NFL DraftKings Week One Picks
The first week of the NFL season is always a lot of fun, but when it comes to sports betting and DFS, you’re entering the weekend blind. New players, new coaching changes, and overall rust from not playing in the preseason can make the first week very difficult to scheme for.
Gridiron Experts published a helpful GPP builder article on Friday, which should help those looking to win it all. Still, this article will focus more on value players based on DraftKings Salaries.
DFS Tips
Before I jump into my DFS value picks, I’m posting this DFS player breakdown for new players, it’s advice on how to approach which slates to enter, and how you should think about building your teams.
Determining What Kind of DraftKings Player You Are
Before entering contests on DraftKings, it is important to understand what type of player you are. Your approach to bankroll, risk tolerance, and playing style will decide whether you lean toward guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments, 50/50 contests, or smaller field tournaments.
GPP Player
GPP contests, the realm of the adventurous and the daring, are designed for players who seek substantial payouts and are comfortable with volatility. These tournaments often feature tens of thousands of lineups, making it challenging to finish near the top of the standings. To succeed, you need to target high-ceiling players who may not be popular. The reward is significant if those contrarian plays hit, but the risk is that most weeks you will not cash. If you enjoy the thrill of chasing a big win and can handle losing entries as part of the process, GPPs fit your profile.
50/50 Player
50/50 contests are for players who prefer a steady path. The format is simple: finish in the top half of entries and you double your money. These contests reward safer lineups built around consistent performers. Chalk plays are not a negative in 50/50s, because you only need to beat half the field. Players who like methodical bankroll growth and less week-to-week stress are best suited for this style.
Tournament/Multiplier Player
Smaller tournaments offer a middle ground. With fields in the hundreds or low thousands, you still need ceiling plays, but you don’t need to be as extreme with contrarian picks. Lineups can balance safe floor players with one or two risks. This path works well if you want a shot at meaningful profit without the near-lottery odds of massive GPPs.
Ultimately, your choice should align with your bankroll goals and risk appetite. But remember, honest self-assessment is the first step toward long-term success. It’s about taking control and responsibility for your decisions.
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DFS Value Picks: Week One
DraftKings Salary: $5300
The Jaguars are home favorites in week 1 to take on the Panthers on Sunday in what could be a high-scoring contest. The total points for this matchup is 46.5. The Jaguars are 3.5-point favorites.
Lawrence is priced ridiculously low ($5,300) considering his offensive weapons and opponent. However, the reason I’m going to make him a focal point for a lot of my lineups this weekend is the coaching change.
Liam Coen brings a reputation as one of the NFL’s most respected offensive play-callers to his debut as the Jaguars’ head coach. As offensive coordinator of the Buccaneers in 2024, Coen oversaw an offense that ranked fourth in yards and points. Defensive coaches around the league praised not just his play design, but the sequencing of his plays, noting that he consistently stayed a step ahead of defenders. That level of preparation and game-planning earned him a spot in the top ten among NFL play-callers, according to a recent Athletic poll.
In Jacksonville, Coen has made his imprint clear. He worked closely with quarterback Trevor Lawrence, reinforcing footwork, timing, and mechanics. He also architected a plan for rookie Travis Hunter to contribute both on offense and defense, embracing an unorthodox dual role while maintaining continuity of responsibility. Coen called plays during the preseason while also managing his head coach duties, giving him valuable experience in balancing strategic oversight with execution.
DraftKings Salary: $6800
The Indianapolis Colts enter Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers with a retooled offensive line that still holds strong grades. Pro Football Focus ranks the Colts fifth overall, despite offseason changes that sent center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries to Minnesota in free agency. The departures created opportunities for second-year players Matt Goncalves and Tanor Bortolini, who were drafted in 2024 with the expectation they would eventually take over starting roles. After a full year of preparation, both now step into the spotlight, giving the Colts a younger interior line that has been praised for its athleticism and upside.
At quarterback, Indianapolis continues a trend of fresh faces under center. Daniel Jones is set to make his Colts debut after signing this offseason. His reputation with the New York Giants was shaped by inconsistency and constant turnover at coordinator, as he worked under Pat Shurmur, Jason Garrett, Mike Kafka, and eventually Brian Daboll as play-caller. Jones never found stability in New York, but Indianapolis presents a chance at renewal. The Colts are banking on his mobility and experience to blend with their offensive system. A change of scenery has revived quarterbacks before, and Indianapolis hopes Jones can be the next to benefit.
Taylor should be a safe DFS starter in week one. When I target RBs to add to my lineup, I look for players who get targets and players who can get that 3 point DraftKings bonus when hitting 100 yards (rushing or receiving). Taylor won’t be a huge factor in the passing game, but I’m very confident he cracks the 100-yard mark
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DraftKings Salary: $4900
Probably one of the highest ownership% players in DFS in week one, but how can you go wrong with the amount of volume he’s projected to get. The Packers have a lot of injuries to the WR group, and Golden will be asked to step up. Regardless of his performance this weekend, you won’t be able to add Golden to your lineup this cheap again all year.
DraftKings Salary: $4700
Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku will open his season at home in Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals, stepping into a favorable matchup with high expectations.
Veteran QB Joe Flacco is back under center for Cleveland. Flacco previously worked with Njoku during the 2023 campaign, and the two developed reliable chemistry. In a five-game stretch that year, Njoku totaled 30 catches for 390 yards and four touchdowns with Flacco directing the offense. That connection is expected to carry over as they begin the new season together.
The timing benefits Njoku, as Cincinnati struggled heavily to defend the tight end position last season. The Bengals allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, ranking last in the league in that category. With defensive focus likely to be on Cleveland’s running game and perimeter weapons, Njoku should see consistent opportunities over the middle of the field.
He’s a value pick and in a lot of my lineups week one.
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