FanDuel Week 11: GPP Tournament Plays
In daily fantasy football, it is essential to find value for your lineups. If we want to be able to afford the top dollar names like Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, we’ll inevitably need to balance our lineup with less expensive players who provide upside.
There are certain value thresholds that we need from these players in order to cash in, and more importantly, win tournaments and larger leagues.
For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (for example, Marcus Mariota is $8,000 this week and would need to score 24.0 FanDuel points to justify his usage).
If these high-upside plays are also low-owned, we now have an elite GPP tournament play. Each week, we’ll look at who the most popular plays will be and how we can pivot away from them without losing upside.
Here are the top tournament plays for Week 11.
These dual-threat quarterbacks have huge upside:
$7000 | SF +13, 51
There are tons of positive trends in favor of Colin Kaepernick this week. For one, he’s hosting the Patriots, who will have to travel across the country after a tough Sunday night game against the Seahawks last week. Two, he’s playing in one of the higher Vegas total games of the week (51) and as a 13-point underdog, we should see him dropping back to pass often in the second half. Thirdly, he’s $300 cheaper this week on FanDuel, which is absurd given the fact that he’s averaging more than 20 FanDuel points per game in his four starts this season. Even if he struggles in the passing game, his 57 rushing yards per game will buoy his fantasy production.
$7300 | BUF +2.5, 47.5
Here’s another rushing quarterback in a great situation this week — if the spread in Kaepernick’s game scares you, stick Tyrod Taylor in your lineups. The Bills are getting plenty of love in the betting markets this week, as they’re currently receiving 77 percent of the spread bets versus the Bengals. Bettors are anticipating scoring, too, as the total has jumped two points since its 45.5 opener early in the week. When this line movement happened earlier this season, the Bills stomped the visiting Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals are on a short week after a Monday night game, giving Tyrod Taylor an excellent opportunity to hit tournament value in Week 11.[wlm_nonmember]
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$7400 | SEA -6.5, 44
Russell Wilson hasn’t been as mobile this year as the two quarterbacks listed above, but he’s by far the superior passer. Wilson looked healthy for the first time all season last Sunday, as he shredded the New England Patriots with 348 yards and three touchdowns. Hosting the Eagles this week, the Seahawks are in a strong spot, according to Vegas — Seattle has moved from 4.5-point favorites to 6.5-point favorites over the last couple of days. With Christine Michael out of the picture and Thomas Rawls likely being eased into action, the offensive burden will be placed on Russell Wilson’s shoulder in Week 11.
You won’t need to pay up to get a top running back performance this week:
$6200 | CLE +8, 46.5
The Cleveland Browns will host the Steelers this weekend in a game where most expect the Steelers to easily take care of business. Not so fast — the Steelers’ offense is much worse on the road and the weather forecast isn’t optimal for Sunday in Cleveland. Currently, winds are forecasted to be sustained near 25 miles-per-hour, which would hinder the passing games of both offenses. If this game is close and running the ball is the primary option, Isaiah Crowell will have a huge day, especially with stud defensive lineman Cam Heyward out for the year for Pittsburgh. Crowell won’t be more than five percent owned on FanDuel this weekend, but he’s in the perfect situation to reach tournament value.
$6300 | IND -3, 53.5
Frank Gore is never an exciting play in DFS, but it’s about time we start recognizing his value. He’s scored four touchdowns while averaging 18 touches per game over the last three weeks. He’ll be playing at home this week against the Titans, who Gore scored 16.8 FanDuel points against in Week 7. This game features the highest Vegas total of the week and Gore has handled 74 percent of the Colts’ RB touches this season — if his usage continues, he’ll have the opportunity for a multi-touchdown game on Sunday. The Colts have the second-highest implied team total of the week, so there’s a ton of upside in this play.
$7300 | NE -13, 51
When the Patriots are favored by more than a touchdown, LeGarrette Blount becomes an elite fantasy option. It doesn’t get much better than this week for Blount — the Patriots are 13-point favorites and he’ll be facing a 49ers’ defense that has allowed the most FanDuel points in the league to running backs. Since Tom Brady returned to the lineup, Blount is averaging 18.8 carries and 1.6 touchdowns per game. He may be highly owned in tournaments, but would it surprise anyone if Blount scored four touchdowns this weekend? That kind of upside can’t be ignored regardless of his popularity.
Two receivers with larger roles this week:
$5600 | CHI +7.5, 44.5
Cam Meredith burst onto the fantasy scene in Week 5 when he took over for the injured Kevin White and posted 9-130-1 against the indianapolis Colts. Meredith has cooled off recently with just three receptions total in his last three games, but the Bears will have no choice but to rely on him moving forward. Fellow WR Alshon Jeffery was hit with a four game suspension that he’ll serve immediately, leaving Meredith as the number one option in the passing game. The Bears are 7.5-point underdogs against the Giants this weekend, so they should have a pass-heavy game script in the second half. At just $5600, Meredith is too cheap for his expected volume.
$5900 | MIN PK, 40
It was revealed earlier this week that Cardinals’ stud cornerback Patrick Peterson will shadow Vikings’ WR Stefon Diggs on Sunday. The Vikings have run their offense through Diggs since Pat Shurmur took over the play-calling duties, peppering him with 29 targets in the last two games. If Peterson does indeed show him, the Vikings’ passing game will be forced to look elsewhere. Adam Thielen, meanwhile, has emerged as the team’s number two wide receiver, playing 155 more snaps than the number three guy. His film has been very impressive so if he gets increased opportunities this week — similar to when Diggs was out in Week 5 and Thielen scored 22.2 FanDuel points — he’ll exceed 3X tournament value.
Two old, but cheap, tight ends:
$4800 | BUF +2.5, 47.5
I’ve written about Charles Clay multiple times this year in this column, but he somehow still has zero touchdowns on the season. Is this the week he finally breaks the streak? He’ll face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday — they’ve allowed the third-most FanDuel points to opposing tight ends this season. There’s a thin line between persistence and stupidity, and rostering Charles Clay is dangerously toeing that line. But we know he’ll be low-owned, we know Vegas views Buffalo in a great spot, and we know he has an excellent matchup. If he doesn’t do it this week, it will be time to forever write off Charles Clay as a DFS option.
$5500 | DAL -7, 45
The Dallas Cowboys’ offense has become a scary matchup for opposing defenses. With Ezekiel Elliott tearing apart every front seven this season, plus the return of Dez Bryant from injury, every skill player in the Dallas passing game is left with one-on-one opportunities. Dak Prescott has looked Jason Witten’s way more frequently over the last couple of weeks, as Witten is averaging more than seven targets per game since Bryant returned. During that span, he also scored his first two touchdowns of the season. As long as their offense continues to roll, there will be numerous scoring opportunities available — for $5500, you can have a cheap piece of this dominant offense.[/wlm_ismember]
Thanks for reading and good luck this week![the_ad id=”65749″]
Brian has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and commissioned his first fantasy league at age 12. When he’s not writing about sports, you can find him playing every daily fantasy sport and participating in high stakes fantasy football contests. Brian won more than 1,000 NFL contests on FanDuel last season and has won multiple league championships in the Footballguys Player Championship contest. A graduate of the University of Maryland, Brian usually spends his winters agonizing over Terrapins basketball. When the weather is warmer, Brian is known for his receiving prowess in flag football leagues on the National Mall in Washington, DC.