Week 6 FanDuel Lineup Tips and Picks
Week 6 is upon us, which means nearly a third of the NFL DFS season is complete! Before this week’s action starts, it’s a good time to step back and take a look at your DFS performance to date. Here are some questions and exercises that I’m personally performing this week:
- Am I winning or losing player overall thus far? If I’m losing, where have I been making mistakes?
- How am I allocating my weekly bankroll? Am I playing more cash games or more tournaments? I use the RotoGrinders’ Bankroll Management Tool, where you can easily upload your FanDuel history and track your bankroll.
- As a follow-up, how am I performing in each type of contest? Should I allocate more or less money to various types of contests based on my previous performance?
- How can I improve my player selection process? No one’s process is perfect; I’m always looking for ways to improve how I select players.
- What kind of player am I? Am I just throwing a couple bucks at it per week looking to have some fun or am I serious about creating supplemental income?
If you have individual questions about your DFS performance so far, feel free to contact me on Twitter and I’ll help you out.
If you’re new to daily fantasy football or you just need a refresher, please read my NFL DFS strategy guide here: Draft Kings vs FanDuel vs Fantasy Score
In that article, you’ll find that there are certain value thresholds that we need from our players in order to win the two main types of contests in DFS: cash games (50/50s and head-to-heads) and tournaments (GPPs and leagues).
- For FanDuel cash games, we need our guys to reach 2x their salary (Example: If Andrew Luck is $10,000, he needs to score 20 points to reach value).
- For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (In this same example, Andrew Luck needs to score 30 points to reach value).
Most of the plays below are for cash games. Tournament plays will have a *GPP ONLY* designation next to their name. Each week, we’ll review the previous week’s plays and track our success rate for both cash game plays and tournament plays. Our target goal for the season is to hit 60% of cash game plays and 30% of tournament plays. A “hit” is defined as reaching value.
Last week, we hit 5/9 cash game plays and we barely missed our only GPP play as Jay Cutler produced just 2.6x his salary.
- Cash game plays: 20/39 51%
- GPP plays: 3/9 33%
In week 5, my FanDuel cash game lineup scored 127, well above the 120 point cash game benchmark. My lineup utilized three of our core value plays – Antonio Gates, Kendall Wright, and Willie Snead. Wright was a disappointment as our #1 value play, but Snead and Gates both scored 3x value and played huge roles in this lineup’s performance. I’ve mentioned it in previous articles, but my general cash game strategy is to pay up at QB and RB, while looking for cheaper receivers with guaranteed targets. I used that strategy this week and while it is a great rule of thumb, don’t be stuck to this idea. On some weeks, the player pool will dictate that we need to stray from this roster construction technique.
On to this week’s plays!
10. Eli Manning
$7800 (NYG +4, 50)
Points needed to reach value: 15.6
Eli Manning exploded on Sunday night, passing for 441 yards and 3 TDs, well eclipsing the 3x threshold needed for tournament value. While the actual matchup isn’t as good this week, Manning will likely be rewarded with a favorable game script as four-point underdogs to Philadelphia. Manning has scored more than 15.6 points in each of the last four weeks and this shouldn’t be the game to stop that streak.
Keep your eye on the injury report, however. If Odell Beckham, Jr. doesn’t practice fully at some point this week and looks iffy to play on Monday night, Manning no longer becomes a value play.
9. Richard Rodgers
$5100 (GB -10, 50.5)
Points needed to reach value: 10.2
Ever since fellow TE Andrew Quarless went down with injury, Richard Rodgers has dominated the snaps at the TE position. Being on the field for 95% of the TE snaps, Rodgers has earned 14 targets and 11 receptions over the last two weeks. With that kind of usage on a team that is projected to score 30.5 points this weekend, Rodgers is a no-brainer tight end play at just $5100.
8. Gio Bernard
$6700 (CIN -3.5, 43)
Points needed to reach value: 13.4
Before the season started, if I told you that after week 5, Bengals RB A has played 215 snaps and totaled 86 touches for 473 yards while Bengals RB B has played 131 snaps and totaled 60 touches for 190 yards, you’d think Jeremy Hill is RB A right?
Due to bouts of fumbling issues and general underperformance, Hill has been relegated to more of a complementary role while Gio Bernard (the real RB A in this scenario) has been a fantasy playmaker. Receiving 17 touches per week in this high-octane offense, Bernard has scored at least 9.8 FanDuel points in every game this year and has a very safe floor for cash games.
7. Colin Kaepernick
$7300 (SF +2.5, 44) – *GPP ONLY*
Points needed to reach value: 21.9
To say Colin Kaepernick has been inconsistent this year would be an understatement. Let’s take a look at his FanDuel point totals from his first five games: 10.7, 26.5, 9.3, 11.1, 20.8. Kaepernick is obviously not someone we can rely on in a cash game, as he’s failed to reach 2x value in 60% of his games this year. However, due to his rushing ability and arm strength, he is capable of putting up monster fantasy numbers. This week, he faces a Ravens team that has allowed the second most FanDuel points to opposing QBs. As a result, this matchup presents the perfect scenario to play the high-risk high-reward 49ers QB.
6. Steve Smith
$6700 (BAL -2.5, 44) – *GPP ONLY*
Points needed to reach value: 20.1
It takes a lot to keep down Steve Smith, as it took four microfractures in his back for the veteran to miss Baltimore’s week five contest. However, he practiced on Wednesday and it looks like he’ll suit up this Sunday. Smith will return to a Baltimore offense that is in major need of a playmaker, so if he’s healthy enough to play, he should be in line for 10-plus targets. It’s icing on the cake that he faces a 49ers’ defense that is 23.5% above league average in FanDuel points allowed to opposing WRs. But because of his injury situation, Smith should be limited to your GPP lineups only.
5. Sam Bradford
$7700 (PHI -4, 50)
Points needed to reach value: 15.4
Over the last two weeks, it appears as if the Eagles’ offense has finally started to turn things around. While Sam Bradford hasn’t been consistent, he’s managed to score 20-plus FanDuel points in each of his last two games. The running game finally clicked in week five, which is a scary thought for opposing defenses if this offense isn’t one dimensional.
In a game with a Vegas total of 50, Bradford should easily be able to achieve 2x value for cash games.
4. Javorius Allen
$5100 (BAL -2.5, 44)
Points needed to reach value: 10.2
By Sunday morning, this may be simple. Justin Forsett is dealing with an ankle sprain and hasn’t practiced yet this week. While the coaching staff is saying Forsett suffered a low ankle sprain (and they’ve been very wrong this year about disclosing injuries – see Breshad Perriman), the mechanism certainly appeared to be that of a high ankle sprain. Reserve RB Lorenzo Taliaferro was placed on injured reserve this week, which would leave Buck Allen as a the sole RB and a must-play at $5100 if Forsett is ruled out. Note: If Forsett fully practices by Friday and looks healthy enough to play, he instead would be the value play here.[wlm_nonmember]
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3. Teddy Bridgewater
$6600 (MIN -3.5, 44)
Points needed to reach value: 13.2
If you want to go cheap at QB in cash games this week, Teddy Bridgewater has a lot of factors pointing in his favor. For starters, he’s coming off a bye and is playing in a home game as a FG-plus favorite. Most importantly, he’s facing a Chiefs defense that has allowed 28% more FanDuel points to opposing QBs than league average. This same Chiefs defense has also allowed 2 or more passing TDs in 4 of 5 games this season. The Vikings’ offensive line may scare you (and it should) versus a Justin Houston-led front seven, but Teddy was able to reach 2x value two weeks ago versus a Denver pass rush that is arguably better, so I wouldn’t fret.
2. DeMarco Murray
$7600 (PHI -4, 50)
Points needed to reach value: 15.4
After complaining about not getting the ball enough, last week DeMarco Murray matched or exceeded his season high in snap count, rush attempts, touches, rushing yards, total yards, targets, and receptions. The situation couldn’t be much better for Murray in week six, as his team is a 4-point favorite at home on Monday night football in a game with a 50-point total. With the (perhaps foolish) assumption that Murray will continue to receive a high number of touches, he’s one of my favorite plays in both cash games and tournaments this weekend.
1. Eric Decker
$6100 (NYJ -6, 41)
Points needed to reach value: 12.2
The bye week came at a great time for Eric Decker, as he’s now had two weeks to fully recover from his PCL sprain in week 2 versus the Colts. Decker missed the Jets’ game in week 3, but managed to return in a limited role in week 4. Despite his injury, Decker has managed to score a TD in each game so far this season and looks to be a red zone favorite of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Decker will square off against the Redskins this week, who aside from last week has had a very formidable rush defense. The secondary is the weakness in Washington and with a team total of 23.5 points this weekend, look for the Jets to score a majority of their points through the air.[/wlm_ismember]
For more DFS advice, follow me on Twitter @BrianJesterFF.
Brian has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and commissioned his first fantasy league at age 12. When he’s not writing about sports, you can find him playing every daily fantasy sport and participating in high stakes fantasy football contests. Brian won more than 1,000 NFL contests on FanDuel last season and has won multiple league championships in the Footballguys Player Championship contest. A graduate of the University of Maryland, Brian usually spends his winters agonizing over Terrapins basketball. When the weather is warmer, Brian is known for his receiving prowess in flag football leagues on the National Mall in Washington, DC.