FanDuel Week 2: GPP Tournament Plays
In daily fantasy football, it is essential to find value for your lineups. If we want to be able to afford the top dollar names like Aaron Rodgers and Odell Beckham, Jr., we’ll inevitably need to balance our lineup with less expensive players who provide upside.
There are certain value thresholds that we need from these players in order to cash in, and more importantly, win tournaments and larger leagues.
For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (for example, Spencer Ware is is $6,800 this week and would need to score 20.4 FanDuel points to justify his usage).
If these high-upside plays are also low-owned, we now have an elite GPP tournament play. Each week, we’ll look at who the most popular plays will be and how we can pivot away from them without losing upside.
Here are the top tournament plays for Week 2.
Everyone will be on Eli Manning & Odell Beckham, Jr. Be different with:
$8300 | OAK -4.5, 49.5
If there’s one thing we know for sure in fantasy football, it’s that the Saints’ defense is a matchup to exploit. Everyone else knows this, too, which means that Eli Manning will be the highest owned quarterback this week against New Orleans in a game with the highest total on the board by three points (53). But Derek Carr is in just as favorable of a situation against the Falcons who allowed four passing touchdowns to Jameis Winston in Week 1. The Raiders-Falcons total has moved 2.5 points since it opened from 47 to 49.5 and when the total has moved that much in games over the past three seasons, quarterbacks have reached 3x value on FanDuel 33 percent of the time.
$9300 | ATL +4.5, 49.5[the_ad id=”58837″]If DFSers are using Eli in tournaments, then you know they’re definitely stacking him with Odell Beckham, Jr. The upside is high, but the ownership may be too much to stomach. If you can get a similar wide receiver for 5 percent ownership, that sounds a lot better, right? With Beckham’s matchup, the explosion of Antonio Brown in Week 1, and Mohamed Sanu outproducing him last week on the same number of targets, Julio Jones will be majorly under-owned on Sunday. You saw what Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks did to the Raiders’ DBs a week ago — don’t lose sight of Jones’ upside.
$6300 | NYG -4.5, 53.5
Here’s the ideal way to pivot away from Manning and Beckham — use the running back! Rashad Jennings played on 57 percent of the snaps in Week 1 and with the removal of that awful four-man committee from a year ago, he’s in line for 20-plus touches in this matchup. The Saints allowed 151 yards and three touchdowns to Raiders’ RBs last week, so if the Giants gain an early lead, Jennings can put up a ton of FanDuel points with plenty of opportunities in the second half.
Cam Newton’s Panthers are 14-point favorites at home. Think he’ll be throwing in the second half?
$6700 | CAR – 13.5, 45
If I told you you could get a running back at less than $7000 who has a better-than-average chance of scoring 25-plus FanDuel points, you’d jump all over that, right? Well, that man is Jonathan Stewart this week. Over the last three years, running backs playing as a 14-point or more favorite have hit that 25-point mark 21 percent of the time. While everyone else is on Cam Newton in the passing game, you will be smiling while Stewart is grinding the clock in the second half.[wlm_nonmember]
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Spencer Ware’s performance is fresh in people’s minds. Get similar upside at lower ownership:
$6600 | SEA -6.5 | 38
Spencer Ware’s FanDuel salary increased by $1400 this week, so it will be tough to squeeze tournament value out of him against the Texans. Thomas Rawls, meanwhile, will have half the ownership of Ware because of his lack of production in Week 1 and the low total of 38 in the Seahawks-Rams contest. Rawls has already been named the starter this week and actually received more touches per snap (0.68) and FanDuel points per touch (0.33) than Christine Michael a week ago. Rawls is in line for a heavy workload with quarterback Russell Wilson nursing a bum ankle.
People will try to get a two-touchdown repeat from C.J. Anderson and DeAngelo Williams. These guys have the same opportunity:
$7700 | HOU -2.5, 43
With awesome primetime performances from C.J. Anderson and DeAngelo Williams last week, you can be certain that they will be two of the highest owned running backs in Week 2. But if there’s a running back who will have the opportunity to outperform those two, it’ll be Lamar Miller. Miller led all running backs in carries in Week 1 with 28, which was the first time in his NFL career that he’s received more than 25 rushing attempts in a game. There’s a lot of confidence in the Texans this week — they’re receiving 71 percent of the spread bets at Sportsbook.ag. While everyone else uses DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller from this offense, you’ll get a guy that will touch the ball nearly 30 times.
$7400 | ATL +4.5, 49.5
It was a tough week for Devonta Freeman last week, as he played just four more snaps than Tevin Coleman and touched the ball just two more times. That will scare off many DFS players this weekend, but we can’t ignore Freeman’s touchdown upside. Mentioned above, the game total has moved from 47 to 49.5, so there should be plenty of scoring in this contest. The silver lining for Freeman? Last week, despite his poor output, he garnered six red zone opportunities. A running back with that much red zone usage has multiple touchdown upside that can help you win a GPP.
These three receivers will be under-owned for a variety of reasons:
$7000 | DEN -6, 46.5
It was reported Sunday morning that Demaryius Thomas suffered a hip injury and would need a second opinion on his MRI. While certainly an ominous report, Thomas practiced this week and is set to play on Sunday. Not many will have the guts to roster DT this week because of the uncertainty with his injury, but he has so many things going for him in Week 2. He’s cheaper this week with a $200 salary deduction, the total has moved up and the Broncos have become bigger favorites, and he’s facing a banged-up Colts defense. Oh, and he’ll be less than three percent owned.
$5800 | CHI -3, 42.5
Kevin White had a very quiet preseason and scored just 4.9 FanDuel points in Week 1, so he’ll be off of everyone’s radars on Monday night versus the Eagles. Despite his lack of production, he actually played more snaps than Alshon Jeffery last week (55 to 53) and received more targets (seven to six). In the same salary tier as Tajae Sharpe, Travis Benjamin, and Will Fuller, White will go majorly overlooked this week — you won’t find a higher talent level and ceiling for this price.
$7000 | IND +6, 46.5
Facing the toughest pass defense in the league, T.Y. Hilton won’t be on many GPP rosters this weekend. But what other wide receivers can you roster for $7000 that has the speed of Hilton and will receive double digit targets? In week 1, Hilton paced the Colts’ offense with 12 targets, while no other player eclipsed seven — he’s the top wideout on this team. Because of the matchup, Hilton may even be less owned than Demaryius Thomas — perhaps around one percent in most GPPs. With a Vegas total that keeps moving higher and an elite quarterback throwing the ball, this is the prime spot to pivot away from the crowd without losing upside.[/wlm_ismember]
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Brian has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and commissioned his first fantasy league at age 12. When he’s not writing about sports, you can find him playing every daily fantasy sport and participating in high stakes fantasy football contests. Brian won more than 1,000 NFL contests on FanDuel last season and has won multiple league championships in the Footballguys Player Championship contest. A graduate of the University of Maryland, Brian usually spends his winters agonizing over Terrapins basketball. When the weather is warmer, Brian is known for his receiving prowess in flag football leagues on the National Mall in Washington, DC.