Dynasty Football Advice: Week 11
Here we go with crunch time down the stretch over the final few weeks before the Fantasy football playoffs. Whether you are already in the playoffs or trying to win out and need help from two other teams to get the last playoff berth, it still doesn’t diminish your role as a GM of a dynasty fantasy football team. Teams who are out might start retooling for next year which gives you the chance to gain picks or players in trades. A playoff team might be in a roster crunch due to injury and forced to cut a non-starter player that they might not otherwise let loose because they need to pick up an emergency player off of waivers or bring someone up off of their taxi squad. Keep an eye on the weekly add/drop lists because one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Grabbing a player now might save you FAAB dollars next year. Even making trades for players who are not being used regularly on another team is doing your due diligence as a GM. Offering up a trade lets the other GM know you are interested at the very least and might lead to a trade in the offseason if not right now. Trading isn’t always easy but can be rewarding for the effort put into it. Some of the following players might need to be traded for but looking toward the future at this time of the year, you might need to look on another team’s roster instead of the waiver wire.
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As long as we are talking about trades I will start with a prime candidate for someone who you might not need to give up too much for in Ian Thomas on the Carolina Panthers. Thomas caught 36 of his 49 targets for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns while filling in for the injured Greg Olsen during portions of his rookie year. This year he picked up a rib injury in a preseason game and combined with Olsen being relatively healthy he hasn’t been used as much. As a matter of fact, he has two targets and zero catches. Add to that the fact that Cam Newton has been out and there has been talk of him not being back in Carolina next year and you might see a Thomas owner looking at him as having little to no value. Swoop in and offer a lower round draft pick or a player of similar value who has hit their ceiling and maybe they’d be willing to dump him. I never really had faith in the Carolina offense for consistent production until this year when they had to lean on Christian McCaffery so much because now they have an identity. Thomas can do what they are currently asking Olsen to do, work the seams and get yards in chunks a couple of times a game while exploiting a mismatch against a linebacker or a defensive back. He won’t ever do what Olsen did in his prime, but he can be a low-end TE1, high-end TE2. I have some shares of Thomas and I hope to acquire more in the offseason from owners who are looking to move on from him since he disappointed after a promising rookie year.
Here is a great scenario of a new team and a new head coach means a fresh start and better opportunities for a player. Ogunbowlae was drafted by the Washington Redskins and came to Tampa Bay the following year. His opportunities for touches were virtually non-existent both years, but now in his second year in Tampa Bay with new head coach Bruse Arians things are different. He has been worked into a rotation with Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones and has had occasional value because of his receiving ability out of the backfield. Through the first 10 weeks (including the bye week) he is averaging 3.1 targets per game and getting some spot work in the goal-line package with 2 short touchdown runs. If he continues on that pace for targets he will end up with another 21 for a total of 48 and if his catch rate stays the same (78%) he will end up with around 37 catches. That’s a marked improvement from zero over the last 2 years combined. If Barber or Jones establishes themselves as the RB1 and the other is deemed expendable, then Ogunbowale could be in line to pick up those vacated touches making him a player who is worthy of earning a roster spot on your dynasty team.
Here is a guy I took in two rookie drafts but I had to cut him in one league due to injuries at other positions. He just got cut in that league and I am going to pick him up again if the waiver request goes through because I believe in Justin Jackson and his production in college and his limited NFL experience. In his 4 years at Northwestern, he piled up 6,298 all-purpose yards with 42 total touchdowns in a power conference facing strong defenses geared toward stopping Jackson as the first option. He won’t blow you away with his speed but he is shifty enough to make the first guy miss and is always plodding forward. In a change of pace situation, he has averaged around 4 yards per carry in the NFL. He has the potential to get 15-18 carries per game once he gets used to the physicality of the NFL and gets out from behind Melvin Gordon in the Charger’s backfield. He needs to get healthy and train like he is in the NFL so he can avoid nagging injuries like the calf injury that made him miss so much time this year. Based on his portfolio of work so far, Jackson has me believing in him to the point where I am willing to take a chance on him where there is minimal risk.
Jarwin had his shot last year to solidify himself as the tight end for the Dallas Cowboys. Most games last year during Jarwin’s second season found him contributing inconsistently if at all. He had a couple of games at the end of the year where he seemed like he was putting things together, especially against the Giants in week 17 where he caught 3 touchdowns. Then Jason Witten decided he wanted to come back home to Dallas after a year in the broadcast booth so Jarwin’s value naturally took a bit of a hit. Even still, Jarwin was able to be a little more consistent and produce slightly more with his targets than he had last year. Jarwin is in his third year and has shown some development possibly because he isn’t being asked to do it all. Plus, I’m sure Jerry Jones loved the idea of Witten coming back so that Jarwin can be tutored by someone who has done it the right way for well over a decade. The last tidbit to follow with Jarwin is that he is in the last year of his three year deal and while the Cowboys have the best shot at retaining him he might end up chasing the money to a new home. Last year I wasn’t a big fan of Jarwin’s game, but he has shown more confidence and maturity that wasn’t there before. I picked up Witten for basically nothing this offseason before his comeback was officially confirmed. I hope I can get some shares of Jarwin before the start of next year. Although depending on his new deal or new team the cost of getting him might change so if you are thinking of it strike before other people think of doing the same thing and the price goes up.