Week 10 FanDuel Lineup Tips and Picks
Each week in this article, I refer to specific players as GPP-only plays and I always allude to finding players who will be lesser owned in large-field tournaments. However, some DFS players use this advice too liberally and fill their entire lineup with contrarian/low-owned/high risk plays. The truth is, you CAN have a lineup that has high-owned players and still win a tournament. Let’s look at a real life example from this past weekend.
On FanDuel, there is a weekly $2 qualifier for the Sunday Monster ($300 entry, $75,000 to first place). In this qualifier, there are 172 entrants, but only first place walks away with a Monster ticket. In fact, that’s the only prize rewarded as the other 171 entrants receive $0. Beating 171 other players is a tough task, but you don’t need a completely contrarian lineup.
I won this qualifier in week 9 -> here’s the link to the contest and my winning lineup.
But as you look through my roster, you’ll notice I have three players who are 20-plus percent owned (DeAngelo Williams, Odell Beckham, Jr., Alshon Jeffery). To balance my roster, I used a low-owned stack of Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker (2% and 5% respectively).
This can be extrapolated to a simple rule of thumb for creating GPP lineups:
If you use a high-owned stack, you must have two or three low-owned position players – five percent or less.
If you use a low-owned stack, feel free to use two or three of the highest-owned plays of the week at other positions – 20 percent or higher. Our staff member John Raleigh (@JJRaleigh87) uses this technique often in our staff DraftKings Gauntlet by assembling rosters with a low-owned stack, cheap three-down RBs, and elite WRs.
With this balance, you’ll ensure roster uniqueness without sacrificing great plays.
If you’re new to daily fantasy football or you just need a refresher, please read my NFL DFS strategy guide here: Draft Kings vs FanDuel vs Fantasy Score
In that article, you’ll find that there are certain value thresholds that we need from our players in order to win the two main types of contests in DFS: cash games (50/50s and head-to-heads) and tournaments (GPPs and leagues).
- For FanDuel cash games, we need our guys to reach 2x their salary (Example: If Andrew Luck is $10,000, he needs to score 20 points to reach value).
- For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (In this same example, Andrew Luck needs to score 30 points to reach value).
Most of the plays below are for cash games. Tournament plays will have a *GPP ONLY* designation next to their name. Each week, we’ll review the previous week’s plays and track our success rate for both cash game plays and tournament plays. Our target goal for the season is to hit 60% of cash game plays and 30% of tournament plays. A “hit” is defined as reaching value.
All of our cash game plays finally lined up last week – we hit 7 of 9. Our lone GPP play (BOOO Kirk Cousins) wasn’t close.
- Cash game plays: 38/71 54%
- GPP plays: 5/15 33%
On to this week’s plays!
10. Brian Hoyer
$6800 (HOU +11, 47)
Points needed to reach value: 13.6
You’ve seen this story before. The Texans are down four scores early in the second half and they thrown the ball 50 times to try and make the score look respectable. Also take comfort in fact that aside from week 1 when he was benched halfway through the game, Hoyer has scored at least 13.6 FanDuel points in every start this season.
9. Joe Flacco
$7500 (BAL -5, 47.5)
Points needed to reach value: 15.0
Joe Flacco hasn’t exactly been elite this season and now with his top weapon out for the year, you may be wondering how he can possibly be a value play this week. Well, the Ravens have an expected team total of 27 points – given the fact that Flacco has been a part of 13 of the 17 Ravens’ offensive TDs, he’ll have a huge part in scoring those 27 points. Flacco’s 2015 performances have shown a very narrow range of outcome, making him suitable for cash games but not ideal for GPPs.
8. Doug Martin
$6700 (TB -1, 43)
Points needed to reach value: 13.4
While he does concede snaps to Charles Sims, Martin is a rare workhorse back that averages exactly 20 touches per game. This week, Martin is playing at home as a slight favorite – always good for a RB’s prospects. But most importantly, Martin has the pleasure of facing a Dallas defense that has allowed the second-most FanDuel points to opposing RBs this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Martin reach value on his yardage total alone.
7. Jordan Matthews
$6600 (PHI -6, 50) – *GPP ONLY*
Points needed to reach value: 19.8
If you’ve rostered Jordan Matthews at any point this season, there’s a solid chance you were disappointed. Despite receiving more than nine targets per game, Matthews has been underwhelming and his targets haven’t translated into fantasy production. He finally had a breakout game last week, totaling 9/133/1 versus the Cowboys. Perhaps the hand injury he was dealing with is finally healed? Whatever the reason for his outburst, there is risk associated with Matthews due to his early season woes. Regardless, he has the matchup and upside to reach GPP value.
6. Blake Bortles
$7800 (JAX +5, 47.5)
Points needed to reach value: 15.6
While the ride hasn’t been entirely smooth, Blake Bortles has put up some impressive fantasy numbers this season. This week, his team travels to Baltimore to face a pass defense that gives up the second-most FanDuel points to opposing QBs. Nothing changed for Baltimore during their bye week – they’ll still be terrible at guarding receivers. Bortles has scored 15.6 or more FanDuel points in all but two games this season, which shows his consistency for cash games.
5. Allen Robinson
$7500 (JAX +5, 47.5)
Points needed to reach value: 15.0
See Blake Bortles above. If the Jets had trouble containing Robinson last week, the Ravens will have no idea what to do with him this week. As near-touchdown underdogs with a high total, there will be loads of passing for Jacksonville on Sunday.
Given the matchup, 15 points should be an easy task for Robinson.
4. DeMarco Murray
$7700 (PHI -6, 50)
Points needed to reach value: 15.4
DeMarco Murray has really picked up the pace over the last four weeks, scoring three touchdowns and adding 4.5 receptions per game. He’s earned more snaps and touches than Ryan Mathews at about a 2.5 to 1 ratio, establishing his presence as the lead back. As near-touchdown favorites at home versus a defense that allows nearly 19% more FanDuel points to opposing RBs than league average, we can expect Murray to add to his string of recent performances.
3. Kamar Aiken
$5400 (BAL -5, 47.5)
Points needed to reach value: 10.8
With Steve Smith gone for the season, Kamar Aiken will step into the WR1 role for Baltimore. When Smith missed the team’s week five contest versus Cleveland, Aiken saw a season-high 9 targets and converted them into 78 yards. In a similar situation/price point this weekend, look for Aiken to lead the team in targets and reach 2x value.
2. Kirk Cousins
$6500 (WAS -1, 50)
Points needed to reach value: 13.0
Kirk Cousins failed us last week, but we’re going right back to him in week 10. Fortunately for Cousins, he gets a much easier matchup this week. In fact, it’s the easiest matchup on the board. The Saints allow nearly 36% more FanDuel points to opposing QBs than league average, which is the worst in the NFL by a wide margin. Add in the fact that this game has one of the highest totals on the board (50.5) and Cousins looks to be an excellent cheap QB play.
1. James Starks
$6000 (GB -10.5, 49.5)
Points needed to reach value: 12.0
This week, head coach Mike McCarthy named James Starks the starting RB for the Packers. Not that we needed an official announcement, as Starks has outperformed Lacy in every aspect in the past few weeks. Starks out-snapped Lacy 55-19 (!!) last week and earned 16 touches to Lacy’s five. Given the matchup and game script, there will be huge fantasy numbers to come from the Green Bay running game. If the recent workload split continues – and it should – then Starks is in for a big game.
For more DFS advice, follow me on Twitter @BrianJesterFF.