Daily Fantasy

FanDuel Lineup Advice: Ten Value Plays Week 7

Fanduel Week 7

With six weeks in the books, we’re starting to collect concrete matchup data, team tendencies, and player roles. As more 2015 data becomes available, the easier it becomes to project player’s outcome range in a given week. Projecting exact values versus projecting outcome ranges is the basis for an entire article by itself (one I plan to tackle this offseason), but the point is that we gain greater clarity for a player’s value with each passing week.

Week 7 FanDuel Lineup Tips and Picks

Fanduel Lineup AdviceWith six weeks in the books, we’re starting to collect concrete matchup data, team tendencies, and player roles. As more 2015 data becomes available, the easier it becomes to project player’s outcome range in a given week. Projecting exact values versus projecting outcome ranges is the basis for an entire article by itself (one I plan to tackle this offseason), but the point is that we gain greater clarity for a player’s value with each passing week.

For me, this week offers the greatest clarity of any week this season by far. Is it because we now have six weeks of data to use? Perhaps, but I think this week there are an inordinate number of players with clear roles in very favorable matchups and gamescripts. As a result, my bankroll allocation will be shifted more towards the cash game end of the spectrum for week 7.

Last week, I asked you do a self-assessment after five weeks of the fantasy season. By taking a step back and analyzing every aspect of your DFS season, do you have a greater idea of how to plan for DFS in the coming weeks?

If so, that’s great! If not, I offer one recommendation. Play a greater-than-normal percentage of your weekly bankroll in 5050s and head-to-heads this week.

If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet and you’re ready to try daily fantasy, now is the time -> SIGN UP HERE and start winning!

If you’re new to daily fantasy football or you just need a refresher, please read my NFL DFS strategy guide here: Draft Kings vs FanDuel vs Fantasy Score

In that article, you’ll find that there are certain value thresholds that we need from our players in order to win the two main types of contests in DFS: cash games (50/50s and head-to-heads) and tournaments (GPPs and leagues).

For FanDuel cash games, we need our guys to reach 2x their salary (Example: If Andrew Luck is $10,000, he needs to score 20 points to reach value).

For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (In this same example, Andrew Luck needs to score 30 points to reach value).

Most of the plays below are for cash games. Tournament plays will have a *GPP ONLY* designation next to their name. Each week, we’ll review the previous week’s plays and track our success rate for both cash game plays and tournament plays. Our target goal for the season is to hit 60% of cash game plays and 30% of tournament plays. A “hit” is defined as reaching value.

Last week, we had some huge misses with our cash games plays, hitting just 2 of 7. However, we crushed both GPP plays – Colin Kaepernick and Steve Smith.

Season totals:

  • Cash game plays: 22/46 48%
  • GPP plays: 5/11 45%

On to this week’s plays!

10. Larry Fitzgerald

$7800 (ARI -7.5, 48)

Points needed to reach value: 15.6

Larry FitzgeraldIf you’ve read my DFS strategy guide above or have been following this column all season, you know that we want to select players with very high floors for our cash game lineups. So far in 2015, Fitzgerald has never totaled less than 7 targets, 5 receptions, 58 yards, or 11.7 FanDuel points in a single game. This kind of consistency reigns supreme in cash games. It also helps that Fitzgerald will lineup against the worst secondary in football (this will be a common theme throughout this week’s article).

9. Frank Gore

$7100 (IND -4.5, 52)

Points needed to reach value: 14.2

Frank Gore has the perfect intersect of gamescript and matchup this week, as he’s playing at home as a 4.5 favorite in a game with the highest total on the board versus a defense that has allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points to opposing RBs. Despite the signing of Ahmad Bradshaw, Gore still played a majority of the RB snaps last week and earned two red zone looks. If you’re looking for a mid-tier cash game option at RB, Gore is your man.

8. Antonio Gates

$5800 (SD -4, 47)

Points needed to reach value: 11.6

Antonio GatesSometimes, it really is this easy. Since returning from suspension, Antonio Gates has received 27 targets in 2 games and has turned those targets into 39.7 FanDuel points. This week, he draws an Oakland defense that gives up 75% more FanDuel points than league average to opposing TEs.

That number is even difficult to wrap your mind around. You’ll be behind the eight ball if you don’t play Gates in your cash lineups this weekend.

7. Landry Jones

$6000 (PIT -3, no total yet) – *GPP ONLY*

Points needed to reach value: 18.0

I’ve mentioned this in the past about various plays, but if you put Landry Jones in your tournament lineup, you’re better off watching RedZone or your favorite/local team and just checking the Steelers box score at the end of the 1pm games. Landry Jones was one of the worst QBs in the preseason this year, but he provided a spark to the offense when he was inserted last week after Mike Vick’s injury. With so many weapons around him, if Jones is just barely competent (which could prove to be a huge task), he has a legitimate chance at 3x value. It does help that he has a matchup with one of the worst passing defenses in the league.

6. Rashad Jennings

$6300 (NYG – 3.5, 44.5)

Points needed to reach value: 12.6

It seems as if the Giants’ three-headed RB attack is FINALLY turning into a two-man backfield, as perhaps the coaching staff has finally understood the ineffectiveness of Andre Williams. Williams has earned just 17 snaps in the last two games, leaving Jennings with consecutive season highs in the snap count department. Similar to Frank Gore, Jennings has the preferred intersect of game script and matchup this week. You’d be wise to take advantage of his friendly salary in cash games.

5. Todd Gurley

$7400 (STL -5.5, 41.5)

Points needed to reach value: 14.8

Todd GurleyTodd Gurley certainly took the league by storm when he finally stepped on the field, eh? In his two starts, Gurley has rushed for 305 yards while toting the rock 49 times. The Cleveland Browns come to town this week, a team that is allowing 28.2 FanDuel points per game to opposing RBs. Gurley has earned a majority of the RB workload since taking over as the starter, so expect him to take 80 to 90% of the RB production this weekend.

Being a near-touchdown favorite at home just cements his value play status.

4. Carson Palmer

$8200 (ARI -7.5, 48)

Points needed to reach value: 16.4

Last week, Carson Palmer missed a LOT of throws and made some questionable decisions, yet still finished with more than 400 yards passing. With a plethora of weapons at his disposal, Palmer is poised to post big fantasy numbers every time he steps on the field. This week, he has a dream matchup at home versus Baltimore. The Ravens allow 25.5 FanDuel points per game to opposing QBs and perhaps more incredibly, opposing QBs have reached tournament value in 4 of 6 games! Palmer is the chalk cash game play this week and due to his huge ceiling, he can be used in tournaments as well.

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3. Willie Snead

$6500 (NO +4, 52)

Points needed to reach value: 13.0

Willie SneadSince taking over a starting role in this offense, Willie Snead has quietly been a consistent fantasy producer. Snead has a great floor for such a cheap price, seeing as his lowest output all year was just 6.9 FanDuel points in week 3. Snead has the second highest target share in this offense and in a week where his team is the underdog in a game projected for 52 points, there will be plenty of FanDuel points to distribute amongst the Saints’ receiving targets. Lock him in as one of your cash game wideouts.

2. John Brown

$6700 (ARI -7.5, 48)

Points needed to reach value: 13.4

Up until week 6, John Brown was a fantastic playmaker for the Cardinals’ offense whose performances weren’t exactly translating into monster fantasy stats. With multiple drawn pass interferences, it was only a matter of time before Brown had a huge statistical game. Well, it happened in week 6, as Brown tallied 10 receptions for 196 yards. Looking to build on that momentum, John Brown has one of the best matchups in league in week 7, as he faces a Ravens defense that allows 34 percent more points than league average to opposing WRs.

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick

$7100 (NYJ +9, 48)

Points needed to reach value: 14.2 

Ryan FitzpatrickHow many times has Ryan Fitzpatrick scored less than 14.2 FanDuel points this season? Just once – in week 1. This week’s gamescript sets up perfectly for Fitzpatrick to attempt a high number of passes, as the Jets are 9-point underdogs to the high-octane offense of the Patriots.

This season, the Patriots allow 19.9 FanDuel points per game to opposing QBs, mostly because teams are forced to throw so often to try to catch up. That shouldn’t change this week and as a result, Fitzpatrick is my number one option in all formats.

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