for Week 14 already though.  If Mostert is available, grab him ASAP! He could be a league winner that you pick up off the waiver-wire a la Damien Williams last year. The 49ers love to run and involve their backs all over the field. If this benching is a sign of things to come for Coleman, Mostert could be a great plug and play option. I am not cutting Coleman yet because this could be a “message benching” and he could regain starter status at any time. I am NOT starting him though. Breida is in a similar boat where I will hold him but not start him due to the number of variables that revolve around him right now. Mostert is a flex play for me in Week 14 and if he holds as the lead back, he is a must-start in Weeks 15 (Falcons) and 16 (Rams).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RBBC Review

Name Team OPP SNAP % Plays Used % OFF PPR Pts Pts / 100
Peyton Barber TB JAX 39.5 17 22% 18.4 61.3
Dare Ogunbowale TB JAX 30.3 3 4% 1.2 5.2
TJ Logan TB JAX 6.6 1 1% 0.2 4
Ronald Jones II TB JAX 27.6 6 8% 0.8 3.8

This is a bit vindicating for me since I have been advising against Ronald Jones the past couple weeks and some people were taking early victory laps. Week 13 was a victory lap for me as I advised people against RoJo again and he was benched for missing a pass pro assignment. Now that can’t be expected every week and yes, taking a victory lap for that is a little childish, but this week should show the volatility of this Tampa Bay backfield. To be clear, I don’t like the need to play any back from Tampa Bay, however, if you need to, I am perfectly fine with rolling RoJo or Peyton Barber in a high-upside flex play in the Playoffs after this week. Week 14 Tampa hosts the Colts who are the 6th best in stop opposing fantasy RBs. Weeks 15 and 16 though are against lowly Lions and Texans who are both top-5 in giving up points to opposing fantasy RBs.

Kansas City Chiefs

RBBC Review

Name Team OPP SNAP % Plays Used % OFF PPR Pts Pts / 100
Darwin Thompson KC OAK 35.8 11 16% 10.4 43.3
Darrel Williams KC OAK 26.9 8 12% 7.6 42.2
LeSean McCoy KC OAK 35.8 8 12% 9 37.5
Anthony Sherman KC OAK 9 2 3% 0.7 11.7

Kansas City has been either in or asked to be in almost every edition of the RBBC Review this season. They are a high powered offense that typically leads to RB success. The only problem is there are too many RBs to chose from on any given week. Week 13 was no different and perhaps in more concerning for the fantasy owner of any of these RBs. There was an almost perfect split between the top three (yes, 3!) guys in KC, Darwin Thompson, 11 plays used, came out ahead of Darrel Williams and LeSean  McCoy who both had 8 plays used. Similar to Mostert above, I like the league-winner upside of Darwin Thompson. He is going to be super cheap if not this week, almost assuredly after a tough matchup against New England Week 14. Although, the biggest problem with all of the KC backfield is the tough schedule that they play through the fantasy Playoffs. New England is the toughest challenge but things don’t get much easier in Weeks 15 (Broncos) and 16 (Bears) against middle-of-the-road defenses. I believe the Chiefs will score in Weeks 15 and 16 but I doubt it will be much by the running backs. Unless I’m desperate or unless Thompson breaks out, I am keeping all Chiefs running backs on my bench in the Playoffs.

Washington Redskins

RBBC Review

Name Team OPP SNAP % Plays Used % OFF PPR Pts Pts / 100
Adrian Peterson WAS CAR 35.9 14 22% 15.9 69.1
Derrius Guice WAS CAR 29.7 13 20% 25.7 135.3
Chris Thompson WAS CAR 35.9 5 8% 2.9 12.6
Michael Burton WAS CAR 10.9 0 0% 0 0

Guice is finally becoming the fantasy running back that people have waited for since last year. Unfortunately, Adrian Peterson is still battling, kicking and screaming, against father time. Guice had almost as many plays as AP but was much more effective with his touches as can easily be seen by his PPR points per 100 snaps (135.3!). Hopefully, you hung on to Guice during his IR stint because he has a great matchup this week against Green Bay and although Philly looks like a tough matchup next week, the last competent back they faced, Rashad Penny, went for 129 and a score. And then Washington gets the New York Giants for the fantasy championships.  Guice is set up perfectly to round out the season in top form and I am starting him as high as an RB2 in the fantasy Playoffs. All-Day AP, on the other hand, is a player that I am only starting if I need a safe floor because that is the most I think he offers at this point.

Time to win that championship! I will see you next year with more RBBC Review and all year round on Twitter @fftheathomedad.

About the author

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Seth Keller

When Seth was staying home to care for his newborn twin boys, he decided to take his passion for football and fifteen years of fantasy football experience to the next level. This was the birth of "the at-home dad". For the past three years, Seth has been writing and podcast about all aspects of football. He writes the weekly RBBC article as well as being a co-host of the Fantasy FAQs podcast.

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