Week 5 FanDuel Lineup Tips and Picks
In daily fantasy football, it is essential to find value for your lineups. If we want to be able to afford the top dollar names like Tom Brady and Le’Veon Bell, we’ll inevitably need to balance our lineup with less expensive players who provide upside.
If you’re new to daily fantasy football or you just need a refresher, please read my NFL DFS strategy guide here: Draft Kings vs FanDuel vs Fantasy Score
In that article, you’ll find that there are certain value thresholds that we need from our players in order to win the two main types of contests in DFS: cash games (50/50s and head-to-heads) and tournaments (GPPs and leagues).
For FanDuel cash games, we need our guys to reach 2x their salary (Example: If Andrew Luck is $10,000, he needs to score 20 points to reach value).
For FanDuel tournaments, we need our guys to reach 3x their salary (In this same example, Andrew Luck needs to score 30 points to reach value).
Most of the plays below are for cash games. Tournament plays will have a *GPP ONLY* designation next to their name. Each week, we’ll review the previous week’s plays and track our success rate for both cash game plays and tournament plays. Our target goal for the season is to hit 60% of cash game plays and 30% of tournament plays. A “hit” is defined as reaching value.
Last week, we hit 4/8 cash game plays and we hit our only GPP play (Jimmy Clausen did not start and was omitted from the value play records).
- Cash game plays: 15/30 50%
- GPP plays: 3/8 37.5%
It’s not often that you’ll find a profitable Jacksonville Jaguars stack, but hey, I did it. Allen Hurns was a great value play last week and he helped overcome the disappointing performances of Julio Jones and Melvin Gordon. Mark Ingram, another value play from this column, had a TD overturned (seemingly incorrectly), which would have put him near 3x value and a much higher cash for me.
Regardless, you can certainly cash in tournaments just by using value plays from this article. If you’re better at picking studs than I am, you could even win one.
On to the plays!
10. Brandon Weeden
$6400 (DAL +8.5, 49.5)
Points needed to reach value: 12.8
On Sunday night, Weeden led a game-tying touchdown drive in the final minutes to help him finish with 14.34 FanDuel points.
This week, Weeden faces an equally poor pass defense when the Patriots come to town, as New England adds nearly 18% more FanDuel points, on average, to opposing QB totals. Weeden may not be the most talented QB, but as a two-score underdog at home, he’ll be throwing a lot to get back into the game and makes for an excellent cash game QB if you go cheap.
9. Antonio Gates
$5500 (SD -3, 45.5)
Points needed to reach value: 11.0
After finishing as a top-5 fantasy TE in 2014, Antonio Gates returns this week after serving a four game suspension. All reports this week indicate that Gates will not be limited and that the team is excited to get him back on the field. With Malcom Floyd (concussion) and Stevie Johnson (hamstring) ailing, Gates will receive plenty of targets against the Steelers, who have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to TEs this season.
8. Doug Martin
$6400 (TB -2.5, 42)
Points needed to reach value: 12.8
Doug Martin finally had a breakout game in week 4, totaling 143 yards and a rushing touchdown despite trailing most of the afternoon. This week, Martin gets a potentially favorable game script for the first time all season as a home favorite versus Jacksonville.
Charles Sims will continue to steal touches, but a repeat of last week for Martin should be expected.
7. Kamar Aiken
$5800 (BAL -6.5, 43)
Points needed to reach value: 11.6
Kamar Aiken has been very hit or miss so far in 2015. In weeks 1 and 3, he combined for 1 catch. In weeks 2 and 4, he amassed 10 receptions for 166 yards and a touchdown. So why is this the week to target Aiken? Well for one, fellow WR Steve Smith is extremely questionable to play with four microfractures in his back. It will come down to pain tolerance for Smith, who hasn’t practiced yet this week. Aiken received four targets after Smith left the week 4 game and if Smith is unable to suit up this week, Aiken will lead the team in targets, making him an easy cash game play as your WR3.
6. Sam Bradford
$7500 (PHI -4.5, 49.5)
Points needed to reach value: 15.0
Sam Bradford finally had a breakout performance in week 4, totaling 24.2 FanDuel points after throwing for 270 yards on just 15 completions. Was his deep ball an aberration last week or is it a sign of things to come? Bet on a repeat this week; the Eagles still can’t run the ball yet they are favorites in a game with the highest Vegas total on the board. Add in the fact that New Orleans allows the second-most FanDuel points to QBs and Bradford has an excellent chance at 2x value on Sunday.
5. Willie Snead
$5300 (NO +4.5, 49.5)
Points needed to reach value: 10.6
If you watched the Sunday night game last week, you may have become familiar with Willie Snead. Snead had his best performance of the season (also, career), hauling in 6 passes for 89 yards. The most interesting piece to the Snead story is his snap count trend. It’s increased every week this season to the point where he was second in snaps behind Brandin Cooks on Sunday night. Snead has made the most of his opportunity and now in week 5, he plays in a game with the highest total on the board. The Eagles also allow 28% more FanDuel points than league average to opposing WRs, which is just icing on the cake.
4. Justin Forsett
$7200 (BAL -6.5, 43)
Points needed to reach value: 14.4
Forsett finally had a monster rushing performance last week with 150 yards on 27 carries. However, he surprisingly didn’t contribute in the passing game and was also held out of the endzone, which resulted in a 15-point performance on FanDuel. This week, Forsett gets a shot at a Browns rush “defense” that has allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points to RBs through four weeks. When you take into account that Crockett Gillmore and Steve Smith will likely miss this contest, we can expect the Ravens to feature Forsett that much more.[wlm_nonmember]
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3. Jay Cutler
$7400 (CHI +10, 44.5) – *GPP ONLY*
Points needed to reach value: 22.2
This game should set up perfectly for Jay Cutler. After missing one week with a hamstring injury, Cutler returned last week threw for 281 yards and 2 TDs. Now as a 10-point underdog, Cutler and the Bears should be trailing the entire second half versus a Chiefs defense that allows the most FanDuel points to opposing fantasy QBs. With Alshon Jeffery possibly returning this week, look for Cutler to have a huge game and reach tournament value.
2. Terrance Williams
$5900 (DAL +8.5, 49.5)
Points needed to reach value: 11.8
Terrance Williams saved his fantasy owners Sunday night with a late touchdown to salvage his statline, finishing with 3-49-1. New QB Brandon Weeden has not been in sync with Williams during his two starts, as Williams has just 3 catches on 12 targets. However, if there’s a remedy for their miscommunication, it’s the Patriots’ pass defense. The Pats are in the top 5 for FanDuel WR matchups so far this season, and while it may take 10 to 12 targets, look for Williams to hit 2x value on Sunday.
1. Kendall Wright
$5900 (TEN +2.5, 41.5)
Points needed to reach value: 11.8
Kendall Wright has been fantastic so far this season, scoring 3x his FanDuel salary in two of his first three games. In game 2, he was hobbled early and couldn’t get on track. Coming off a bye week, Wright will be welcomed back into action with a juicy matchup versus the Bills. While Buffalo presents an intimidating challenge for the Titans’ offense, we need to look at their performances so far. In four games, they’ve allowed 33% more FanDuel points to opposing WRs than league average. Wright makes for a great play in both cash and tournament lineups this weekend.[/wlm_ismember]
For more DFS advice, follow me on Twitter @BrianJesterFF.