Daily Fantasy

FanDuel Week 3: GPP Tournament Plays

Jordan Matthews

NFL DFS: FanDuel Week 3 Tournament Pivots

[the_ad id=”63198″]In daily fantasy football, it is essential to find value for your lineups. If we want to be able to afford the top dollar names like Drew Brees and DeAngelo Williams, we’ll inevitably need to balance our lineup with less expensive players who provide upside.

There are certain value thresholds that we need from these players in order to cash in, and more importantly, win tournaments and larger leagues.

For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (for example, Melvin Gordon is $7,100 this week and would need to score 21.3 FanDuel points to justify his usage).

If these high-upside plays are also low-owned, we now have an elite GPP tournament play. Each week, we’ll look at who the most popular plays will be and how we can pivot away from them without losing upside.

Here are the top tournament plays for Week 3.

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These quarterbacks will be less than five percent owned:

Tyrod Taylor

$7300 | BUF +3.5, 47

Tyrod TaylorAgainst a tough defense in the Arizona Cardinals, no one will be on Tyrod Taylor this weekend. So we know he’ll be low-owned, but what other factors provide optimism? For one, the Bills have had 10 days to prepare for this game as they played on Thursday night in Week 2. Two, the Cardinals are traveling across the country for an early start time. Lastly, despite receiving just 22 percent of the spread bets at Sportsbook.ag, the Bills have moved from 6-point underdogs to 3.5-point underdogs. Sharp bettors recognize the perfect spot for the Bills here, and you should take advantage, too.

Kirk Cousins

$7200 | WAS +3.5, 45.5

To say Kirk Cousins has played poorly this season would be a major understatement. Through two games, he’s averaged just 15.8 FanDuel points per game while throwing three interceptions with just one touchdown. Now, he faces a Giants’ defense that held Drew Brees in check last week. OK, so we know he’ll be low-owned, but where’s the upside? Cousins’ salary has dropped $700, and when a QB’s salary has dropped $500-plus in September over the last two seasons, he’s reached tournament value 30 percent of the time. That probability combined with his ownership is an excellent combination to allow you to skyrocket the GPP leaderboards.

Carson Wentz

$7200 | PHI +3.5, 46.5

Carson Wentz, while having not been asked to do a lot on offense, has taken care of the ball through two games this season — he’s yet to commit a turnover. But because of the game script in each of the first two games, he hasn’t needed to air the ball out. But this week against the explosive Steelers’ offense, as a 3.5-point road underdog, Wentz may be forced to pass in the latter part of the game. Pittsburgh has allowed 300-yard passers in each of the first two games this season and Wentz will get the opportunity to make it three in a row. Sharp bettors are fans of Wentz this week, too — the Eagles have only received 22 percent of the bets this weekend, but the line has dropped from +5.5 to +3.5.

Consider these cheap running backs with multi-touchdown upside:

Jay Ajayi

$5700 | MIA -9.5, 42

Jay AjayiRunning back Arian Foster has been ruled out for Sunday’s game versus the Browns with a groin strain, leaving Jay Ajayi as the lead back in the Dolphins’ offense. Assuming he doesn’t fumble away the opportunity, Ajayi will be the goal line back on offense with a Vegas implied team total of 26 points — fourth highest on the board in Week 3. Ajayi is also a Gridiron 3X this week, and while he has a different salary with various scoring on DraftKings, we project him to hit value on FanDuel, as well.

Matt Asiata

$4600 | MIN +7, 43

Vikings’ running back Jerrick McKinnon was named the starter this week after Adrian Peterson underwent knee surgery, but he won’t handle the full load. Matt Asiata will split carries, get goal line looks, and even have a role in the passing game. Asiata has a nose for the end zone, as he produced three multiple-touchdown games in 2014 during Peterson’s suspension. He also has 17 career games with at least two receptions. In a game where the Vikings will likely be trailing late in the game, look for Asiata to get plenty of targets out of the backfield. He’ll be far less owned than McKinnon, but will see similar receiving numbers and has a much better chance to score touchdowns.

 

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Pivot from highly-owned Travis Benjamin ($6900), Willie Snead ($7500), and Phillip Dorsett ($6000):

Jordan Matthews

$6900 | PHI +3.5, 46.5

Jordan MatthewsA natural choice to stack with Wentz in GPPs, Jordan Matthews is a target machine for the Eagles. Despite Philadelphia passing the ball just 71 times, Matthews has seen 23 targets through two games, good for 4th in the NFL. If you don’t want to do the math, that’s a whopping 32.4 percent target share. Seeing as how the Eagles will likely pass more in this game than they have in each of their first two contests, Matthews could be in line for a monster game. Most DFSers will roster Travis Benjamin at this price after his two touchdown performance last week, but Matthews has just as much upside for a lower ownership.

T.Y. Hilton

$7400 | IND -2.5, 51.5

Of course, Willie Snead will be highly owned this week. He’s scored a touchdown in two straight games and will be playing in primetime on Monday night against the Falcons’ pass defense that has allowed five passing touchdowns already this season. But Snead missed some practice time this week with a toe injury and will hard-pressed to repeat his early success with a number of mouths to feed in New Orleans. Meanwhile, T.Y. Hilton has dominated targets in the Colts’ passing game(23), more than doubling the next closest receiver. He’ll line up mostly in the slot on Sunday and avoid Chargers’ shutdown corner Jason Verrett. When choosing between two receivers (Snead and Hilton), give me the one with the higher target share.

Tavon Austin

$5900 | LA +5, 41.5

Speaking of the Colts’ passing game, Donte Moncrief is sidelined with a fractured scapula, making Phillip Dorsett the next man up and a popular tournament play this weekend. However, he will likely be matched up with Verrett at least fifty percent of the time, lowering the ceiling on his possible range of outcomes. It will be tough to stomach this pivot, as Tavon Austin is leading the Rams with 21 targets but seriously somehow only has 63 receiving yards. His inefficiency is mind-blowing, but it’s hard to argue a receiver at this price point who will get 10-plus targets. Austin scored nine touchdowns last year (four rushing), so look for him to end his scoring drought very soon. Since he also returns punts, stack him with the Rams’ D/ST for a chance at the 12-point return touchdown.

While everyone is on Jacob Tamme ($5500) and Delanie Walker ($6900), you can save some money and use:

Trey Burton

$4500 | PHI +3.5, 46.5

[the_ad id=”58837″]With Zach Ertz out with a displaced rib, Trey Burton saw 31 snaps on Monday night against the Bears and drew seven targets, including one in the red zone that he converted for a touchdown. For just $4500, it’s going to be impossible to find a tight end that will receive more than five targets. He’s not a big name player, and that will help depress his ownership, but as mentioned above, the Eagles will have to throw the ball this week. If Burton goes 4/55/1 this week, that’s all he needs to do to hit tournament value.

Charles Clay

$5400 | BUF +3.5, 47

So who are you going to stack with Tyrod Taylor? Bills’ head coach Rex Ryan admitted Friday that Sammy Watkins likely won’t suit up Sunday as he’s dealing with his foot injury so that Charles Clay will be the main factor in the passing game this weekend. In games where Watkins played last year, Clay saw just 4.3 targets per game. In the three games Watkins missed, that number jumped to 7.0 targets per game. Once again, this is a great spot for the Bills, but it’s an even better spot for Charles Clay specifically.

 

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