Week 17 FanDuel Lineup Tips & Picks
Just one piece of advice in the final week of the season: READ as many news items as possible. With the playoff picture all but set in the NFL, many teams have nothing to play for this weekend. Look for injured players to get some rest and younger guys to take snaps away from veterans.
Cash games can be tricky if you’re not using players from teams that have something to play for. When in doubt in cash games, lean towards the player with a defined role on a playoff contender.
If you’re new to daily fantasy football or you just need a refresher, please read my NFL DFS strategy guide here: Draft Kings vs FanDuel vs Fantasy Score
In that article, you’ll find that there are certain value thresholds that we need from our players in order to win the two main types of contests in DFS: cash games (50/50s and head-to-heads) and tournaments (GPPs and leagues).
- For FanDuel cash games, we need our guys to reach 2x their salary (Example: If Andrew Luck is $10,000, he needs to score 20 points to reach value).
- For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (In this same example, Andrew Luck needs to score 30 points to reach value).
Most of the plays below are for cash games. Tournament plays will have a *GPP ONLY* designation next to their name. Each week, we’ll review the previous week’s plays and track our success rate for both cash game plays and tournament plays. Our target goal for the season is to hit 60% of cash game plays and 30% of tournament plays. A “hit” is defined as reaching value.
- Cash game plays: 66/112 59%
- GPP plays: 7/27 26%
**NOTE: ALL PLAYS THIS WEEK ARE GPP-ONLY DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF WEEK 17 **
10. A.J. McCarron
$6300 (CIN -10, 41.5)
Points needed to reach value: 18.9
A.J. McCarron has hit 18.9 FanDuel points in just 1 of his 3 games this season, but a key weapon returns in Week 17: Tyler Eifert. McCarron has not yet enjoyed the luxury of playing with his stud TE and in a must-win matchup to secure a first-round bye, we should see the Bengals passing game in full swing as the team tries to get McCarron ready for a playoff start. While the Ravens shut down the Steelers’ passing game last week, don’t expect their bottom-third pass D to do it two weeks in a row.
9. Zach Ertz
$5700 (PHI +3.5, 51)
Points needed to reach value: 17.1
So, Ertz has 21 receptions in the last two weeks. He’s been in a staple in this offense in the second half of the season while healthy, so his price tag doesn’t make much sense. However, he will be extremely highly owned. If you’re playing just one GPP lineup, it may make sense to fade him. If you’re playing multiple lineups, you’re taking a huge risk in ignoring Ertz.
8. Jonas Gray
$4500 (JAX +6.5, 45.5)
Points needed to reach value: 13.5[the_ad id=”58835″]Gray was added to the Jaguars’ roster just a few weeks ago, but he looks to play a key part in week 17. With nothing to play for, the Jags will be looking to see which players will stick around for 2016. According to OC Greg Olson, Gray will be given “an extended look” this weekend and could conceivably lead the backfield in touches on Sunday. Gray has shown upside in the past and with a projected low ownership, he makes for a fantastic GPP play.
7. Kellen Moore
$6000 (DAL -4, 39.5)
Points needed to reach value:
This play is less about Moore’s talent level and more about this week’s situation. Moore and the Cowboys will host a Redskins’ squad that has clinched the fourth seed in the playoffs. With nothing to play for, the Redskins are the most likely candidate to rest starters this weekend. Against backup defenders, even Kellen Moore has a shot at reaching tournament value. Given his performance last week, you can be assured that he will also be less than 1 percent owned.
6. Sam Bradford
$6700 (PHI +3.5, 51)
Points needed to reach value: 20.1
Who in the hell knows how the Eagles will perform this weekend with the sudden firing of HC Chip Kelly? Bradford has been great recently with consecutive 300-yard performances and he will face an emotionless Giants team in week 17. Out of playoff contention, the Giants turned in a miserable effort versus the Vikings last week and I’m not sure why we should expect anything different this week. Based on matchup alone, Bradford deserves GPP consideration.
5. Rashad Jennings
$5800 (NYG -3.5, 51)
Points needed to reach value: 17.4
After being stuck in a four-way RBBC all season, Jennings has finally been given a lead back workload in the final weeks of the season. In the last three weeks, Jennings has touched the ball 24, 17, and 16 times, putting up 100-plus total yards in all three games. Given a similar workload this weekend versus a terrible Eagles’ defense, Jennings will just need to sneak into the end zone to reach GPP-value.
4. Austin Davis
$6000 (CLE +10.5, 47)
Points needed to reach value: 18.0[the_ad id=”58882″]Johnny Manziel has been declared out for week 17 with a concussion, so slingin’ Austin Davis will get the start versus Pittsburgh. As 10.5 point underdogs versus a soft defense, Davis will have ample opportunity to reach tournament value. Davis has scored 18-plus FanDuel in 20% of the games in his career where he’s attempted 20 or more passes. There’s zero chance he’ll be 20% owned on Sunday, so the numbers alone point to him being a good GPP play.
3. Terrence Williams
$5000 (DAL -4, 39.5)
Points needed to reach value: 15.0
With Dez Bryant on the shelf for the remainder of the season, Terrence Williams saw a team-high 10 targets last week. See Kellen Moore above. Williams will likely face backup defenders on Sunday and with another 10 targets, he will have a great shot of reaching tourney value.
2. C.J. Anderson
$5500 (DEN -9, 41.5)
Points needed to reach value: 16.5
C.J. Anderson was a popular play a few weeks ago when the Broncos played the Chargers, but he left in the first half with an ankle injury after totaling 54 yards on 8 touches. With his ankle fully healthy now – he rushed for 72 yards and a TD last week – he has the opportunity to take advantage of this great matchup again.
1. Tre Mason
$4600 (STL -3, 37)
Points needed to reach value: 13.8
Todd Gurley has been in a walking boot all week and the team promoted RB Malcolm Brown from the practice squad, so all signs point to Gurley missing the Rams’ final regular season game. Tre Mason was phenomenal in his rookie season and will a final shot in 2016 to see a featured workload. At near minimum price and given his lack of usage throughout most of the year, Mason is the top GPP play at RB and he’ll be much lower owned than the situation dictates.
For more DFS advice, follow me on Twitter @BrianJesterFF.
Brian has been playing fantasy football for 16 years and commissioned his first fantasy league at age 12. When he’s not writing about sports, you can find him playing every daily fantasy sport and participating in high stakes fantasy football contests. Brian won more than 1,000 NFL contests on FanDuel last season and has won multiple league championships in the Footballguys Player Championship contest. A graduate of the University of Maryland, Brian usually spends his winters agonizing over Terrapins basketball. When the weather is warmer, Brian is known for his receiving prowess in flag football leagues on the National Mall in Washington, DC.